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0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 1:43:38 PM   
TobyScot

 

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Been over a decade since i posted here back when it was talksport. I lurk here from time to time and this has always been my favorite site for certain info and no drama. I thought i would contribute with an angle that rarely comes up. I have posted things here before and some have won and some have lost. I'm sure this angle will be in the Northcoast Scorebook next year as when i posted an angle years ago about beating the Superbowl champs in playoffs next game you lose unless you are going to the bowl. Word for word those thieves took the angle and put in their book without giving any credit to the author. I just hope it wins.
Since 1978 when the wildcard round came into play teams are 0-8 straight up and ats in the conference semis after 3 consecutive division games. Small sample but to me its common sense which most of these games are. The skinny of this division games are always more physical than non division games and when you play 3 in a row and then have to go on road against rested, quality, home teams you have nothing left in the tank.
1981 Cincinnati 28-21 Buffalo
1981 San Fran 38-24 N.Y. Giants
1984 Miami 31-10 Seattle
1988 Chicago 20-12 Philadelphia
1988 Buffalo 17-10 Houston
1990 Oakland 20-10 Cincinnati
1992 Miami 17-0 San Diego
2009 Minnesota 34-3 Dallas
Been 8 years since it happened and in between the last one 17 years. May happen more frequently since the NFL might be scheduling more division games at end of the season for years to come.
Another angle which is small sample but once again makes sense to me. Teams overachieving winning on the road in a wildcard game after 3 consecutive division games to end season have not made it to the semis. Only happened twice 2005 Redskins lost in Seattle 20-10 and the 2013 Chargers lost 24-17 to the Broncos.
I think many people forget the Eagles D held the Falcons to their lowest scoring output last year at 15. Falcons are undefeated this year when scoring 20 or more this year and when they don't get to 20 they lose. I don't think they get the 20
I also believe the most under rated team in the league Vikings will shut down a winded team just like they did in week 1.

My plays Minnesota and Philadelphia
Good luck guys!
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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 2:19:30 PM   
greek

 

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Was already on Vikings -4.5 but this angle solidify's my pick 👍

Thx 4 the input .....

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 2:50:35 PM   
Thomas


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Hey toby good of you to chip in. I was looking at your trend to see if I could make a query for it which I believe I can if I have your thoughts right. Is conf semis the div round ? is one of those 3 div games the wildcard game ?

This is the Vikings 2009 and they actually don't meet the criteria that you laid out, they did beat Dallas 34-3 but they only had 1 div game in the previous 3 am I missing something ?



Lets figure it out and thanks for sharing, always nice to see someone who enjoys capping




< Message edited by Thomas -- 1/12/2018 2:51:49 PM >


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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 3:05:51 PM   
TobyScot

 

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Hi Thomas

The conf-semis is the game after the wild card round. That is what they called it in the old days. The play in 2009 was against Dallas who had a division game in the wildcard round against Phili and 2 division games to end season. You must play a division wildcard game for it to be active. All the teams on the road in the 0-8 angle i have listed the play was against them.

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 3:39:54 PM   
Thomas


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Oh that makes sense, didn't think that through and that should have been obvious with your 0-8 record, DUH ! Ok great and thanks for responding. I'll see about a query for that now, well after supper, lol



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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 3:52:13 PM   
Thomas


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Well we'll have to skip the database it only goes back to '89



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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/12/2018 5:42:32 PM   
vern

 

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on both of those large

points

ML

teaser

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/13/2018 1:34:32 AM   
Riderx

 

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Toby,

   Great thread!  I always appreciate posts that involved time & effort the ol' school way......pen & paper & alot of digging into the past the hard way.  Hope you post more.

   I cheated on this one......using just the 'puter & the d'b that only goes back to '01 for the playoffs.  But this might have you digging further back.

   Any team off a WC road game in the Pacific Time Zone:


   0-2 s/u
   &
   2-0 o/u

   curiously, both games were in '04...Jets+8' & Rams+7, now Falcons-3

   btw...short history says we will not see an NFC CC game between division rivals Falcons @ Saints, although we have had div foes face off in CC games in both conf before, the last 3 instance never had a home team win on the road in the div round, they all won at home...meaning at least one of the two (Falcons & Saints) lose s/u, if not both.


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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/13/2018 4:50:57 AM   
djlocks1


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Looked up the weather for the Atlanta vs Philly game.

Suppose to be around 30 with 15 mph winds at game time. Going to dip down to mid to low 20s as the game goes on.

Matty Ice won't have the comfort of the Georgia Dome or California.

You never know in the nfl but I think both defenses dominate and will come down to special teams and turnovers.

It will be interesting how the Eagles handle Foles because he can pile up interceptions in a hurry.

Prediction

Philly 17
Atlanta 12

Atlanta red zone problems continue.

Best of luck to everyone.


< Message edited by djlocks1 -- 1/13/2018 4:52:34 AM >


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Can't seem to find the right criteria .............

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/13/2018 9:04:23 AM   
Michelangelo

 

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Hi Toby. I remember you and your work. If I'm not mistaken, the Pats were at the beginning of their dynasty the last time you posted here. That's a long time ago. I used to enjoy reading your work back then. I still do. Welcome back and good luck.

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/14/2018 9:16:49 AM   
djlocks1


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Looking at that Minnesota game. Going to need a huge defensive effort.

Trying to predict this Jax at Pitt game. Steelers front 7 is tough. I think if Jacksonville wins this game they will have to hit some deep passes. I have to imagine a ton of people will be putting Pitt in teasers because expecting a Pitt vs New England matchup.

Going to be cold around the high teens but not much wind.

Crazy stuff happens in the nfl.

Prediction

Jacksonville 27
Pittsburgh 24


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Can't seem to find the right criteria .............

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/14/2018 9:29:23 AM   
Thomas


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Nice work Toby, 0-9 and counting plus a pretty good analysis on the game yesterday.  



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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/14/2018 9:31:22 AM   
Thomas


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Also what was your handle before this one ?



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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/15/2018 5:43:50 AM   
p8nter57

 

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Thank you very much. Got a push on Minny SU, but parlayed the two on the ML for nice payout.

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/15/2018 10:41:11 AM   
greek

 

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Thx Toby , took the last play of the game "Minnosota Miracle" but I will take it ....Jaguars +7.5 covered @ halftime ✌

< Message edited by greek -- 1/15/2018 10:43:25 AM >


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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/15/2018 10:51:20 AM   
SHERRIFF


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nice post. cya in another decade good luck :-)

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RE: 0-8 angle since 1978 - 1/15/2018 8:22:26 PM   
Chazbo

 

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Thanks Toby💰Hope you join in more often man👍

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