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Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 10/15/2006 9:45:26 AM   
HowDOG


Posts: 24
Joined: 11/23/2002
From: CocoaBeach
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People Post, you see that people view, but nobody replies. Does anyone use the program? Whats going on?
Post #: 1
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 10/15/2006 7:48:43 PM   
lain

 

Posts: 99
Joined: 8/18/2006
Status: offline
I wonder how many people have bought Winpicks? The Webmaster answers questions about no lines being posted or incorrect data I noticed. I guess we are suppose to study the game manual or something. I guess people think somebody else will reply.

(in reply to HowDOG)
Post #: 2
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/9/2006 7:27:41 PM   
JLaHawg


Posts: 536
Joined: 10/9/2006
From: God's Country
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I have the same impression...this room seems pretty slow...I think we just need to post our findings more and perhaps people will come out of the woodwork. 

I have both football packages and both basketball packages.  I have been fairly successful the the college football side.  Still kind of waiting for pro hoops to build up some stats and of course looking forward to college ball to get going. 

We need to start talking about how we use these programs.  Personally, I use Winpicks with a consensus of formulas to determine a group of games to look at.  Then, I will actually cap the game, look at the scammer picks, look at the intangibles that Winpicks can't pick up on, etc. 

Would love to hear what other people do with winpicks.



_____________________________

GO HOGS GO


(in reply to lain)
Post #: 3
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/11/2006 12:02:40 AM   
jarhead60

 

Posts: 171
Joined: 8/18/1999
From: greensboro, nc, usa
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Winpicks has a few problems..and one major problem. The Foootball part for the NFL is based on a regression from team stats in the box score.

That is the main problem....the box score stats are the result of the score, time remaning, down and distance, etc. The box score stats are the not the cause of the final point score. So you are chasing windmills. 

I don't have the current version of win picks, but the version I had didn't give any of the regression stats (R2 and all that good stuff), and was limited in the size of the sample, and was not user friendly in selecting the in and out of sample games to test.


(in reply to HowDOG)
Post #: 4
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/11/2006 6:51:12 PM   
JLaHawg


Posts: 536
Joined: 10/9/2006
From: God's Country
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If anybody who develops Winpicks monitors this...I would appreciate a response to this.

_____________________________

GO HOGS GO


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RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/11/2006 11:20:42 PM   
webman


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Hi Jarhead,

WinPicks doesn't work the way that you describe.  All predictions in the NFL version are made using a ranking system where the league rankings of the two opposing teams are compared to each other in each statistical category.  The weighting factors assigned to each category are determined by the prediction formula in use.  It's an extremely effective method that was invented by MicroBrothers and that has worked well for 20 years.  WinPicks determines the relative strength of the two teams and generates its own line.  This line is then compared to the actual line on a game, and a prediction formula will recommend picks when it finds lines that appear to be in error.

The NFL version of WinPicks includes a feature called SureLock, the Formula Wizard, that does multiple linear regression to optimize the weighting factors in a formula.   However, SureLock only builds formulas, it doesn't make predictions.  The Winpicks prediction engine always works by comparing the relative strength of the two teams.

JLaHawg - using a consensus group of formulas is a great way to use WinPicks.  You can use the Formula Tuner to fine tune the formulas in the consensus group to get even better results.

Also, to get a direct response from MicroBrothers about any question you have about WinPicks, send email to:  winpicks@microbro.com

We appreciate your business,

Mike

(in reply to jarhead60)
Post #: 6
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/12/2006 12:15:13 PM   
jarhead60

 

Posts: 171
Joined: 8/18/1999
From: greensboro, nc, usa
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Dear Mike,

To quote from my version of Winpicks "SureLock produces prediction formulas using a multiple linear regression model...The output from our model, y, is the projected margin of victory of the home team over the visiting team." The version I have is not the current version.

Your reply did not address my main points.

1. Box score stats are a result of the score, down and distance, time remaining, etc. Box score stats (other rthan TD's, FG, extra points, two point conversions and safties) do not cause the final score. The final score is not a function of rush yards, pass yards, etc. The box score stats are the input for the regression in Winpicks.

