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reg Formulas - 11/10/2009 10:32:28 PM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
Status: offline
I have over the past few years played with hundreds of formulas and tuned and re-tuned them. Most after tuning give great past results. The problem is after tuning and looking for future results .... No Way. The results are poor. He's my question .. Have any of you had good results with formulas ? I am not sure what to do but some of these look great because they are 75% and sometimes higher with past results but as soon as you play them on Future games ... Forget it. Many loses.  Any suggestions from anyone including the Mod?
Post #: 1
RE: reg Formulas - 11/11/2009 4:06:43 PM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
Status: offline
Doesn't anyone have anything to say about this. If I am wrong ... Please tell me. I have been a customer here for a long time. Am I doing something wrong? If you have success, I would appreciate any suggestions you have. I am not even getting a response from a Mod. Maybe no one reads this any more.

(in reply to buddy580)
Post #: 2
RE: reg Formulas - 11/11/2009 7:33:01 PM   
webman


Posts: 1645
Joined: 10/4/1998
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Hi Buddy,

Try tuning the formula over a longer period of time.  The winning percentages won't be quite as high, but the formula is likely to be more consistent when picking future games.  It is also a good idea to use a group of tuned formulas in a consensus or with Platinum Picks.

WinPicks can generate predictions using several different methods - using one formula, using a formula consensus, or using Platinum Picks, which combines the formula consensus with trend analysis.  Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. 

A lot of users have success with individual formulas.   In fact, the WinPicks user with the highest winning percentages are those who use a single formula and ride it during a hot streak.  Of course, the opposite is also true.  The lowest winning percentages come from single formula users who ride a formula during a bad streak.  Using just one formula is analagous to playing the stock market with just one stock.  You can potentially get incredible returns (70% ATS or higher), but 40% or lower is also possible.  It all depends upon which stock (or formula) that you pick.

A formula consensus is more like a mutual fund than a single stock.  You are unlikely to get an incredible return, but there is much less risk than using a single formula. 

Platinum Picks is like a diversified stock portfolio.  Trends can cancel out bad formulas, and vice versa.  Because you are "diversified" and factoring so much information into your picks, there is a very good chance that you will make money.

Mike




(in reply to buddy580)
Post #: 3
RE: reg Formulas - 11/12/2009 7:39:07 AM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
Status: offline
Thanks for taking the time Mike. It almost seems like "flipping a coin".

(in reply to webman)
Post #: 4
RE: reg Formulas - 11/12/2009 11:19:54 PM   
warrentrump

 

Posts: 10
Joined: 9/29/2009
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Buddy,

Great question and I hope that my answer will be of some help. But before I give my advisement on your question please know I have only utilized the Winpicks software from the beginning of the NFL & NCAA Football year (including the NBA & NCAA Basketball).

I utilize the Formulas solely as a resource for creating Power Ratings, as that is what I can see the Formulas are. Nothing more, nothing less. I will NOT invest in a game simply based upon the Formulas. The Winpicks software is so dynamic that there are several different methods of handicapping you can utilize, as I am sure you know. For everyone, both old and new, I have been having great success with this software, and below I have detailed how I go about handicapping a game with this software.

First, I develop several formulas based upon different criteria (NFL example: first downs, ypr, points per 100 yards, etc.). Then, I utilize the concensus function to build a unanimous selection or heavy majority among the Formulas, to generate a list of the games that I will look further into investing in.

Then under View I start depicting each game by looking at charts of statistics, using different databases to see how each team has been fairing over that period. This allows me to see who is hot and who is not, and how these teams have been playing overall and of late.

Then I dig into how these teams have faired in similar situations using first situational analysis. I look over 4 years and then 8 years. It also allows us to see how these teams have conducted themselves head to head. Then I go further into specific situations by looking at the team history.

I then finish by looking at key trend reports and trend watch lists.

< Message edited by warrentrump -- 11/12/2009 11:20:41 PM >

(in reply to buddy580)
Post #: 5
RE: reg Formulas - 11/14/2009 3:56:48 AM   
TahoeStorm

 

Posts: 12
Joined: 10/29/2009
Status: offline
Howdy,

I rarely post here, but I've used WinPicks five years now. College & Pro, Football & Basketball. I like the approach posted by "warrentrump" and can see it as a money maker.

Here's an idea for Buddy:

Take your top half dozen formulas or so...make two additional copies of them...just give them different file names.

Now, you have three groups of formulaes, each with six formulaes. Tune one of the groups for the highest Percentage. Tune the second group on both Percentage and Units. Tune the last group for the best Units results.

Arrange your groups in the Consensus area of the program.

It's been my experience that when all three of these groups point to the same game, you've got a good strong pick.





