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DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 12:56:12 AM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline


Hello my friends...

This past Friday as I was driving home and listening to the radio I heard the news that Eddie Money had passed at the age of 70, what a loss! Money was one of my favorite singers back in the 70's, he had that gravel sound to his voice that always lent me to believe that he would have been one hell of a good blues singer if he had ever decided to switch from rock & roll. Speaking of blues singers, earlier this year we also lost Art Neville of the Neville Brothers band, I saw them play several times when I lived in New Orleans, man were they good!

I can remember wayyyyyyyyy back when I was a teenager and thought 30 was old and 40 was over the hill old, and here I am now about to turn 60 in a couple of months....nowadays when I hear someone passed and they were in their 50's or 60's or 70's it makes me come full circle with the realization that life is not a forever thing and actually has an expiration date stamped on it that is hidden from view. To that end I think it would behoove all of us to not let a day go by without letting those special to us know that they are indeed special.

Onward to football.....Last week I only played two NFL games (Minnesota and Indianapolis) and one college game (BYU) and was fortunate enough to cash all three tickets, I did have a small parlay in college and a small parlay in the NFL and lost both, however, all in all it was a nice winning weekend.

While going over the most recent NFL line movements I noticed a few odd things, for example, the posted line on the Chargers at Detroit game opened with the Bolts listed as a -3 point road favorite and while 59% of all tickets have been written on the Chargers as well as 66% of all money wagered on the Chargers....yet the posted line has dropped off the key number of 3 to its current level of Chargers -1.5....why the reverse line movement?

Same exact thing with the Saints at the Rams, the line opened with the hometown Rams -3 and 69.39% of monies wagered has come in the Rams, yet the line has fallen off the key number of 3 and backwards to Rams -2. Same thing with the Jags at Houston, the line opened with the visiting Jags listed as +8 point road doggies yet 62% of tickets written and 73.64% of the cash wagered has come in on Jacksonville, yet the line has actually risen to Jags +8.5 or +9 depending on where you look....once again why the reverse line movement?

Makes me think that someone somewhere really likes Detroit, New Orleans, and Houston. This much I do know about the Chargers, they better be careful at Detroit because according to the ole history book since the start of the 2014 season there have been 36 instances of a team playing at home during the month of September and then going on the road the following week as a road favorite and those road favs did not fare to well as evidenced by posting a mark of 17-18-1 straight up and 13-23 ATS and to make matters worse for the Chargers, if we were to make this a road contest against a non-conference opponent (like Detroit is).....we find the road favorite posted a really shoddy mark of 1-7 straight up and 1-7 ATS!.....Give me DETROIT +1.5.

What is up with the New England at Miami point spread? It opened with the Patriots listed as a -15 point road favorite at Miami and has since ballooned up to New England -18 to -18.5 at most outs with a few shops hanging -19 on the game. Keeping in mind that ole Joe Public bets with what their eyes just witnessed, and in this case New England blowing out Pittsburgh 33-3 while Miami was on the receiving end of a 10-59 home arse kicking at the hands of Baltimore....its no small wonder this line is sitting where it is!

Dating back to 2003 Miami has been listed as a favorite over New England just once in 31 previous overall meetings, a closer look-see at the final result sheet reveals that the past four times New England has visited Miami they were installed as road favorites of -9, -10.5, -8, and -10, however, in those four meetings it was Miami that posted a mark of 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS....a little deeper look-see reveals that the Dolphins have actually defeated New England in straight up fashion the past two straight times New England has come a callin' and is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS the past five times New England has visited south Florida!

Me thinks New England will enter this contest a little "fat, dumb, and happy" after their huge revenge win over the rival Steelers and on the flip side of things, me also thinks Miami will enter this contest a little red-faced after their embarrassing 10-59 home loss to the Ravens last week. Miami knows they are headed for a down year as the odds maker set their seasonal win / loss tally at 5, however, I would expect the Fish to treat this contest as their Super Bowl.


I went to the ole database to see how road teams have historically fared when laying a huge number like the Patriots are laying, to my surprise I found that since 1985 there has only been one instance of a road team laying anything from -17 to -19.....this occurred in 2007 when these same Patriots visited Baltimore as a -18.5 point road favorite, when the smoke cleared that day New England had won the game 27-24 but the doggie cashed the ticket. Give me MIAMI +18.5.

