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NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/15/2019 4:46:20 PM   
lynchda


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NFLX Week 2 Plays

7-11-1 -2.2 units

The over now stands at 9-6-2 in the preseason, I am looking at some unders coming in to balance that out, all ½ unit plays:

CIN/WAS un 41 (-125)
Played this earlier in the week, can get +105 on this now, damn. Two anemic offenses and WAS has a bad O-line. Hoskins was running for his life last week and looks like he will play 2 quarters this week. Cincy got 2 rookie QB’s as well and I don’t think we’ll see much of Dalton here so I don’t see many pts in this one. Plus Cincy on the rd for the second straight week with only 5 days rest.

OAK/ARZ un 40 (-117)
The Raiders are a bad team, but they did win last week over the Rams by a lowly score of 14-3. Carr will play some this week, but then its Glennon and Peterman who were ok last week, but the Rams don’t really care that much about the preseason. Murray will play a bit more this week, but then there are no-names behind him at QB and Kingsbury has indicated that he is not opening up the entire playbook this preseason.

NYJ/ATL un 44 (-115)
At 0-2 this year, the Hawks have now lost 11 games in a row ATS in the preseason. The avg total pts in those games is 31.8. Jets off a 31-22 loss to the Giants and ATL off a 34-27 loss to the Fish. But, deceivingly high scores – Jets only had 286 total yds and Falcons had 337.


Good luck!
Dave
Post #: 1
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/15/2019 5:20:09 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
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From: Southwick, MA
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Added, 1/2 unit:

+4 GB/BAL (-115)
The Harbaugh winning in the preseason angle comes to an end here.

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 2
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/17/2019 2:00:08 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
Joined: 9/25/2006
From: Southwick, MA
Status: offline
CLE/IND un 43 (1 unit)

Played earlier in the week, line is now 41.

The Colts may need Brissett for week 1 with Luck's lingering injuries so I'm thinking they will not expose him much here. Then it's Phillip Walker followed by Chad Kelly. Wallker was not good last week, but Kelly was pretty good. They only scored 16 pts last week with 13 in the 4th quarter.

Probably won't see that much of Baker here either I would think.

Both these defenses will be better this year, especially the Brown's D line.


Good luck!!
Dave

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 3
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/17/2019 3:45:53 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
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From: Southwick, MA
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Played the CLE/IND second over at 17 for 1/2 a unit - 17-22 pt middle opportunity.

CLE/IND ov 17 (2H) (1/2 unit)

Another 21 pt half would be just fine!

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 4
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/17/2019 4:28:13 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
Joined: 9/25/2006
From: Southwick, MA
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Added:

KC/PIT ov 45.5 (-120) (1/2 unit)

Looks like Reid is going to play his starters for the first half or almost all of it. No Big Ben for the Steelers so the are giving Mason Rudolph the start this week. Joshua Dobbs started last week. Rudolph was solid at home vs TB going 5/8 for 91 yds and 2 TD's with no picks for a 141.1 rating in week 1.

The Steelers have gone from a Pk to a 3 pt dog so that seems to reflect the fact that the news is out that KC's starters will probably play longer.

Pit is off a 30-28 win at home over TB while KC is off their 38-17 home win over the Bengals. So big pts in both of those and I think we should get more of the same this week.

I also had a system this was at work on this game that says to take the over in games with a home dog of 3' or more pts. This system has gone 16-3, 84.2%, the last 9 nines, but not quite qualifying here with PIT going down to a 3 pt home dog.

I still think we get a shoot-out here. Going back until 2005 there's only been two games in NFLX week's 1 or 2 where the total has been at 45 or higher. In 2014 it was PHI/NE with a total of 46' with NE winning 42-35 and in 2015 we had BAL/PHI with a total of 45 and the Eagles won that one by a score of 40-17. So 77 and 57 pts, respectively in these two games.

Think this line is set this high for a reason.

Dave

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 5
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/17/2019 4:59:01 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
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Added:

NE/TEN un 42' (1/2 unit)

System play that says to take the under if the home team won and the visitor is away for the second straight week.

The 3Yr*3 + Prev 3Yr*2 + Prev 3Yr*1 winning pct is 66.7%, including 20-8 over the last 3 years.

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 6
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/17/2019 5:12:14 PM   
lynchda


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Added:

DET/HOU un 40' (-111) (1/2 unit)

The Lions O is bad as we saw last week in scoring 3 pts at home vs NE while totaling only 93 yds.

Houston played Joe Webb the entire game last week in their 26-28 loss at GB. Allot of pts but the Pack had TD drives of 32 and 3 yards and the Texans did score 16 pts in the 4th quarter including a TD with 30 sec left in the game.

Watson may play here for Houston, but, if so, it won't be much. They also signed Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta'aum-Perifanos (yes, that does appear to be his real name :-) so he could see some action here. Their offensive line is hurting so their O may be off a bit tonight.

For the Lions, I can't imagine much play for Stafford in this one and Tom Savage is in the concussion protocol so he is probably out. They just signed Josh Johson and have Dave Fales on the roster who did not look good last week.

This should be an ugly low scoring game.

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 7
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/18/2019 1:58:46 PM   
lynchda


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From: Southwick, MA
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-2' NO/LAC (1/2 unit)

Line move is telling with the Saints originally opening up as a 3 pt dog. Sharps were all over that. I'm sticking with them even with the worse line. Think NO has the better QB rotation as well.

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 8
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/18/2019 4:56:34 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
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From: Southwick, MA
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On the Hawks and the under in the nightcap, 1/2 unit each:

+3 SEA/MIN

SEA/MIN un 41

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 9
RE: NFLX Week 2 Plays - 8/19/2019 4:40:46 PM   
lynchda


Posts: 3710
Joined: 9/25/2006
From: Southwick, MA
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Awful preseason so far, probably my worst start ever.

On the Broncos tonight and played it earlier in the week, unfortunately, so have it at a bad number:

SF/DEN -2' (-104) (1/2 unit)

Hopefully won't matter. Think Fangino wants these games a bit more.

(in reply to lynchda)
Post #: 10
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