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Kentucky Derby Chatter 2018 - 3/23/2018 10:48:56 AM   
jerryslowball

 

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About six weeks to derby. Does anyone have any horses to keep an eye on for derby hopefuls. I am guessing that the unbelievable will occur . The year of the underdog. Let's keep thread going!! 😎😎😎😎😎😎😎. Let it ride!!! Mooosh! "I don't see why not ," I am on the pill"., and finally " I am having a good day".

< Message edited by sportspicks -- 5/3/2018 12:46:23 PM >


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RE: Derby 2018 - 3/23/2018 10:55:33 AM   
jerryslowball

 

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Bravado high byer 110
Boy jack 106
Snapper Sinclair 110

< Message edited by jerryslowball -- 3/23/2018 10:58:04 AM >


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RE: Derby 2018 - 3/23/2018 2:01:07 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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On the pill? Is your girlfriend trying to get you pregnant?

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/10/2018 9:51:33 AM   
jerryslowball

 

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Watched the Anita derby and Justify looks legit. Second place horse hooked him in mid stretch only to have justify look him in eye and extended lead too about five lengths.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/10/2018 1:02:33 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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Check out Mendelsohn's race in Dubai and tell me what you think. It's a race worth watching.

I think he's best and Audible is second best. Also like Hofburg who ran behind Audible in the Fla Derby.

I want to know what you guys think of Mendelsohn's race in Meydan.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/20/2018 10:01:45 AM   
jerryslowball

 

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Jim I saw the race. Wow it was sick great. He just kept extending. How long was the race?? He looks great.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/25/2018 4:25:35 PM   
Michelangelo

 

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That's what I thought, Jerry.

They (Dubai) don't show fractions for the splits the way we're used to here so I was going off a visual. That horse strode out from start to finish. Not sure I've ever seen a horse do that before. Not for a mile and 3/16.

Pretty sure he's gonna be my Derby choice even though overseas shippers have traditionally done poorly in the Derby.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/28/2018 12:17:37 PM   
Rosie

 

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Ive studied all these horses more than I have in years past and found a lot of good info on you tube of all places.  Got to be honest right now Im leaning Justify but haven't made final choice.  Should be a fun week leading into it with lots of horses working out and of course all the trainers telling us how great they all look.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/29/2018 2:24:59 PM   
sportster1

 

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Pretty early and pretty boring so far: My Boy Jack at early 16 - 1 and the other 7 (today) at less than that.
$1 super ($1 minimum at Churchill on Derby Day) of 8 horses boxed is $1680---I don't see it even paying that much with just those 8. And The Derby is always the best payer of the 3 races so we gotta find which 20-1 will hit the board. Plus we can drop a few of those single digit odds horses out of first and second place to save some up front money.
Looking forward to Wednesday for the posts so I can drop a cpl more horses, altho this year's entries are all lightly raced. Think I might put more weight than usual on the trainers this year. C'ya later in the week.

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RE: Derby 2018 - 4/30/2018 11:50:04 AM   
greek

 

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Continuing 2 ride with Vino Rosso / Javier Castellano $ across the board....

12-1 odds

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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/2/2018 11:31:10 AM   
North Ender

 

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Can't believe this my mother's maiden name is (Solomini)Should I bet the horse or save the money.I don't anything about horse racing.Need advise!

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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/2/2018 5:31:13 PM   
Alpine

 

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BET!!!!! you will never see it again.
Go $3 ATB 2 for you and 1 for Mom...GL




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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/2/2018 7:06:15 PM   
sportster1

 

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Best and easiest play might just be an exacta box....Thoughts:
For a week I've liked My Boy Jack (and why did his odds just double to 30-1?)
***I will do the supertri cos I don't even have 8 horses as possibles, so...
Audible and Justify 3rd or 4th (deciding if they have to go into place spot too)
Others for 2nd thru 4th: #14, #12 (just 3rd or 4th), #18 (ATB), #19 (3rd or 4th.)
Wouldn't a #10/19 box be amazing? Gotta do it !

What about Bolt at 8--1? maybe a token 3 or 4?

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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/3/2018 7:03:52 AM   
sportster1

 

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when the horses don't know what to do, you gotta go with the other person involved who does. Go with the JOCKS !

