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still learning the ropes - 11/21/2006 7:26:29 AM   
undisputedtruth

 

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with regard to the formula tuner...  what exactly does test value mean?  can you give me an interpretation?  also what about the deviation? and, the progressive mode?  am I not looking at the right places for these things?

geez, I have a Masters in Math, and am familair with all these terms, but cannot fit the terms here to the context involved.

maybe I need to take another class  :)

can somebody help?

thanks


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RE: still learning the ropes - 11/21/2006 11:46:01 PM   
webman


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Hi,

The formula tuner is explained here:

http://www.microbro.com/manual/sec8-5.htm

Please let us know if you have questions after reading this.

We appreciate your business,

Mike

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RE: still learning the ropes - 11/25/2006 12:37:42 PM   
undisputedtruth

 

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Geez, this is humbling.... again, I know these terms, and understand them in certain contexts, but have some trouble here.

I have read that section but a few things remain unresolved.   I don't want to know any of your 'secrets' I just want to be able to make a mathematical interpretation of the numbers I get.

so, for instance, a value of 10 as a 'new' value.  does that mean that when regressing (so to speak) on that parameter, we need significance beyond 10 ?  (ie, a variable that would seem to be random).  that is probably not correct, but I cannot see an interpretation for it.

and if the progressive mode is not turned on, and it does not 'walk' away from original formula, I see that it still generates a new value.

Mike, I am trying to do as much reading on my own to cut down on questions, but just cannot find some things.

thanks
John



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RE: still learning the ropes - 11/26/2006 12:16:32 PM   
WinPicks Support

 

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John,

The "Test" values in the Tuner window display column are just the formula parameters that Tuner is testing when it runs.    When you start Tuner up, it reads the original formula file.   It then adds and subtracts random variations to each formula parameter, and tries the formula several times to see if the performance improved.   The "Test" values are just the parameters being tested each time Tuner tries the formula out (the original formula plus the random variations).    

If the formula performance improves, then the "Test" values are copied to the "New" values for the formula.     When you stop Tuner and save the results, the new values are written back to the formula file.     There really isn't a signficance factor that can be attached to the new values, they are just the numbers which end up working best in the formula.    

Progressive mode just means the "New" values become the starting point on future attempts.     If progressive mode is off, the random variations are always added to the original parameters.   If progressive mode is on, the "New" values become the original parameters for future attempts.

Hope this helps

< Message edited by WinPicks Support -- 11/26/2006 12:18:09 PM >

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RE: still learning the ropes - 11/27/2006 5:19:44 PM   
undisputedtruth

 

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hmmm...what I still dont understand is the test parameters MEANING.  for instance, one of the test parameters for points (the fourth game on the road (pts) is negative.  well, this must not be a test parameter in the same notion as a test parameter in a basic statistics course.   one might test say 100 points against a mean of 90 to see if there is a significant change.

so, how can one test a negative "points" parameter?

thanks
John

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RE: still learning the ropes - 11/27/2006 11:51:20 PM   
WinPicks Support

 

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The meaning of each parameter in a formula is described in the online manual:

http://microbro.com/manual/sec8-2.htm

For PBA:

"Weariness and Rest Adjustments - These parameters allow you to select the advantage (or disadvantage) given to a team when they are playing at home or on the road. For example, an NBA team that has played several in a row on the road is at a distinct disadvantage when playing a team that has been at home for the past few games. You can assign positive or negative point spread adjustments based on the number of consecutive games a team has played during a home stand or road trip. For example, if you assign a value of -5 to “5th Game on Road”, the formula will assume that the road team has a 5 point disadvantage due to the weariness caused by playing 5 consecutive road games. Likewise, if you assign a value of 5 to “5th Game at Home”, the formula assumes that the home team is well rested due to the long homestand and gives them a 5 point advantage."

In your example, having a negative value for the "4th game on the road parameter" is possible.   It just means a team will have points subtracted from their power rating if they are playing in the 4th game on the road.  











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