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Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 9/5/2008 7:51:08 AM   
trying2win

 

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When you fine tune a formula,aren't you actually "backfitting" it to what HAS happened NOT to what will.or should happen?
Thanks
T2W.
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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 9/5/2008 3:05:27 PM   
trying2win

 

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Looks like i answered my own question...BACK FITTING.
So why even try to fine tune something that most likely won't repeat itself?
T2W.......

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 9/5/2008 3:47:44 PM   
webman


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The WinPicks software implements a variety of different forecasting models (prediction formulas, trend analysis, linear regression, etc.).  Basically, forecasting models use data that has already been collected to estimate or predict the results of unknown future situations.  Similar methods are used by economists, weather forecasters, stock analysts, political analysts, etc.

The formula tuner is just one of the models implemented by WinPicks.  It uses a Monte Carlo technique that utilizes all of the available data from the past to increase the probability of successfully predicting the future.  The WinPicks reference manual describes the formula tuner here:

http://www.microbro.com/manual/sec8-5.htm

< Message edited by webmaster -- 9/5/2008 3:55:18 PM >

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 10/5/2008 7:35:11 AM   
HowDOG


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trying2win, I think what you are looking for is a crystal ball. Unless you have some special powers (in which you would not be buying any software to predict) All you have is past results to try to predict future results.
I guess you better stay at the roulette table.

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 10/6/2008 12:22:44 PM   
trying2win

 

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howDOG.....I can sum it up in one phrase"Figures lie,and liars figure"

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 11/5/2008 9:05:22 PM   
crazycanuck

 

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I think it's better to think of this software as a tool to your analysis of games rather than the ultimate predictor of the future.  At least from my perspective, I use it to alert me to potential games and I perform my own research as well. 

But any software, either here or in the financial markets, only can look at the past data points to determine a strategy.  The real problem is when one fine tunes the system only based on the past and doesn't do a walk-through to see future results.  You can then be overly confident about the results when you are really talking about a slight statistical edge.....

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 11/15/2008 7:38:35 PM   
skyblue1

 

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As a former horse player who used close to a dozen different handicapping packages, some of which definitely were backfitted, I ran a test on WinPicks before plunking down money.  Been burned a couple of times and that's two too many.

WinPicks definitely is not backfitting software.

_____________________________

Have a great life,

Bob

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 11/16/2008 8:31:09 AM   
trying2win

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: skyblue1

As a former horse player who used close to a dozen different handicapping packages, some of which definitely were backfitted, I ran a test on WinPicks before plunking down money.  Been burned a couple of times and that's two too many.

WinPicks definitely is not backfitting software.



Describe your definition of "backfitting", and how it's NOT related to this discussion?

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 11/19/2008 12:15:11 AM   
crazycanuck

 

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Yes, I'm curious as to what you're definition of baskfitting is.

Actually, I'm curious about what you expect in a system?  Frankly, I believe too many people believe there is one 'magic' system to predict the future.  This is true for the markets as well. (I also run trading models for equity and futures markets) 

One of the most dangerous situations arise if you buy into a system, whether it be sports or markets, and you win right away for a certain period of time. This is actually the time to be worried because there is no way that you can run elevated levels of winning percentage over the long term without pullbacks.  

If you bought a stock market system based on the late 1990's you would've made a fortune by buying the dips.  That's what a backtested system would say works.  But it isn't enough to predict the future changes in the actual market you're trading, drastically changing how to be successful.  Similar to sports, things can change.  You can have a system backfitted during a run of huge underdog wins, does that mean this will continue in the future?

One recent example is the NBA season this year.  I started off with a huge run of wins.  I was running 84% win rate.  This obviously cannot be maintained throughout the year, so I know that a losing streak will come about. This losing streak doesn't mean my 'system' doesn't work, but it's a normal part of any system.

There are no systems with 100% wins

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RE: Fine tuning,or Back fitting? - 11/28/2008 12:04:00 AM   
skyblue1

 

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Backfitting, as we horse players use the term in reference to handicapping software, is software that when tuned changes past results to make them look better than they would be otherwise.

In no way did I suggest, infer, or declare that backfitting was NOT relevant to this thread.  I was merely trying to shed some light on the subject.

< Message edited by skyblue1 -- 11/28/2008 3:31:06 AM >


_____________________________

Have a great life,

Bob

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