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Is there anybody out there?... - 8/23/2010 5:12:44 AM   
guitarno


Posts: 14
Joined: 8/12/2010
Status: offline
   Is nobody even going to comment on either of my last 2 posts? I feel like I'm talking to myself here. Looks like both of my previous posts have a number of hits, but no comments or answers? My first post was on the 17th, it's now the 23rd, and there's no new posts since then? Wow. Not much traffic here I guess. That's too bad, I was hoping to have a little interaction with other people using this software...
Post #: 1
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 8/23/2010 9:54:41 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
I replied, but ya it's dead here, which is weird. I try to check this forum for ideas but I've been fairly busy lately. Anyways, best of luck.

(in reply to guitarno)
Post #: 2
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 8/24/2010 12:11:34 PM   
guitarno


Posts: 14
Joined: 8/12/2010
Status: offline
   Hey, thanks for all of the replies, Goldenstar! I appreciate knowing that at least somebody else is reading these posts besides me. Hate to think I'm the only one currently participating in this forum. The apparent lack of traffic does seem a little weird. I do like the WinPicks PFA software though. I will continue to weed through the previous posts, and experiment with the software to try to get ready for the upcoming NFL season.

Thanks again...

(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 3
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 8/24/2010 7:24:35 PM   
LosEsco25

 

Posts: 1
Joined: 8/24/2010
Status: offline
Hey Guys, used win picks last year made some $$$ looking to tune in my formulas...

lets beat the man!

(in reply to guitarno)
Post #: 4
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 8/25/2010 7:42:35 AM   
guitarno


Posts: 14
Joined: 8/12/2010
Status: offline
Hey LosEsco25, How's it going?

  Thanks for throwin your hat in the ring. A question I would have for you, and goldenstar924, and anyone else who uses WinPicks is exactly what tuning strategies you use to tweak your formulas, and how you use the other features in Winpicks to handicap games. I have done this before on other software, and using excel spreadsheets to massage the stats to predict games ATS, but while I've been somewhat successful, I am new to this software, and I have a lot to learn about it in the few weeks before the season starts.

  I'm in a confidence pool, so I have to pick all the games, every week, and rate them from top to bottom. Right now, I'm just experimenting with some of the formulas from the warehouse, and some of my own, and trying to tune them for both high ATS% and high ATS Net Units. It doesn't really do me much good to have formulas that are 100% ATS, but only pick 3 games a week, because I have to pick all the other games too. So far, I have been tuning formulas for both high ATS% and high ATS Net Units checked in the same formula.

  I'm still trying to decide what stats to include in formulas and which ones historically are most significant in teams winning games ATS. I see some formulas that use all the stats, some that only use a few, all different combinations, and they're are optimized using different databases (Rolling AVG, Balanced AVG, Set to a Date,...), so I'm just trying to weed through all of that to see what seems to work with this system. Of course, like in other systems, and probably all handicapping, you can come up with a formula that picks 75% or more on previous games, but picks like shit on un-played current games, because all the teams, coaches & players are slightly different than last year, the law of averages, and so on. I've had that happen before in other systems.

  Anyway, just looking for ideas. If you have any thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

See ya around


(in reply to LosEsco25)
Post #: 5
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 8/26/2010 4:24:08 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
I use formulas that fall into two categories.
1. Formulas for the current season. I use those to create power rankings.
2. Formulas that go back at least 10 years, and usually until the start of the database. I beleive that you need a huge sample size. If it worked for 25 years it will work this season.
To get better %'s, don't select stats that are set to 0 when you tune. This way they will always stay at 0 and won't waste your time.

If you want to know which stats to include just figure out the correlations of win % to each stats. If you know how to use excel, then you can do this.
Or you can create one test formula and plug in 100% for every stat and see how it changes the ATS%. It takes time but will be fruitful.

Also, what what are your stats on your comp?
Processor?
Memory?
motherboard?
HD size and speed?

(in reply to guitarno)
Post #: 6
RE: Is there anybody out there?... - 9/1/2010 6:16:46 PM   
guitarno


Posts: 14
Joined: 8/12/2010
Status: offline
    I agree - you need to have at least some formulas that go back a number of years to balance things out. Those formulas may not get real high percentages, but they will be less likely to have really low percentages on some weeks either.

  I do know how to use Excel, but I'm not sure exactly how to get the correlations of win% to the individual stats. I'll have to look closely at the game info that's available in Winpicks & see if I can come up with a way to do this in excel. One really nice thing about this program is how easy it is to get at the statistical data and output it to excel. I haven't seen another program where the data is as accessible as it is in this program.

  As far as my computer, I'm running a dual core AMD 64 2.2 Ghz generic machine - Gateway GM5084. I have 4 gigs of memory, Running Windows XP Pro 5.1.2600 Service Pack 3. 2 Hard Disks, 1 is a 300 GB, 1 is a 1 TB, both are 5700. The motherboard is identified as C51G+MCP51. Not a great computer, but that's what I have.


  Do you use formulas exclusively to predict games, or the "Platinum Picks" feature, or just the power rankings you generate? I will probably use a combination of several things until I get a feel for what works well.


(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 7
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