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Advice on Creating Formulas - 9/29/2009 9:09:41 AM   
warrentrump

 

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I am creating formulas for NFL and College Football Against The Spread. I have a few questions regarding the creation of these formulas for optimal use. I was not able to find the answers in the manual or the help section.
I am looking to create formulas that go back one season, two seasons, three seasons, etc. And I am looking to create two formulas for each number of season, one for percentages and one for units.  Please advise me on the best way to perform this. For example:  If I want to create an ATS formula, and test it over the past three seasons, under default database would I choose Season to Date, Rolling Average, Balanced Average or Fixed at Date (With the date being the start of the season 3 years ago)? And under Default Test Method how many dates should I go behind? Thanks
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RE: Advice on Creating Formulas - 9/29/2009 9:22:20 AM   
buddy580

 

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From: Hilton
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Warren .... I hope you get help here. Lately, it isn't happening. I posted a couple and got no response. I love WinPicks but I also need some help and/or suggestions.

(in reply to warrentrump)
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RE: Advice on Creating Formulas - 9/29/2009 10:07:47 PM   
webman


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quote:

Please advise me on the best way to perform this. For example:  If I want to create an ATS formula, and test it over the past three seasons, under default database would I choose Season to Date, Rolling Average, Balanced Average or Fixed at Date (With the date being the start of the season 3 years ago)?


You can test a any formula, regardless of which database it uses, over the past three seasons (or further back if you wish).  To do so, load the formula that you want to test.  Then, select ANALYZE THE CURRENT FORMULA from the FORMULAS menu, and select "Test Using Last N dates".  A menu then appears with all of the dates in the database.   These dates represent the start date for the test.  For example, if you pick "September 3, 2004" your formula will be analyzed from the present all the way back to September 3, 2004.

There is one exception to this, and that involves formulas that use a "Fixed at Date" database.  That type of database is anchored from a given date forward.  For example, if you specify November 26, 2008 as your starting point, the database will include all available information from that date through the current date.   That means, of course, that you won't be able to analyze a formula prior to November 26, 2008, because the database will be empty.  All the other types of databases will automatically adjust.  For example, a 3-game rolling average will always use a team's three most recent games prior to the date that is being checked. 


quote:

And under Default Test Method how many dates should I go behind?


The default test method can be set to any number of dates when you edit a prediction formula.  Normally, it will be set to "Season To Date".  However, you can go back further if you wish.  It's entirely up to you.

WinPicks will use the default test method for each individual formula when you select ANALYZE ALL FORMULAS from the FORMULAS menu.   If you start WinPicks and your formulas have not been tested for more than three days, it will ask if you want to analyze them.  If you answer yes, that analysis will also be performed using the default test method for each individual formula.


(in reply to buddy580)
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RE: Advice on Creating Formulas - 9/29/2009 11:52:02 PM   
buddy580

 

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Thanks Mike ... I found that info extremely helpful.

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RE: Advice on Creating Formulas - 10/1/2009 9:02:16 PM   
camper

 

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here's my take on all this, as i went through the same process, it appears, that warren and buddy are going through.  i've been a user of winpicks for about a month now, and originally i thought that the database chosen for formulas was the same set of data that the given formula was tested against.  however, as i understand it now (i might still be wrong, but i think i've figured it out) the formula database is only the set of data that you are analyzing, and the test method is how far back in time you would like to have that particular set of data "measured" for performance.

in the beginning, i thought "well, why don't i go back as far as possible to get the best results."  that is fine if you have lots of formulas to balance it out, but the farther you go back the more your formulas will be "average" ats.  this make sense, since over time, your formulas are only going to gravitate towards the mean due to the sample that you are testing against (much larger).  so, now i have changed my way of thinking.  i have a formula that goes WAAAAY back, but i also have multiple formulas that only test against the current season, as well as the last 3, 5, and 8 games.  for football, i only use rolling averages of x number of weeks, tested against y number of weeks.  personally, i only use the fibonacci sequence in my formulas.  in other words, x is 3, 5, 8 and y is 5, 8, 13.  so far, this combination of formulas has been productive for me.  i'll upload them later tonight if you want to try them.  formula names are SHARPIE, LET'S ROLL, and PERFECT TEN.

as far as tuning, i decided to use only two tunings methods, using the check boxes for best ats units, and the other being best totals units.  i created two groups of formulas (added "(totals)" to the naming of the totals formulas) and i tune each of the groups with the best ats units tuning file, or the best totals units tuning file, based of course on what they are meant for.  for the platinum picks, i check the box to not include in platinum picks for the totals formulas, since the groups of formulas are tuned differently, and i don't want to combine opposite sets of tuned formulas to get my platinum picks.  but, for consensus picks, i run winpicks consensus feature twice, and note/print the picks, once for sides using the sides formulas, and once for totals using the totals formulas (i created two groups that include sides and totals formulas and select them for the two consensus picks i run).

since i've done this, i've been on the winning side.  :)

software request:  it would be nice to run the platinum picks feature using only a group of formulas, much like the consensus feature.  that way one could run a sides and totals group to generate platinum picks.

anyhow, hope this helps, and good luck!

-camper


< Message edited by camper -- 10/1/2009 9:06:19 PM >

(in reply to buddy580)
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RE: Advice on Creating Formulas - 10/3/2009 4:04:10 PM   
buddy580

 

Posts: 51
Joined: 10/17/2002
From: Hilton
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Camper .... Great post ..... Thank you very much.     Buddy

(in reply to camper)
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