While I was cross referencing the results of how these huge double digit home doggies had fared historically, I figured it would be a good stepping stone to take a gander at how double digit home doggies had done versus the O/U line, the thought process was to see if a preponderance of these games came in UNDER the posted total then that would add more fuel to the fire with regard to backing the double digit home doggie....to that end I noticed that since the start of the 2012 season double digit home doggies had come in UNDER the posted total in 23 of 29 contests for a winning rate of 79.31%! Give me Miami / New England UNDER 48.5.


Take care and be well

Jim



















_____________________________

Jim Campbell
Post #: 1
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 6:31:26 AM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline


Hello my friends....


In the interest of full disclosure, and also so I can brag a little if it hits!....In addition to my straight wagers listed for this week, below is a 6 team parlay that I also played earlier this week:


Bet placement date Sep 12, 2019, 1:54:35 AM
Bet type Parlay (6 Picks)
Wager: $50.00
Odds +4005
Ticket ID 2110539635

Status 0 of 6 settled
Potential payout $2052.38

Open
JAX Jaguars @ HOU Texans
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 1:00 PM
Point Spread
JAX Jaguars +9.5

Open
JAX Jaguars @ HOU Texans
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 1:00 PM
Total Points
Under 43.5

Open
SEA Seahawks @ PIT Steelers
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 1:00 PM
Point Spread
PIT Steelers -4.0 -110

Open
NE Patriots @ MIA Dolphins
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 1:00 PM
Point Spread
MIA Dolphins +19.0 -112

Open
MIN Vikings @ GB Packers
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 1:00 PM
Total Points
Under 44 -114

Open
CHI Bears @ DEN Broncos
Football / NFL
Sep 15, 2019, 4:25 PM
Point Spread
DEN Broncos +2.5 -110


Wish me luck!


Jim





< Message edited by DIRTYDOG -- 9/15/2019 6:49:51 AM >


_____________________________

Jim Campbell

(in reply to DIRTYDOG)
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RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 9:36:52 AM   
B_A


Posts: 2232
Joined: 1/1/2004
From: WISCONSIN
Status: offline
Good luck Jim and thanks for the great information.

_____________________________

"It Always Looks Easier The Next Day!"

(in reply to DIRTYDOG)
Post #: 3
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 11:08:26 AM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline


Hello my friends.....

I know I won't have time later today to do another write up and have plans tomorrow afternoon and evening so I going to go ahead and post my Monday Night Football selection and thoughts now and its going to be on the J.E.T.S Jets Jets Jets +6.5 points, I seriously doubt the line will move to a solid +7 but who knows what Joe Public will do close to game time as he tries to recoup monies lost on Sunday?

Let's take a look at the line movement on this contest, the line on this Monday nighter opened with the home town Jets installed as a +1.5 point home doggie last Sunday night against this weeks opponent (Cleveland) following the Jets losing 16-17 at home to Buffalo as a -2.5 point home favorite while the Brownies who were -5.5 point home favorites got thumped 13-43 in Cleveland by the visiting Titans.

However, by Monday afternoon the line had moved up to Cleveland -3 over the Jets with a quick buy back to -2.5, and that is where the line stayed until last Thursday when news broke that Jets QB Sam Darnold would be sidelined with Mono, once this news hit the line instantly moved to Cleveland -4 then to -4.5 then to -5.5 then to -6 and finally settled in at Cleveland -6.5...and all those line moves happened in minutes, not hours or days but in minutes!

I get the rationale with regard to Cleveland's pre-season hype of things to come with regard to them supposedly going to win the AFC North and the expectations of them making the playoffs with all that talent on their roster, and Joe Public expecting a huge bounce back from the Brownies after that home arse kicking they received from the Titans, add in the news about Jet QB Sam Darnold and you get an instant over reaction in the line....but is a 4 point line move really warranted?

The Jets will start former Denver starter Trevor Siemian who in turn has 26 career starts under his belt and a career passer rating of 79.9....Siemian will be stepping in for Jet starting QB Sam Darnold who has has 14 career starts and a career passer rating of 77.6...I am by no means saying that Siemian will be the better QB versus Darnold moving forward, however, what I am saying is that there is not that much difference between these two QB's at this point in young Darnold's career.

A couple of other factors to consider is that Jet running back Bell now has a game under his belt to shake off some rust and the Jets defensive coordinator is the infamous Greg Williams, like him or hate him, Williams is pretty good at what he does and as a bonus he was the Brownies defensive coordinator last season and improved the Brownie D. Williams knows the Brownies personnel and has an axe to grind for Cleveland cutting him loose. I think the Jets have a pretty good chance at the outright win here, however, I will take all those juicy points. Give me the J.E.T.S Jets Jets Jets +6.5 points over Cleveland!!!

