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Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/3/2018 12:44:24 PM   
sportspicks


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Guys thought we could have two separate threads here, one for picks and one for chatter. Fire away and good luck
Post #: 1
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/4/2018 3:32:36 PM   
Corndog


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5 7 14 trifecta box

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Post #: 2
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 7:09:31 AM   
jerryslowball

 

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Ok here goes. I hope I can finish post by post time😜😜😜😜😜😜😜😜
The following info found under xpressbet. Jon whites 2018 derby picks and strikes.

Facts that may influence your bet.
Last 10 years horses untraced at two produced no winners in derby. There have been 135 winners of derby who have raced as two year old. As of 2017 record in derby is 142-1 Justify and Magnum moon did not race as two year olds.

Last 38 years only two fillies have won.

Long shot special my boy jack deep closer crying out for added distance. Use in exotics . Depending on odds maybe worth a win ticket for 5 or ten bucks. Good magic is thriving in Churchill. He loves his surroundings.

Mendellson bettors. I viewed his last romp over seas. It was secretariatesk. Amazing. Now having said that 12 starters from UAE derby that came to usa for derby are 0 wins. Best finish was 5th. Also jockey and trainer combo on dirt is 0 for lifetime

Now for the good shit. I want to warn you all that I know more about nothing than most human beings😳😳😳😳😳😳
I came across a system called "derby strikes situation" I cannot explain as it is too involved but below are results. I will list horses by post position:
9 key factors to ascertain horse to win derby. System goes back to 1973!!
38 of last 45 winning horses have 0 strikes, 6 of last 45 have 2 strikes , one horse who with more than two strikes (mine that bird)

Horses with 0 strikes by post position # 2,4,5,6,10,11,12,14,18
Horses with 1 to 2 strikes #1,8,13,16 17
Horses with three strikes #7 (justify) ,3,9,19
Breakdown of last 44 races 24 of44 0 strikes, 13 of 44 one strike , 6 of 44 two strikes 1 of 44 4 strikes ( mine that bird) I hope this helps someone .

< Message edited by jerryslowball -- 5/5/2018 7:23:20 AM >


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RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 7:59:52 AM   
Michelangelo

 

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I hope this helps someone .

Yep. It's helping me with my "under" horses.

Only one horse on top for me. One thing I always look for when handicapping is a horse where you can say if he runs back to his last race he wins. Some people are afraid of a bounce or come up with all kinds of excuses for such a horse. Not me. It's simply if he runs back to his last race he wins and those horses win, win, win.

That horse would be:

Mendelssohn
ML 5-1

Good luck guys.

(in reply to jerryslowball)
Post #: 4
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 8:14:36 AM   
sportster1

 

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Like him. And how about Bolt or better still,HOFBURG for a nice exacta?
Startin to like that horse the more I look at him .

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Post #: 5
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 9:01:59 AM   
Rosie

 

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Gonna beat the Apollo curse as I just like Justify to much to ignore. The pace battle up front scares me to death but Smith might just take him off it and sit pretty in the 3 spot I hope.


#7 Justify to Win

#7/all exacta box

7 with (5,6,9,10,11) with all Trifecta
5,6,9,10,11 with 7 with all Trifecta


Good luck horse players

(in reply to sportster1)
Post #: 6
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 9:50:36 AM   
Alpine

 

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.50 tri 5-7/ALL/ALL



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Post #: 7
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 2:08:39 PM   
djlocks1


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$20 Lone Sailor to Win
$30 Magnum Moon to Place
$50 Audible to Show


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Post #: 8
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 2:50:05 PM   
shoeless


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this is one of the toughest fields I have seen in years with a muddy track also.  I don't see any horse running away with the race maybe down to the home stretch.

playing it safe
hofburg win and place

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Post #: 9
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 4:07:53 PM   
shoeless


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throwing in 6-11-9 tri box

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"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

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Post #: 10
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 4:20:01 PM   
sportspicks


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Going to play Bolt d'Oro $10 win $20 place $40 Show
Also win do the same with Audible.
My wife likes My Boy Jack.

My "official" pick is Bolt d'Oro.

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 11
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 4:28:40 PM   
Thomas


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5, 11, 14, 16 Box

Taking North Enders moms maiden name for a long shot win for 50 bucks #17 solomini


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Post #: 12
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 4:55:54 PM   
Thomas


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Dead last my long shot 



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Post #: 13
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 5:16:21 PM   
sportster1

 

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B O R I N G . I never play anything less than 8-1 and see why: super was $19,000 cos of 4th place longshot. I don't think I had anyone in the top half of the finishers. Now those 3 are gonna be 2-1 in 2 weeks. Boring again.

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If a man is standing in the middle of the forest speaking,
and there is no woman around to hear him, is he still wrong?

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Post #: 14
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/5/2018 5:29:32 PM   
Corndog


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14 sure took a dive in that race. Congrats to Rosie and Alpine.

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Post #: 15
RE: Kentucky Derby Picks 2018 - 5/16/2018 11:14:21 AM   
Michelangelo

 

Posts: 28595
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Nice job, Rosie and Alpine.

Now we need Preakness picks. Gonna be tough to go against Justify and Good Magic right back especially as another sloppy track is expected.

(in reply to Corndog)
Post #: 16
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