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Winpicks...attn: John H - 10/17/1998 12:00:00 AM   
Slim

 

Posts: 47
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: Massachusetts
Status: offline
John, after reading your post last week about your go against formulas in Winpicks and your excellent pick with the New England Patriots from your winning formulas, I started playing around with the formulas and found that 8 of them were especially bad this year.( 1st,981,atweak,big1,big 7,dandydon,wideopen,xtweak)The highest percentage that any of these formulas are hitting is 38.9% with the lowest being 18.2%. I combined all these "go against" formulas into a consensus and so far this year if you set it at unanimous it comes back 13-31-1 29.5% - 21.1 units...if you went against the consensus formula you would be 31-13-1 and up 16.7 units year to date. If you only use a team that two or more formulas pick, it would be 18-5 and up 12.5 units year to date. I would be interested in your thoughts, and would also like to hear what your good formulas are picking this week.
A consensus of these formulas this week shows that it picked: Tampa Bay(2-0)
Jacksonville(2-0)
Baltimore(3-0)
Arizona(1-0)
Chicago(2-0)
St. Louis(1-0)
San Diego(1-0)
New York Jets(3-0)
You would play opposite of these teams.

[This message has been edited by Slim (edited 10-17-98).]

Post #: 1
RE: Winpicks...attn: John H - 10/18/1998 6:19:00 AM   
John H

 

Posts: 1336
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: toronto
Status: offline
I remember having a conversation with a service capper I used about three years ago who would give out a bunch of plays and I'd start arguing with the plays. I mentioned this to him and he said "If you have an actual opinion about the games, then you shouldn't use a service."

Using formulae is kind of like using a service -- either one is a true believer and follows them or one is a heretic and talks oneself out of winners.

I did a consensus of my four worst formulae (Atweak, Dandydon, Pickle, Johnboy and Surly -- which produce quite similar numbers to yours) and got TB, Buffalo, Baltimore (four hits!) Tennessee, San Diego and Dallas)

I found it interesting that I got four hits on Baltimore, none on Pittsburrgh from a consensus of my worst formulas and three hits on Baltimore, none on Pittsburgh, from my good formulas. Same thing happens with Buffalo, my worst and best formulae hit it, with no hits on Jacksonville either way.

Which to me would argue no play. I'm off Buffalo because of the Hilton consensus, myself. That's kiss of death, but because I don't believe in reversing a pick, I'm just backing off the play, not going the other way.

The other thing that distresses me is that my handful of decent totals formulas and my little clutch of bad totals formulae are ALL calling almost everything over this week.

I don't know if this is helpful, but I just woke up and it's the best I can do.


(in reply to Slim)
Post #: 2
RE: Winpicks...attn: John H - 10/18/1998 3:58:00 PM   
AKDave

 

Posts: 465
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: Anchorage
Status: offline
John H., I made a post under this section in which I mentioned changing the database on certain formulas to STD.

I have Pickle at 38.5% and -7.6 units. A change to STD makes it 71.4% and + 8.4 units. Dave


(in reply to Slim)
Post #: 3
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