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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/3/2018 11:09:51 AM   
greek

 

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#18 will grind it out, the usual large field (ATB) $$$

nice sportster1

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Post #: 15
RE: Derby 2018 - 5/4/2018 1:18:02 PM   
tigerman

 

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Is Justify a Triple Crown
threat? Hold your horses
By Joe Sullivan
GLOBE STAFF
Gary Young, a serious buyer
and seller of thoroughbred
racehorses and the most respected
person
in the US
when it
comes to observing their race
preparation, thought Justify
looked like a Kentucky Derby
winner before he even ran a
race.
Now that Justify has won
three straight races in easy and
impressive fashion, Young
talks about a possible Triple
Crown winner. He compares
Justify with American
Pharoah, who won the Triple
Crown in 2015.
He is not alone. Bob Baffert,
Justify’s and Pharoah’s trainer,
raves about morning workouts
in preparation for Saturday’s
Kentucky Derby.Most analysts
say Justify is the likely winner.
Racing podcasts (there’s so
many I can’t listen to all of
them, but I listen to a lot of
them) give air time to guests
who talk incessantly about Justify
winning the Derby.
Why can’t I agree? There
are several reasons, and none
of them have to do directly
with the so-called Curse of
Apollo.
Apollo was the last horse to
win the Kentucky Derby without
racing as a 2-year-old. It
happened in 1882. Justify’s
three victories have been in
2018. The idea that he won’t
win the Derby because he
didn’t race as a 2-year-old is ridiculous.
He could lose for other
reasons, however.
To start with, he hasn’t
faced any serious challenges.
He did repel Bolt D’oro in the
Santa Anita Derby but he benefited
from getting an easy lead
and then relaxed while running
undemanding fractions.
Turning for home, he drifted
toward the middle of the
track, then in midstretch he
angled back toward the rail. It
was definitely the long way
home for a horse who had an
easy lead. With a repeat of that
behavior, he’ll encounter some
serious traffic problems in the
Derby with its 20-horse field.
So he’s had everything his
own way, in a number of ways.
That rarely happens in the
Derby.
However, the most important
reason I don’t like him is
that I like another horse—a
lot.
Mendelssohn ismy selection.
Mendelssohn’s connections
are also trying to overcome
something similar to the
Curse of Apollo. No horse has
prepared in Europe and won
the Derby.
Besides that, what’s not to
like? He’s trained by Europe’s
best, Aidan O’Brien. He will be
ridden by Europe’s best jockey,
RyanMoore. The ownership
group—Michael Tabor, Derrick
Smith, and SusanMagnier
—is one of the leading partnerships
in the world.
Another obstacle to overcome,
according toMarcus
Hersh of the Daily Racing
Form, is that O’Brien has won
only 2 of 61 dirt races in North
America andMoore has been
shut out in 18 races.
O’Brien seems undeterred.
“It’s a very different culture
and a new experience for us
all, but to have a horse going
over there with a chance is a
great position to be in,’’ he told
the Racing Post in England.
Mendelssohn has raced
mostly on grass. He has run
only one race on the dirt, but
what a race it was as he won
the EAU Derby in Dubai by 18
lengths. It was a visually awesome
performance.
His sire is Scat Daddy,
known for producing grass
runners, but his dame, Leslie’s
Lady, provides the genes that
sayMendelssohn will run well
on dirt. Leslie’s Lady also gave
birth to Beholder, one of the
great fillies or mares to run in
the United States ever. She
won four Eclipse Awards.
Shipping from Europe
might be perceived as a problem,
except thatMendelssohn
shipped to California to win
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
last fall.
And what a race that has
turned out to be.Most of the
horses that finished behind
him have returned as 3-yearolds
with big victories.
R Beckford just won the
WilliamWalker at Churchill
Downs with an impressive late
rally.
R Masar won the Craven at
Newmarket in his second start
of 2018. He’s running in the
2,000 Guineas at Newmarket
this Saturday and will be one
of the favorites.
R Sands ofMali won the
Prix Sigy at Chantilly in France
in his first start of 2018.
R James Garfield won the
Greenham Stakes at Newbury
in England in his first start of
2018.
R My Boy Jack won the Lexington
at Keeneland in his last
start and will be one ofMendelssohn’s
opponents in the
Derby . . . as will Flameaway,
who was no factor in the Juvenile
Turf but has two wins and
two seconds in 2018.
Unlike many European
horses,Mendelssohn will not
lag behind the field and then
have to overcome traffic to get
to the line first.He should be
in a good position early.
His biggest competition
might be GoodMagic, last
year’s 2-year-old champion.
GoodMagic ran third in the
Fountain of Youth back in earlyMarch
and lacked any kind
of late kick. He bounced back
by winning the Blue Grass at
Keeneland.
His trainer, Chad Brown,
who is one of the best in the US
but has never won the Derby, is
normally reticent, but he
couldn’t stop raving about his
colt’s preparation for Saturday.
“This is as good as he’s ever
worked,” Brown told reporters
in Louisville. “He won the
Breeders’ Cup last year off of a
really, really good breeze. It’s
really taken all winter and
spring to get him right to what
we see today, at his very best.
“He’s the best horse we’ve
ever taken to the Derby, for
sure. He has all the qualities
that I think it would take. He’s
a highly regarded 2-year-old
champion, has the right pedigree,
good looking, sound, and
enormous ability.
“Coming into a big race, you
try to read their body language
and see how they’re doing
overall. If you know your horses
individually, then you know
what their par is and this horse
looks to be in his zone right
now, mentally and physically.
“He’s givingme all of the
right body language that I’ve
seen from other horses going
into big races over the years. In
a way, you try to treat this race
like any other big race and
that’s what we’re doing and
he’s giving us all of the right
signs.”
Any horse that wins is going
to have overcome the Todd
Pletcher coalition. The best
trainer in America has four entries—
Audible,Magnum
Moon, Vino Rosso, and Noble
Indy—all legitimate contenders.
Vino Rosso is the most dangerous,
but he’ll need a fast
pace because he’ll be racing
from behind. Audible,MagnumMoon,
and Noble Indy all
have potential to be in good
early position.
Audible, a New York-bred,
has won four of five, including
the Florida Derby.
MagnumMoon won the Arkansas
Derby, but like Justify
he did not run in a straight line
approaching the finish. Noble
Indy was a gutsy winner of the
Louisiana Derby but he was
beating a suspect field.
Bolt D’oro, who chased Justify
home in the Santa Anita
Derby, hasn’t won a race since
September but will get some
support since he was regarded
as one of the best last year. His
trainer,Mick Ruis, still believes
in him.
“When he dropped from
first to fifth or sixth [in the
Derby rankings] after he lost
the Santa Anita Derby, every
week I just put more money in
a suitcase to come here to bet
on him Saturday,” Ruis told reporters
in Louisville. “That’s
how confident we are.”
Hofburg is an interesting
entry, but his owner (Juddmonte
Farm) and trainer (Bill
Mott) usually don’t get involved
in the Triple Crown. He
might hit the board on talent
alone but he’ll be a better bet
in the Travers at Saratoga in
August.
Overall, this is a deep, talented
group. Despitemy problems
with Justify, I’d be ready
to select him to win the Preakness
in his next start. You
could make a solid case for half
the field, and a few others
might run the race of their
lives and pull off an upset.
How I bet will depend on
Mendelssohn’s odds and
whether there’s enough value
in the win bet. Otherwise, I’ll
be playing exactas withMendelssohn
and GoodMagic on
top, using Flameaway, Audible,
Hofburg, and Vino Rosso underneath.
And one last bet. I’ll buy a
Justfy-Mendelssohn exacta just
in case all those people are
right.
Selections: 1.Mendelssohn;
2. GoodMagic; 3. Vino
Rosso.
Joe Sullivan can be reached at
joseph.sullivan@globe.com.
Follow him on Twitter

