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Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 10:05:13 AM   
bt_phins

 

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I grabbed NE -15.5 this morning. Don't think BB will embarrass Flores but can't see how Miami stays inside that number. See it moving up already.

Pats -15.5
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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 11:59:25 AM   
Thomas


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damn Brian that number is so big lol but Miami is certainly in trouble here after that embarrassing shit kickin at home yesterday my my. Not sure how they fix that in a week and I'm also not sure if I can say this game is important because it's a div matchup. I did look that stat up over at the mine, season>=2002 and DIV and H and line>=14and it's not pretty at 0-6 su and 1-5 ats. Pinny, my book of choice, is already at 17, yikes


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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 1:10:29 PM   
bt_phins

 

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Don't see how this game will fit anything from the past, Tom. Miami is playing a team of misfits in hopes of the #1 overall pick. Really can't remember any team like this one. Not only is it bereft of talent, but also depth. Pats have so many options. Miami coaches have very limited options. Miami players not happy. Weird looking at a -15.5 in the NFL and feeling like I got a bargain. But that's the way it is for Miami right now. There is just nothing they can do to stop most teams, let alone the Pats. I hope I'm wrong. I don't mind losing (in fact, I really hope they get the #1 overall pick), but being embarrassed is something different. I'll take my chances at this # and let the chips fall where they fall. Vegas will have to catch up with Miami just like they did last year with KC (in the opposite direction, though!). They could be historically bad.

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 1:36:16 PM   
Thomas


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Agree with all that Brian, wish I would have been on the ball a little earlier. Interesting on the advance lines from PLAYER Miami opened at 3.5 week 1 and 8.5 week 2, both big jumps. Somebody didn't see the ineptitude early on that's for sure. So what do think Miamis game plan will be ? They may put all their effort in trying to stop from getting a beating again at home. Something I see is how Miami has played their half of the home div games against the Pat with a 5-1 ats record with 4 of those lines over 7, team=Dolphins and o:team=Patriots and site=home and (2013,1)<=(season,week). Not trying to dissuade you because you already bet anyways just throwing some thoughts around



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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 2:18:36 PM   
discogreg

 

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Miami always plays the patriots tough.

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 2:30:37 PM   
bt_phins

 

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Hey Tom - no doubt about that 5-1 ATS record. I usually like Miami against NE in Miami. But we have no offensive line and can't run the ball. That is the best chance to limit the beat down. Miami ran the ball 12 times for 21 yards against the Ravens. That's a 1.8ypc average! So if they can't run, then they must throw. Well that was a little better with a stat line of 15/32, 179 yards, 5.9 avg, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Not exactly lighting it up. And now they'll go against the NE secondary. If I were Fitzmagic or Rosen, I'd make the team get a medical insurance policy for them as they are going to get injured. Teams will live in our backfield with this O line.

And defense? No depth and few good players. Same story on this side of the ball. I didn't even know who was in their secondary yesterday. Lammons? Wiltz? Horrible.

Listen, I'm a Dolphins fan. And a passionate one. I'm in favor of the "process" in order to rebuild and improve. Really improve. But for this year, the sky is falling and I don't see any reason to believe the Phins will be competitive in most games. Maybe they'll get better but I don't see many winnable games on their schedule (Skins, Giants, Bengals?). The good news is that with all the draft picks they have in the next 2 drafts, they could get competitive quickly. At least I hope so. But I'm throwing any and all statistical trends out the window.

I'm not sure we'll be able to compare this team to many, if any, in the history of the NFL. Maybe the inaugural season of the Bucs? There might be others but I guess it doesn't matter.


Curious what Jim thinks about this too?

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 3:11:25 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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This line is unprecedented, guys. Went back to 1993 to find there has never (since then) been a team favored by more than -15 in Week 2.

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 3:22:24 PM   
life by the drop


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Is that the 1st Qtr line?

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/9/2019 7:19:17 PM   
shoeless


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you can bet brown and Thomas haven't learned the playbook yet which leaves edleman and dorsett

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/14/2019 10:59:03 AM   
bt_phins

 

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Weekend Update.

Liking my pick even more. So Miami lost their already bad starting RT in practice this week, Davenport. He's out, and new guy Webb (picked up from GB) will start. Not sure if this is an upgrade or downgrade but either way, he's new in Miami and will probably look like it. Miami also doesn't know who will be the backup to either tackle - that was going to be Webb's job. So again, NE will live in our backfield, disrupt the passing game and blow up the running game.

On D, Minkah Fitzpatrick has requested to be traded and Miami said ok. Not sure it will happen as they'll want top comp but either way, he's one of several disgruntled players, particularly on D. How focused will they be on the Pats all week vs trying to get out of town? Starting safety Jones is out so they'll move Minkah to his position (only the 47th position they've had Minkah learn and play - he's not happy about this). Wiltz will get more playing time and will most likely match up against Edelman. Yes, Jomal Wiltz. I can hear Brady worrying about this match up! Edelman might not sleep thinking about how wide open he'll be on every play!

Anyway, Miami is a mess. A beautiful, deplorable mess. Just don't see how they compete in this game, even with Flores' knowledge of the Pats. 42-9 and that will be with BB going conservative in the 2nd half. Just really hope AB stays out of the end zone!

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/14/2019 11:19:41 AM   
pgcluu

 

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did you guys see this? maybe a reason to pick Miami this Sunday....glta

https://www.miamidolphins.com/news/dolphins-will-wear-white-throwback-uniforms-in-2019

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/14/2019 1:39:15 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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Better put some throwback players in those throwback uniforms.


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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/15/2019 3:03:43 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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You nipped it, Brian. Easy peasy.

Me, the doubter, paid.

Congrats.

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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/15/2019 4:01:06 PM   
Thomas


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I went with Brian's thoughts in the end and took it at -18 Jim, he had it pegged exactly and never a doubt in that one, wow. Great look and analysis from Brian



< Message edited by Thomas -- 9/15/2019 4:02:05 PM >


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RE: Pats/Dolphins Week 2 - 9/15/2019 5:38:34 PM   
bt_phins

 

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Thanks, Jim. Wish it wasn't so out of hand with the pick 6's but I'll take it. Miami's offense was offensive! Congrats on the win.

Thanks, Tom! Glad you got on the train!

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