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RoboCap - Selections for 9/14 - 9/10/2019 1:30:18 PM   
TheKingfish

 

Posts: 468
Joined: 9/27/1999
From:
Status: offline
Last week was killer. 
Conventionally .625 (10-6), but super on the weighted side (.658, 48-25).  For the season we’re at .625 and .655
respectively.  Beyond the obvious, there’s
some serious system rank-value going on. 
It most certainly won’t last at those levels, but it’s fun to be
up in the saddle.  With the Human
Administrator’s adjunct coaxing, the computer likes these for week #3:



1/6)
Buffalo(-4.5)/Liberty

2/6) SanDiegoSt(-16)/NewMexicoSt

3/6) FloridaAtlantic(-2.5)/BallState

4/6) Duke(-6.5)/MiddleTenn

5/6) NorthCarSt(-6.5)/WestVirginia

6/6) WashingtonSt(-7.5)/Houston

7/6) OhioState(-14.5)/Indiana

8/5) AirForce(+3.5)/Colorado

9/5) OhioUniv(+5)/Marshall [added]

10/5) KansasSt(+7.5)/MississippiSt [added]

11/5) NorthCarolina(+3)/WakeForest

12/5) IowaState(+2.5)/Iowa

13/4) SMU(-17.5)/TexasSt

14/4) BostonCollege(-21)/Kansas



Is there any staying
power here?  If you didn’t brush up
against the system during the past two weeks, it could be ready for a classic cyclic
tumble.  Accordingly -- it’s bound by the venerable
law of averages.  Or is it?  See below.



In the overall (all
games), last week was a boon for the Favorites (.578, 26-19-1).  That same category also holds favor for the
season (.549, 45-37-2).  A reminder – my
reporting does not include non-FBS match-ups and neutral-site games.



There are 48 on the
board this week.  That means ample opportunity
for young & old; tall & short; brawny & feeble; arrogant & humble;
brilliant & uninspired.  If only we
could choose from those…...

Good luck,

TheKingfish





From Wikipedia:

The law of averages is
the fallacious belief that a particular outcome or event is inevitable or
certain simply because it is statistically possible.  This notion can lead to the gambler's fallacy
when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply
because it has not occurred recently (e.g. believing that because three
consecutive coin flips yielded heads, the next flip is inclined to be tails).



As invoked in everyday
life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor
understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle.  While there is a real theorem that a random
variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the
law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance"
must occur.





< Message edited by TheKingfish -- 9/14/2019 6:08:13 AM >
Post #: 1
RE: RoboCap - Selections for 9/14 - 9/11/2019 1:47:53 PM   
vern

 

Posts: 5609
Joined: 3/17/2004
From: Austin
Status: online
u are taking names visor boy. keep it up. my roll getting fat!

(in reply to TheKingfish)
Post #: 2
RE: RoboCap - Selections for 9/14 - 9/12/2019 1:45:17 PM   
TheKingfish

 

Posts: 468
Joined: 9/27/1999
From:
Status: offline
Vern,Thanks for your continued interest. I don't always answer you, but for as few posts as I am able to generate -- I appreciate each and every one.
Good luck,TheKingfish




(in reply to vern)
Post #: 3
RE: RoboCap - Selections for 9/14 - 9/13/2019 10:07:50 AM   
bt_phins

 

Posts: 3507
Joined: 3/30/2006
From: CT
Status: online
Indeed! The cash printing computer has been kicking *ss!! :)

Great job, KF. Interesting that 9 of the 12 selections are favorites, including all 7 of the 6 ranks.

(in reply to TheKingfish)
Post #: 4
RE: RoboCap - Selections for 9/14 - 9/14/2019 6:11:48 AM   
TheKingfish

 

Posts: 468
Joined: 9/27/1999
From:
Status: offline

Thanks for the kudos/post.  As you
have noticed, the system is somewhat predisposed regarding the categories.  In order, it likes AwayFavs, AwayDogs, HomeDogs,
HomeFavs.  That’s not an order of my
choosing; I am merely the data collector/administrator.  As the season progresses, I expect all but
the HFs will systemically rise in quantity. 
In theory…....the quality for
all rises as well.



I like the above category sequence outcome, as anecdotally I feel there
is a (slight) long-term edge to betting away teams.  It’s nuanced of course, but it generally goes
with the thought of players: (1) loving favorites, (2) loving home teams and
(3) driving the line accordingly.

Good luck,

TheKingfish




(in reply to bt_phins)
Post #: 5
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