(in reply to greek)
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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/4/2018 6:45:06 PM   
sportster1

 

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kinda redic, tigerman? Couldn't u just post a link to the Globe if we wanted to read it.
(The Globe---all the news that's fit to make up !)
There's hundreds of those columns on the internet. Thx for the effort but...

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RE: Derby 2018 - 5/5/2018 8:00:59 AM   
Michelangelo

 

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tigerman, thanks. All info helps.

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Post #: 18
RE: Derby 2018 - 5/5/2018 9:01:01 AM   
sportster1

 

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What is with JACK: he's now 5-1 so my early and best choice is now out for me..
Only undercard semi-longshot I have is #9 in Race 7.
I still have ATB for VIN ROSSO (like the jockey change alot) and a cpl other $2 scattered win and place plays. Got #14 atop 2,5,6 and boxed with 9, 11, 18.
I'll add something to the ex's 5,11, 18 tri box or else she might cut off my alimony.
My main play will be 9,11,14,18 exacta box and maybe a 50 c tri box adding in #5. ($30)
good luck to all. Today's usually our shot at big payoffs. Hope the rain stops by 5pm

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Post #: 19
RE: Derby 2018 - 5/5/2018 9:44:40 AM   
tigerman

 

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Joined: 11/6/2001
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quote:

ORIGINAL: sportster1

kinda redic, tigerman? Couldn't u just post a link to the Globe if we wanted to read it.
(The Globe---all the news that's fit to make up !)
There's hundreds of those columns on the internet. Thx for the effort but...


Well I found a public link after all. Sorry. I thought it was just in the online edition of the paper which you need a subscription in order to access.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2018/05/03/justify-triple-crown-threat-hold-your-horses/qhVT4vL4xxDhdmYEEzRWOJ/story.html?p1=Article_Recommended_ReadMore_Pos7



< Message edited by tigerman -- 5/5/2018 11:23:59 AM >

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Post #: 20
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