Take care and be well

Jim









_____________________________

Jim Campbell

(in reply to B_A)
Post #: 4
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 12:45:49 PM   
Thomas


Posts: 30202
Joined: 9/2/2000
From: Canada
Status: online
Hey Jim hope all's been good to you this off season and of course gl today. I have the same thought as you on that absurd line movement considering exactly what you pointed out with the qb comparison, waiting to get a decent 7 then I'll join you on that.
I also threw in a 50 buck 7 game parlay but I didn't list it because I never win the frickin things but I do have one and it was all 1stq plays and it is officially dead !



4-2-1




< Message edited by Thomas -- 9/15/2019 12:58:48 PM >


_____________________________

Tom

(in reply to DIRTYDOG)
Post #: 5
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 2:37:05 PM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: B_A

Good luck Jim and thanks for the great information.


Thank you my friend and good luck to you today as well!!
Jim


_____________________________

Jim Campbell

(in reply to B_A)
Post #: 6
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 2:55:52 PM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Thomas

Hey Jim hope all's been good to you this off season and of course gl today. I have the same thought as you on that absurd line movement considering exactly what you pointed out with the qb comparison, waiting to get a decent 7 then I'll join you on that.
I also threw in a 50 buck 7 game parlay but I didn't list it because I never win the frickin things but I do have one and it was all 1stq plays and it is officially dead !



4-2-1

Hello Tom....

Spring and summer came and went wayyyyyyyy too quickly!! Boy O boy am I kicking myself for NOT wagering on Indy today, I thought Tenny might have spent too much emotional energy last week in their blowout win at Cleveland, I was just a little too leery of getting only +3.5 on a Colt team playing on the road again at Tennessee after playing in LA last week.

I really liked Denver +2.5 today at home against the visiting Bears and will probably kick myself for not at least putting them in a teaser, however, I just couldn't get past having to give up all that extra prep time to Chicago with regard to the Bears playing AT HOME last Thursday while Denver played AWAY on Monday night at Oakland....4 extra days of prep plus the home versus away....thats alot of weight to give up. Hard to believe whomever makes out the schedules for the NFL didn't catch that!!

Take care and good luck my friend!!

Jim








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Jim Campbell

(in reply to Thomas)
Post #: 7
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/15/2019 3:13:59 PM   
Thomas


Posts: 30202
Joined: 9/2/2000
From: Canada
Status: online
I had some pretty good info from PLAYER on a query that picked the Colts not to cover, 0-10 ats but I liked the Colts so I passed on that info. Same boat I guess, would've could've....



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Tom

(in reply to DIRTYDOG)
Post #: 8
RE: DIRTYDOG's NFL Sunday Week 2.......Good luck to all - 9/16/2019 7:10:50 PM   
DIRTYDOG


Posts: 2743
Joined: 10/10/1998
From: Pittsburgh, PA....USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Thomas

I had some pretty good info from PLAYER on a query that picked the Colts not to cover, 0-10 ats but I liked the Colts so I passed on that info. Same boat I guess, would've could've....






Hello Tom....

Just got home, as mentioned in my earlier post I knew it would be a late day for me as I had to attend a meeting. I know exactly what you mean about the ole "woulda shoulda's" as I have have many many of those myself. I was busy as hell today and simply did not have time to line watch....did a solid 7 ever materialize for the Jets / Cleveland game?

I was already locked in with Jets +6.5 and didn't want to risk the line dropping, still can't believe the line moved from 2.5 to 6.5 as their simply is NOT that much difference between QB's Trevor Siemian and Sam Darnold at this stage of their careers to warrant a 4 point line move in my humble opinion....I think the Jets will rise up and play with a little more focus and intensity as most teams do when they experience an injury to a key player and on the flip side of things I thing all the pressure in this contest is on the Brownies.

I went back and checked on how teams have fared after losing at home and then playing at home again the following week during the month of September, really no surprise as they play better and especially as a home doggie as evidence by the fact that since 2010 home doggies playing at home in the month of September after losing at home the previous week have posted a mark of 10-8 straight up and 12-5-1 ATS for a winning rate of 70.58%....make the home team a doggie of between +3 to +13.5 points and we see that the home doggie has posted a mark of 10-3-1 ATS for a winning rate of 76.92%......Go Jets!!

Take care my friend and be well
Jim






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Jim Campbell

(in reply to Thomas)
Post #: 9
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