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NFL WinPicks Formulas: Any above 60% - 10/12/1998 12:00:00 AM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
I'm looking for NFL Formula(s) for WinPicks. I've downloaded the 1997 Demo and can't seem to get above 58% ATS.

Thanks.

[This message has been edited by rms (edited 10-12-98).]

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RE: NFL WinPicks Formulas: Any above 60% - 10/12/1998 10:30:00 PM   
John H

 

Posts: 1336
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: toronto
Status: offline
If you have surelock, you can create some high percentage but highly selective formula by creating formulas with a single parameter (I've done so with rushing yards, Time of Possession, passing yards, etcetera.)

If not, email me, I can send you a couple.


(in reply to rms)
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RE: NFL WinPicks Formulas: Any above 60% - 10/13/1998 11:12:00 AM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
The two SIDES formulas that come with the demo produce good results... but they are HIGHLY variable. For example, DANDYON predicts about 62% ATS for 1997. But now change the rolling average from 3 weeks to 4 or 2 or 1 or 5 or 6 weeks. The thing totally falls apart.

What this tells me is that at the setting of 3 WEEKS is an ABERATION of the numbers which cannot be predicted a priori.

Would love to have the freedom to allow a computer program to allow more "non-linear" and "multi-variant" analysis. Having 30 variables which are all algebreically summed with various weighting factors is not a "multi-variant" analysis. While good, it's not enough... you can't scale for BLOWOUTS, Expected Margins of Victory vs. Actual Margins of Victory and all other kinds of popular concepts.

I'd love to see more models posted here. Thanks.

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RE: NFL WinPicks Formulas: Any above 60% - 10/13/1998 11:53:00 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8917
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
go to buck's unlimited-they have some good formulas you can download in the download section. also i have found using season to date, 3 stats, #weeks= to season to date and update each new week has produced results around 65% the last few weeks.

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"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

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