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Successful NBA-CBB so far - 12/27/2006 4:14:20 PM   
ann

 

Posts: 113
Joined: 9/18/1999
From: Massachusetts
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I read the posts about developing real high percentage formulas than going against them.  I know a lot of people use the 'fade' theory in sports betting but it just goes against my nature.  What I've been doing and have made a pretty good profit so far this year is sort of the opposite of the way the poster gave on the go against method.  Every day or couple of days I make a copy of the formulas that have been doing 'great' and are dropping to 'good' and tune them for 7 minutes using the 'best ats' and 'best %' checkoff.  Then add them to my current consensus group.  Once a formula drops below 70% it is dropped from the consensus.  The next time I'm tuning the dropping down formulas I tune them too and add them back to the consensus if they are back up to 80 to 100% if they aren't I delete them all together.

I also noticed that for me at least the Totals in the NBA and the Sides in the NCAA work best.

I use only the Unanimous consensus and except for the nba totals don't usually bet the 1* picks.
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RE: Successful NBA-CBB so far - 1/5/2007 1:47:06 PM   
rprt

 

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Joined: 9/8/2000
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Ann,
I was wondering, how many formulas do you have in your consensus group? Also do you think that once conference play begins the formulas may not continue there high averages?

(in reply to ann)
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RE: Successful NBA-CBB so far - 1/15/2007 12:34:59 PM   
rprt

 

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ann,
Although you haven't been back to answer my other questions, I now have another question that anyone can can answer that reads this post. The NFL program uses much more information than the other programs. Why is that? and does that make the other three programs not very reliable. NCAAF & NCAAB basically only use conference variables. The NBA only uses travel information. What makes anyone think this information alone has any capability of picking a winning percentage except by random short term statistical probability which could begin to normalize on any single pick.


(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 3
RE: Successful NBA-CBB so far - 1/17/2007 4:29:40 PM   
ann

 

Posts: 113
Joined: 9/18/1999
From: Massachusetts
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rprt


Ann,
I was wondering, how many formulas do you have in your consensus group? Also do you think that once conference play begins the formulas may not continue there high averages?



The number of formulas varies depending on whether I've deleted ones that continue to be low - added new ones from the download site or formulated new ones myself etc    

Generally I've found that using a 5 to 10 game base is best instead of season to date.  Since the formulas are continually tuned I don't expect conference play to have an affect except to maybe be a stabile influence.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 4
RE: Successful NBA-CBB so far - 1/19/2007 9:37:11 AM   
Gungi

 

Posts: 6
Joined: 1/12/2007
From: Bloomfield, N.J.
Status: offline
For what it's worth I place all my winning record formulas into a 'winning' concensus group and my losing formulas into a 'losing' consensus group. The formulas are added & removed on a daily basis. I use the CBB app.

Also, instead of fading the recommend picks it seems like a better idea to look at your losing formulas that have lost two days in a row and go with those picks because if there is one thing I've noticed it's that after tuning my formulas to an over 70% winning percentage (rolling 6 game avg), the formulas rarily go more than two days with a losing record.

(in reply to ann)
Post #: 5
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