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Winpicks "go against" formulas week #10 - 11/7/1998 12:00:00 AM   
Slim

 

Posts: 47
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: Massachusetts
Status: offline
Play against these following teams:
Atlanta (3-0) +4.5
Baltimore (2-0) +2.5
New Orleans (2-0) +14.0
Carolina (2-0) +14.0
San Diego (1-0) +16.0
Tampa Bay (1-0) -3
Pittsburgh (1-0) +3
it does seem this system has been liking the favorites......Good Luck !!
Post #: 1
RE: Winpicks "go against" formulas week #10 - 11/10/1998 4:28:00 AM   
Slim

 

Posts: 47
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: Massachusetts
Status: offline
Could this be a sign of things to come? Go against system had a bad week... 2-5 overall and 0-4 with two formulas or higher. It will be interesting to watch next week if it rebounds or makes its way to the formula junkyard. Overall ytd now at 49-27-2 and 27-15 on two formulas or more. Atweak went 5-0 this week. That's two good weeks in a row...John H. should I do a re-evaluation and mix some other formulas that do poorly in there or try to stay with what I have?

(in reply to Slim)
Post #: 2
RE: Winpicks "go against" formulas week #10 - 11/10/1998 10:29:00 AM   
John H

 

Posts: 1336
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: toronto
Status: offline
I'd take a look at past performance on Atweak -- run it through a couple of earlier seasons -- it may be a formula that matures mid-season. I've got a couple of college formulas that do that, plod along and then pick up around week six/seven. If it has two winning weeks in a row, I'd keep it out of my go-against consensus at least till it starts losing again.

Back in the days when there was a lot of debate and discussion about formulae on the microbros board, before the pinheads took it over, there was a lot of discussion about how you wanted strong past performance in a formula, and I think that's a lot of crap.

I want a formula that is hot RIGHT NOW, not one that generated +x units per year over the last four seasons.

I'm in the process of monitoring my formula constantly -- a couple of bad weeks and I'll drop a formula from my consensus, three good weeks and I'll add a formula. I think you have to be fluid with it.


(in reply to Slim)
Post #: 3
RE: Winpicks "go against" formulas week #10 - 11/10/1998 10:49:00 AM   
Slim

 

Posts: 47
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: Massachusetts
Status: offline
Thanks, John. I was kind of leaning that way myself, but this is the first year I'm using Winpicks, so I didn't know the best route to go. I'm more or less testing it this year to see how it performs with different systems, while some of my actual wagers are the same as the program and some are different.

(in reply to Slim)
Post #: 4
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