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Formula creation, associated problems, and a few hints   Logged in as: Guest
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Formula creation, associated problems, and a few hints - 7/27/2010 2:24:58 PM   


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Joined: 9/1/2008
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I've been a user of winpicks for 5 or so years and believe no one has more experience creating and tuning formulas them I do. I have built entire computer systems only to get faster tuning times, including the new one I'm on now.
There are a few problems created with tuning formulas.
First and foremost, the lines change after the game starts. An example would be to get a very nice consensus ATS on BYU -7. You make the play and miss. After you update winpicks the next day, you find out the closing line according to the program was -5.5. Your consensus was 7-0 92% ATS over 3 seasons and now in hindsight it's 3-1 consensus for 58% over the same time frame. I wouldn’t play on this with YOUR money, but I just did with mine. Microbros has fixed this for this season with the new line adjustment feature, but that is still a lot of guessing as to line movement and deciding if the play is still worth it with a 5-0 90% consensus or a 4-1 consensus of 76%.
Secondly, Not all consensuses are the same. Tune 10 formulas and get hundreds of different consensus possibilities. Not all 4-1 consensuses are created equal, and it's not even close. What if the 4 on formulas are 62%, 63%, 64%, and 65% for an average of 63.5% on and the opposed formula is 72%. If you factor out the five formulas that aren't plays, and get analyze the 5 remaining you find that 5-0 =95% but 4-1 equals 80%. It still sounds nice but there is no way to isolate the exact sequence I just proposed. All you know is that if one formula opposes the other 4 then the consensus drops from 95% to 80%. You can't isolate that specific formula against the other 4. You are isolating the one of five random formulas against the other four. So how do you fix this. Only play on 100% consensuses.
I've put so much time into this that I don't want to give away all of my ideas, even if they are endless and still coming. I have had various success with the following...
-After 3 or 4 weeks of CFB or PFB, tune formulas season to date with any small rolling or balanced average database and tune them ATS. Create a lot of them. Get the %'s up in the 80%-100%. Use large windows and make sure the formulas include at least half of all plays. After this, create consensuses and play on games with 100% consensus with a reasonably large sample size, at least 7-0 or better. I must state that I haven't tried this for this last season, so I might be missing a step or could be wrong on some parameters, but there is something to this idea.
-After 3 or 4 weeks in CFB mainly and somewhat PFB, create a season to date formula, or a bunch of them. Make sure the windows are 0-99. Tune them to the highest SU% you can get. Then use the best formula to create a schedule difficulty chart under 'View'. This will give you an amazing strength of schedule formula that no one else in the entire country has and great insight that others don't. Pair this with other winning factors.
-You can use this same formula to 'Predict' and then 'Sides'. Don't worry about the ATS numbers, they can be at 50%. It will tell you what the formula predicts as winpicks favorite. I always like to look for winpicks line that differ greatly from Vegas lines.
-Become proficient at using winpicks with Excel or Calc (or any spreadsheet).

Aside from formulas, the platinum picks that I've screwed around with look less than stellar...
Winpicks should have paired platinum picks this with trend seeker alerts and not head to head games IMO.

Lastly, If you are experienced and want to share ideas or discuss Winpicks with me, I’m at
If you are looking for clarifications or are new, I most likely won't reply.
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