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Question for Microbro - 8/19/2011 10:39:36 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
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Why is it that the formula tuner's upper and lower window only apply to total and sides but not straight up? Right now, a formula picks all games straight up, but I assume that the window could apply to straight up formulas.
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RE: Question for Microbro - 8/20/2011 3:17:39 PM   
webman


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Joined: 10/4/1998
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The window refers to the difference between the actual line and the WinPicks line (the point spread predicted by WinPicks).

When picking straight up, there is no line to compare to the WinPicks prediction.  Therefore, there is no window.



(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 2
RE: Question for Microbro - 8/22/2011 12:07:43 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
quote:

When picking straight up, there is no line to compare to the WinPicks prediction.  Therefore, there is no window.


Let me tell you what I've done in the past...
I've used autohotkey to write a simple script. I basically create a strong straight-up formula and "copy and paste" all of the results in Excel. This takes a huge amount of time (4-8 hours) even though it's automated, and it ties my computer up completely. From there, I look at how accurate my formula is based upon the lines. I can tell how likely a team is to win or lose based upon Winpicks predicted line. It's very insightful. Furthermore, I can break the situations up as far as I want. Maybe my idea wasn't clear, because with time and effort, I've made this happen.

It's a shame that Microbro can't incorporate the lower and upper window into the formula as compared to the line. For example, if I wanted to create a formula that picked straight-up for games where the line was 0 to -3 points, then I could use the formula tuner to isolate those games from the past to create a strong 0 to -3 straight-up formula going forward.

Or equally effective could be a formula breakdown, identical to the one used in "Team History". Knowing how home favorites of 3-6.5 points did ATS and SUR in a certain formula could have amazing value.

Another wish I have, which is unrelated to the above, would be to have the formula (or system) for the power rankings. I think I could reproduce Winpicks results in Excel and then use Solver to come to a better and faster answer. Solver is very powerful and uses the same end goal as the formula tuner which is to find a maximum. Instead of a Monte Carlo system, if Winpicks had something like that incorporated I don't think it would take a week to tune a CBB for formula back to 1999.

Better yet, if you could incorporate multiple power raking systems into the formula tuner, then I'm fairly sure Vegas would have to close their sports books because the ability to form a consensus pick with multiple different systems (almost like the platinum picks idea) would absolutely crush the lines and totals.

Lastly, if you're ever hiring an 'ideas' guy, I graduate in Dec

(in reply to webman)
Post #: 3
RE: Question for Microbro - 8/22/2011 7:38:02 PM   
TahoeStorm

 

Posts: 15
Joined: 10/29/2009
Status: offline
Good suggestions all, and you'll probably see some of them installed in the future.

The 2011-2012 season about to begin will be my seventh consecutive using WinPick's Parlay Pack. I'm a database tech guy myself and am not easily impressed; WinPicks is one solid application and (most importantly) gets better all the time. Do you like and use the "Line Shifter" feature? That was my suggestion. Perhaps others suggested it too, but my point is we have software developers who listen to their clients and act on the information.

So, keep the suggestions coming. I can tell from your tone that you're one of the Winners.

Let's have a record breaking season. Actually, another one.

Cheers



(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 4
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