(in reply to warrentrump)
Post #: 6
RE: reg Formulas - 11/15/2009 7:00:58 AM   
WINPICKSROOKIE

 

Posts: 6
Joined: 10/20/2009
Status: offline
Hi Buddy,

This is my first year using Winpicks....what I do is have 50 formulas for each the side and the totals...this is for football haven't attempted baskets yet...half are formulas that are high percentage this year only and the other half are high percentage over 3 years. I use 75% or above. I then put all 50 sides formulas in one consensus group and all 50 totals formulas in another group for totals. I use the majority option when getting my plays. I keep a record of each majority number of formulas ex: in the NFL using 2 majority the record is 119-6, 3 is 115-6 all the way to 2-0 for 15. I then get the Platinum Picks and compare. When my picks agree with the Platinum picks I give each play a rating for betting purposes 20* = a match with a Platinum Pick and my consensus pick, 10* = a match of a strong play from Platinum Picks with my consensus pick and 5* = a match of a possible play with my consensus pick.

todays plays are:
Sides
20*Buffalo +8.5
20*Arizona -8.5
20*New England +2.5
10*Washington +4

Totals
20*Det/Minn over47.5
20*NEng/Ind over 48.5 (11 formula majority--these plays 14-0)
10* Buff/Tenn over 41
10*TB/Mia over 43
10*Phil/SD under 47.5

Lets see how they do...best of luck

(in reply to TahoeStorm)
Post #: 7
RE: reg Formulas - 11/16/2009 3:15:23 AM   
WINPICKSROOKIE

 

Posts: 6
Joined: 10/20/2009
Status: offline
Not a bad day 6-3 for +35*, hope this helped you Buddy

(in reply to WINPICKSROOKIE)
Post #: 8
RE: reg Formulas - 11/16/2009 3:11:56 PM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
Status: offline
WarrenTrump, TahoeStorm, Winpicksrookie and Webmaster ..... At this time I would like to publicly thank all of you for taking your important time to share your thoughts with me. All of you are great for this forum and I hope that in some small way I can someday help each and everyone of you. I will try all of your ideas and let you know how they are coming. This Guys is what this forum is all about.

(in reply to WINPICKSROOKIE)
Post #: 9
RE: reg Formulas - 11/20/2009 6:44:13 AM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
Joined: 1/10/1999
From: Dayton
Status: offline
As a long-time Winpicks user, 10-years, I can tell you that the software will have hot periods and cold periods.  The key is to not reinvent the wheel when you hit a cold period.  The software does a very good job of picking "statistical" winners, but sometimes teams do not perform as well as they should, and the wrong side wins or covers.  That's a concept you have to get comfortable with to have long term success.

Tuning your platinum picks by eliminating marginal or bad formulas is very helpful for long term success. I try to use only formulas of 66.7% or greater in computing platinum picks.  Unfortunately I have not found a way to separate my ATS formulas from my OU formulas for this purpose, and I am hoping a moderator can help me on that.  For new gamblers, I would urge you to try to get the lines that the winpicks formula is using for your bets. Lines are very sharp, especially in NBA, and .5 - 1 point swing can make a difference. Betting early as the lines come out will increase your bankroll.

Hope that helps.

(in reply to buddy580)
Post #: 10
RE: reg Formulas - 11/20/2009 4:32:28 PM   
camper

 

Posts: 6
Joined: 8/29/2009
Status: offline
Buddy, thanks for your post.  This is my first year with WinPicks and although I'm still tweaking things to figure it out for myself, I have to say it has helped me out so far (been using it since start of NCAAF for all sports.)  All of the posts above sound very good and I will definitely test them.  TahoeStorms idea with a 1/3 each seems like something that would work well for me, given the time I have to handicap.  My main reason for posting now though is to highight something that you might try, to help improve your formulas, whatever schema you are using.

I've found (by testing) that if I just tune a formula by simply starting the tuner and letting it run, or using Night Shift, the formulas do indeed tune but I get better tuning results (and better W-L results) if I first tune against what I am looking to tune (I know... sounds crazy).  For example, I want to tune my formula for Sides, I start by running Night Shift and tune a bit for Totals and then a bit for SU, using Night Shift, mixing the values of the formula up for maybe 3-5 minutes each.  So now I have formulas tuned away from my Sides goal.  I finish by running Night Shift to tune back to Sides, and tune it for like 20 minutes each.  I've found that this allows the tuning mechanism to find a new and better formula than if I just tune out of the gate using the Side.  FYI, I don't create formulas manually (maybe in the future), I let the software do it and I only adjust the database for each of my formulas (using RA mostly).  I also only test against season to date.  Not sure if it's the best method, but that's what I'm doing so far.


Copy one of your formulas and give it a try.  Tune one the regular way, and then tune the other by first tuning 'against' it, for lack of a better term.  Takes a little more time, but I'm finding it's worth it.

My two cents, hope it helps..........

-Camp

< Message edited by camper -- 11/20/2009 4:39:33 PM >

(in reply to Gambling Fool)
Post #: 11
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