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Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 12:45:29 PM   
bigtiger

 

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So here is my situation

I purchased 8K worth of furniture back in the spring and if the Astros win the whole thing, I get a check back for the 8K

So there is no out of pocket loss if they don’t win it all, just 8K coming if they win it again

Right now I can get the Red Sox in the ALCS for +130

If I put a grand on them and they win it at least gives me $1,300

If the Astros win and go to the series I’d be out a grand with no guarantees from there

I would guess if they played the Dodgers I could get the Dodgers at +170 or so?? If the Brewers probably +220??

I would need to put a grand on one of those at that point to guarantee a profit if the Astros lose

If the Astros won it all I would still be sitting with a 6K profit

So....hedge and guarantee a profit, or sit back and collect 8K when the Astros win it again??
Post #: 1
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 12:53:05 PM   
dollars

 

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The Dodgers in the series is favored over Milwaukee - 160 so I don't know that you will get a better price if Houston plays Milwaukee versus The Dodgers.

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"You fellas gonna pull them pistols, or are ya gonna just stand there and whistle dixie?"
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(in reply to bigtiger)
Post #: 2
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 2:40:31 PM   
bigtiger

 

Posts: 10361
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From: Houston Texas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: dollars

The Dodgers in the series is favored over Milwaukee - 160 so I don't know that you will get a better price if Houston plays Milwaukee versus The Dodgers.


If the Dodgers are favored they are seen as the better team, right? So it would reason that the price on Milwaukee would be higher than the price on LAD. I don’t think winning that series would change Vegas opinion that the Dodgers would have a better shot at winning than the Brewers

(in reply to dollars)
Post #: 3
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 3:00:31 PM   
dollars

 

Posts: 14208
Joined: 4/24/2002
From: California
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Sorry BT, I was thinking backwards...🙄

_____________________________

"You fellas gonna pull them pistols, or are ya gonna just stand there and whistle dixie?"
-Josey Wales

(in reply to bigtiger)
Post #: 4
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 5:13:42 PM   
bigtiger

 

Posts: 10361
Joined: 9/1/2008
From: Houston Texas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: dollars

Sorry BT, I was thinking backwards...🙄


I’m just trying to decide if I let it ride or hedge to some degree

(in reply to dollars)
Post #: 5
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 7:44:57 PM   
Gambrinus


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I'd hedge. The Astros are the favorites, but there's no guarantee they'll win it all. I'd want to be sure to walk away with something. I'd balance that with how much I believed the Astros will do it and decide on how much to bet from there.

Personally, I like the Astros to win it all, so I'd want at least 4K if they won. The Red Sox are have the best chance to beat them in my opinion, so I'd think about $2000 or $2500 or maybe $3000 in the ALCS. You're right, there will be higher odds on the NL team if the Astros win the pennant. I'd wager whatever I had left in the World Series after deciding how confident I was on a beating the Sox to ensure I walked away with a minimum of $4000 on the Stros repeating.

I could image circumstances where I'd go for it all or slightly hedge. If was hot and had a fat bankroll at that time, I might take a shot. In most cases, I'd be happy with less and a sure thing.

That's my take for what it's worth.

Good luck.

(in reply to bigtiger)
Post #: 6
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 9:37:53 PM   
bigtiger

 

Posts: 10361
Joined: 9/1/2008
From: Houston Texas
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That’s pretty much where I’m at

I put a grand on the Sox today at +125

Will likely add a bit, but I also might wait until after game 1, if Boston wins game 1 I could still get at least even money on them

If the Astros win game one I could wait it out and if they go up 2-0 sit tight

Appreciate the opinions boys

(in reply to Gambrinus)
Post #: 7
RE: Hedging Opinions - 10/11/2018 9:39:45 PM   
bigtiger

 

Posts: 10361
Joined: 9/1/2008
From: Houston Texas
Status: offline
And on the last part, yea if I was on a big roll right now I’d gamble on it

Had a GREAT hoops season last year but since then it’s pretty much been close to break even. I want to get something out of this for sure

(in reply to bigtiger)
Post #: 8
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