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confused - 12/14/2009 7:57:19 AM   
Redhawk

 

Posts: 82
Joined: 2/21/2005
From: Frackville
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I sent an email to ask these and didn't recieve an answer maybe you will answer me here or if your not interested in answering me maybe a customer will.

here is the e-mail :

<style></style>I'm confused ....I'll explain suppose early in the morning like today for instance syrcuse was a 2.5 fav the combo i've been using has it as a NO PLAY now I get home the line moved against me a full point to cuse - 3.5 now it qualify's why would it not be a play at the better "market price" of - 2.5 now it is a play at the worse price.....does the program factor in money moves ? You would think the more the line drops as a fav. or rises as a dog and the formula you use picks it won't it strengthen the pick the more the line moves in your favor??????????????   Secondly how do you enter the lines in when a home team is a dog with out switching the favorite into the false home team, which i'm worried could interfere with the trend factor when making picks?   Thanx,



< Message edited by Redhawk -- 12/14/2009 7:58:06 AM >
Post #: 1
RE: confused - 12/15/2009 12:37:03 PM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
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Most formulas have window betting zones before it will make it a play, for example a certain formula only will select a team if it falls between -3 and +3. It all depends on the formula you select.  Good luck to you and the Forum Mods will definately get in touch with you. They usually always help.  Hope to chat with you soon.  ........   Buddy580

(in reply to Redhawk)
Post #: 2
RE: confused - 12/16/2009 3:45:54 PM   
Redhawk

 

Posts: 82
Joined: 2/21/2005
From: Frackville
Status: offline
Bump for MIKe....second part of question please...

(in reply to buddy580)
Post #: 3
RE: confused - 12/16/2009 10:42:49 PM   
webman


Posts: 1647
Joined: 10/4/1998
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Hi Redhawk,

Buddy did a good job of answering the first question.  The confusing part is why the recommendation on the pick goes away even if the line is moving in your favor.  That's entirely because of the "betting window" in every formula as Buddy noted - if the betting window was opened wider the recommendation wouldn't go away, but the formula would recommend more picks than before and might become less accurate.

One thing worth noting is that the line on a game is often fairly close to the actual outcome.  Computer software that beats the line has to generate point spreads that are fairly close to the line.  For example, let's say that you were capping the Colts game on Thursday night and you came up with a computer formula that favored Jacksonville by 40 points, even though the Colts are unbeaten and favored by 3.  The tendency would be to distrust that formula because it is unrealistic.  You instantly know that there is no way that Jacksonville is going to win by 40 points.  Thus, instead of thinking that the formula has uncovered some hidden piece of information that that you need to bet the house, you're are probably going to the think that the formula is broken and that you shouldn't trust it at all.  However, if the formula picks the Colts by 1, then you know that it's calculations are doing a pretty good job of approximating the actual line.  In that case, Jacksonville +3 might seem like a safe bet.  All you need is a slight edge to win.

Regarding your second question, if the home team is favored, enter a positive number for the line. If the visiting team is favored, enter a negative number for the line.  Keep in mind that you don't have to enter lines unless you are keeping your own line folders (http://www.microbro.com/manual/sec6-1.htm), you can simply download lines by clicking on the globe icon.

Thanks,

Mike




(in reply to Redhawk)
Post #: 4
RE: confused - 12/18/2009 2:16:29 PM   
Redhawk

 

Posts: 82
Joined: 2/21/2005
From: Frackville
Status: offline
Thanx mike the only reason I enter my own line is when bookmaker or the greek puts out their over nights I can input them manually and see if the program likes them and possibly get a better line than if I would have waited
half of this sportbetting is beating the "market" LOL...

(in reply to webman)
Post #: 5
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