2. We argee that a regession is used by Winpicks. That regression is used to estimate the margin of victory.  Winpick (the version I have, which is several years old) does not show any regression verication  statistics, and there are limits to the sample size.

The use of regessions and other statistical methods to predict outcomes is common. I use regressions. Some people post predictions on http://mywebpages.comcast.net/tbeck/prednfl.html  and one can see the season to date results.
I don't post my picks there, and there are links to the people who post.




(in reply to HowDOG)
Post #: 7
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/12/2006 12:22:05 PM   
jarhead60

 

Posts: 171
Joined: 8/18/1999
From: greensboro, nc, usa
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see if this link works

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/tlbeck/prednfl.html

(in reply to HowDOG)
Post #: 8
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/12/2006 6:13:15 PM   
webman


Posts: 1647
Joined: 10/4/1998
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Jarhead,

I recommend that you get the latest version of WinPicks (you can download a trial version from www.microbro.com if you don't want to buy it), because discussing an old version is not really helpful.

But once again, regression is used by SureLock to build formulas and determine which stats correlate the strongest to the actual game results.  The formulas then predict the margin of victory by comparing league rankings as described in my earlier email.  Regression is not used to predict the margin of victory.  Also, WinPicks doesn't predict the score, just the point spread and the point total.  I am not sure how to answer your questions when some of your assumptions about the software are incorrect.

I'll try to give you an example of how it works. 

Offense and defense are always considered equally.  It works by league rank.  For example, consider an example where rushing yards is part of the formula.  Team A is 5th in rushing offense and 10th in rushing defense.  Team B is 15th in rushing offense and 3rd in rushing defense.

A Offense - B Defense = 2 rank advantage for B
B Offense - A Defense = 5 rank advantage for A

Total advantage for Team A is 3, and then that is weighted according to the formula.  All stats included in a formula are checked in the same way and then a point spread multiplier and a home field advantage are applied.

 
Mike
 

(in reply to jarhead60)
Post #: 9
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/13/2006 12:32:42 AM   
jarhead60

 

Posts: 171
Joined: 8/18/1999
From: greensboro, nc, usa
Status: offline
Dear Mike,

I downloaded the free program as you suggested. The program has had some changes, but it is still a program based on regression. I had said the program uses regressions to estimate winners. You said it uses power ratings.

The program says it uses regressions to generate formulas. The power ratings are generated by the formulas. Therefore the regressions generate the power ratings, and therefore the regressions generate the the selections of who will win or lose.
The key to the program is the regressions. Different formulas (generated by different regressions) produce different power ratings. Without the regression there is no formula, without the fomula, there is no power rating. The regression is the heart and soul of the program. 

Now WinPicks may support this site, so I don't blame you for defending WinPicks. And WinPicks is worth the price just for its 20 year data base. And it is fun to play with.

However, you still did not address my main two points...
1. Box score stats do not predict actual outcomes because they are a result of the score, down and distance, time remaining, etc. They are a result of the score, not a cause. Correlation is not causation. (Turnovers are very important to the outcome of a game, but to the best of my knowledge, can not be predicted).

2. The regression sample is too small and there are no regression validation  statistics given for a regression.

You said WinPick generated selections are posted somewhere on the internet. Please advise where they are so you can prove my #1 above is wrong.

NFL games are very chaotic events, so it is very difficult to win 60% of the games ATS as a bettor. And the point spreads are very efficent. And WinPicks may be the best program of its type. And using box score stats to predict future outcomes (even running the data thru a regression) is chasing windmills. 


(in reply to HowDOG)
Post #: 10
RE: Nobody Ever Replies to Questions - 11/13/2006 7:14:35 AM   
webman


Posts: 1647
Joined: 10/4/1998
From:
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Jarhead,

We wrote WinPicks.  I already answered your questions, but you refuse to listen to the answers and continue to stick to your false assumptions. 

Also, WinPicks picks are not posted on the Internet, and nobody ever said they were.   End of discussion.

Mike

< Message edited by webmaster -- 11/13/2006 7:19:09 AM >

(in reply to jarhead60)
Post #: 11
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