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Ways to make Winpicks significantly better - 9/1/2008 11:21:33 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
1. some formulas are useless because a formula will pick a play, the line will change, and the formula no longer picks a play. This usually happens at some point after kickoff/tip off and the next time you download lines. I don't know how to fix this but if there is a way please do. I actually use a 0-99 window on all of my formulas. This helps, but sometimes you can't tune a formula better than 52% because you have to include all games.
2. If I do tune a formula and (say for example) get 6495-5944-209 ATS record, I'd really like to have a breakdown on the formulas based on point spreads, H/R etc. This would a really great feature, and if you could do it on consensuses that would be even better.
3. In the trends section You can see how 1 team does after different situations. Please add a feature so you can see how 2 teams do. Example how do teams do after Team 1 Wins ATS by 7 Wins SU by 10 VS a team that was on the road and lost ATS by 16.
4. in the team history/trends please add "by less than". Right now I can see how a team did after they won by 15 but I can't see how a team did if they Lost by less than X. Consider adding a range. I'd like to see how a team did after covered by 7-9 points, not just more than 7 points.
5. Give users the option to weight the rolling/balanced avgs. If I use a 5 game rolling avg, the power ranking gives all games the same weight, 20%. I'd like to weigh game 1 30%, game 2 25% game 3 25% game 4 10% etc...
6. I tune formulas to get high straight up % and then apply then ATS. I would like to apply SU formulas consensuses to point spreads. Example in CBB I use 30 SU formulas to pick SU winners and then play anything pk to -5 ATS. If winpicks could tell me how well these picks do ATS without me having to backtest a season or two by hand I'd be happy. Along the same lines, and very similar to the first request, can SU formulas be broken down by point spreads to see how well they do SU. For example I tuned an 8 game rolling avg formula to get 73% straight up. I then isolated all games that were pk through -6.5 to see how well they did SU. For one year they were 92-86 Straight up. No where near the 73% of the entire formula.
Thanks for looking into these changes. I really think the formulas could be really strong but I haven't in 4 years figured how to make them profitable (except for CBB). I think if you implimented these changes they really could be. Also #3 would really make winpicks powerfull.

Post #: 1
RE: Ways to make Winpicks significantly better - 9/2/2008 9:54:53 PM   
WinPicks Support

 

Posts: 96
Joined: 11/26/2006
Status: offline
Thanks for the comments.  

1.   Formula picks are based on the current line.   If the line moves, a pick can change.   Having a large betting window on your formulas (0-99) should minimize the amount of times that happens.   On average, the closing line moves will average out when analyzing a formula's performance.  However, the rationale for making the original pick did not change, as it was based on the most recent line available.

2.  That is an interesting suggestion, we will consider it for a future release.

3.  This would be difficult to implement due to how the Trends engine in WinPicks works, but we can look into it. 

4.  Will consider for a future release.

5.  If we were to ever implement this, it would have to be done using a fixed set of weighting factors.    

6.  If I read this request correctly, having the ability to report formula results broken down by point spread ranges for SU and ATS, plus the ability to do it for a consensus would cover it (similar to 2.)

Thanks

WinPicks Support



(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 2
RE: Ways to make Winpicks significantly better - 9/5/2008 1:53:23 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
More Ideas
1. Can trends have a "revenge" seeker factored in?
2. Give winpicks the ability to tune a formula to be "worst" ATS, totals and SU? I would imagine this could easily by included.

(in reply to WinPicks Support)
Post #: 3
RE: Ways to make Winpicks significantly better - 9/5/2008 6:18:38 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
Another thought....
On the "Trends Watch Alerts" report next to the records column, could you add a Avg points for and Avg Points against column, similar to what is reported in the history viewer?

(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 4
RE: Ways to make Winpicks significantly better - 2/18/2010 7:52:21 PM   
goldenstar924

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 9/1/2008
Status: offline
For the first time in 4 or 5 years I decided not to buy the parlay pack of winpicks. I was hoping that some of my Ideas would be included but none were. Winpicks is good but the platinum picks were not taking it to the next level, and didn't impress me as a reason to rebuy for 9-10. I hope the changes made for 10/11 are better than last year. I have found a new reason to buy but the season for NBA /CBB is nearly over. It's new computer hardware that I'm about to buy. I think it might be able to improve formula tune time significantly. If there is any way to get a free version of the 9/10 full version now or after the NBA seaon is over I'd like to know. Goldenstar924@yahoo.com Formerly greenwave77@iwon Thanks.

(in reply to goldenstar924)
Post #: 5
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