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PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 12:59:29 AM   
shoeless


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From: las vegas via boston
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another big week for plus30 as the majors easily went 2-0 and the minors went 2-1. the majors have posted 6 out of 7 winning weeks the last 8 weeks in what has been a tough year for many cappers. this brings the majors to 21-9-1 ats and the minors to 16-12 ats for an overall record of 37-21-1 ats. awesome, baby! this weeks picks are:

major plays:

the redskins(+64)(-2) over the cards
the giants(+45)(-19) over the eagles

minor plays:

the seahawks(+58)(-10) over the 49ers double digit spread
the broncos(+68)(-20) over the ravens double digit spread
the falcons(+65)(-19) over the saints double digit spread

please take it easy on those double digit spreads....that is why they are minor plays. my personal favorite is the redskins over the cards. coach gibbs is not going to let this year slip away from his team and the redskins still have an outside shot at the playoffs. the redskins are a far superior team to the cards and giving 3 1/2 points is not much to ask even on the road. i still like the giants as long as the line stays at -7. they need this win to stay in the playoff hunt and the eagles look just awful plus they lost westbrook last week. could be another blowout with the giants playing well at home.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood
Post #: 1
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 1:12:21 AM   
$BILL

 

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Thank you Shoeless, with this winning record, I don't think you will be shoe-less for long.

From your picks for this week ( all 5 FAVORs), It seems like dogs will have another week to sleep...

_____________________________

The first rule of business, protect your investment.

(in reply to shoeless)
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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 9:13:40 AM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
Joined: 1/14/2003
From: So. Cal.
Status: offline
Shoe,

Agreed with WAS -3.5 pick. WAS has few edges over CAR, defensive yards/rush (4.1 vs 4.3), pts allowed/game (19.4 vs 25.2) and offensive yards/rush (4.3 vs 3.1), etc. They are only one game behind MIN (7-5) in final spot of NFC Wildcard, Gibbs and CO have the incentive to play for it. GL!


(in reply to shoeless)
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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 1:28:51 PM   
crystal ball

 

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Shoe,

I think I can figure out the system, but tell me doe KC almost Qualify? +28/-10

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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 2:00:35 PM   
Ignatz

 

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I'm up a ton on these plays. Keep on truckin! Thanks

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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/7/2005 6:04:12 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
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From: las vegas via boston
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the chiefs are an almost qualifier.

note:

last week i took a 3 team teaser out on the bears, the broncos, and the seahawks all which covered even though denver was a ats loser. with these high spreads sometimes teasing offers a safety valve if you can tease a team down to -3 points or less. with a 3 teamer you can actually get more money back than you lay which makes it especially good.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 6
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/8/2005 8:27:56 AM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
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From: So. Cal.
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Shoe,

NYG should cover the spread by their key stats. e.g. defense on scoring (18.2 vs 24.0), yard/rush (3.6 vs 3.7), T/O (+12 vs 0). So is yards/rush (4.5 vs 3.7) on offense. The only clinker, PHI is in the late season divisional home dog situation. I took the game with lesser unit, but still think this should be a valuable one, since Westbrook is out as well as McMahon and entire QBs have been rattled and unsettled by the Seahawks on MNF. GL!

(in reply to shoeless)
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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/10/2005 12:43:07 PM   
pbo1

 

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From: Biloxi
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Bump

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Post #: 8
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/10/2005 6:32:51 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
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From: near Wash State University
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Plain Old Vanilla PLUS30 Model Results through NFL WEEK 13 using the following Criteria:

YARDS >>> WIN >>>LOSS>>PCT
15/15 ... 35 ... 20 ... 64%
30/30 ... 21 ... 14 ... 60%
45/45 ... 18 ... 06 ... 75%
50/50 ... 15 ... 04 ... 79%

Predictions for NFL WEEK14:

15/15 ...KC +3, WASHINGTON -4
30/30 ... WASHINGTON -4
45/45 ... WASHINGTON -4
50/50 ... WASHINGTON -4

This is just insane...

_____________________________


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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/10/2005 7:31:28 PM   
Michelangelo

 

Posts: 29329
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From: Boston
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You're insane RMS! (just playin'!)

If Was qualifies for 50/50 doesn't that automatically qualify them for 15/15; 30/30; etc.. Isn't it redundant to be qualifying them for the categories less than 50/50?

That isn't the way you figured those percentages is it?!

Am I missing something here?

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 10
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/11/2005 1:00:02 AM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
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From: near Wash State University
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I could list them in reverse order... anything that qualifies for the 50/50 will automatically qualify for the 30/30 and 15/15... so the only notable change was that KC made the list at the lower criteria... the POV "Plain Old Vanilla" is more strict than Shoeless's current (awesome) system... and I don't have to consider trades/injuries/etc.

POV ends up with less predictions than Shoeless's current model since it limits the AWAY FAVORITES to 7 points (and some other things.)

Best NOT to look at last years data... the higher criteria last year did worse than 30/30... so I didn't make wagers with it this year... but report it here for historical value only.

Best of luck.
Yes... I'm evil.

_____________________________


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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/11/2005 2:10:39 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
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From: near Wash State University
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_____________________________


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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/11/2005 2:38:41 PM   
Side Job

 

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Gonna need some RUSHING outta the Redskins as frickin- Brunell has 2 INTS in the 1st Quater alone, and not to mention BOTH WERE IN THE REDZONE..I hate this guy as i think he is on the take.

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RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/11/2005 2:41:10 PM   
Side Job

 

Posts: 4331
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From: Chgo
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Are u kiddin me?????

Make that 3 INTS IN THE REDZONE all in the 1st Q

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Post #: 14
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/11/2005 6:04:53 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
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From: las vegas via boston
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skins just came through if you gave 3 1/2 like me. the giants blew it but had them teased with the skins for a winner.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 15
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/12/2005 1:34:24 PM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
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From: So. Cal.
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Took ATL -.5 teaser with GB +3 1/2 and OVER 26.5 (SNF) waiting for tonite's game. Also took ATL -10 (bought .5, -115) for 1u, ATL needs this game badly in chasing last playoff spot in NFC. Saints' subpar run d will get tested tonight, I like the chance of #1 run O (5.1 yrds/rush or 177.1 yrds/game) pounding #27 run D. Key for ATL to cover 10+ pts: play tight defensive lines in stop the NO run game, if they do it tonite, it should be a large margin game. We shall see what happens, and I'm expecting Falcons playing hard tonite in playoff race. GL!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 16
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/12/2005 2:05:53 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
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From: las vegas via boston
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the only way i think the falcons can score enough points to cover is by turnovers which is the saints big weakness. almost all the double digit favorites except seattle failed to cover yesterday. i don't like this game much for betting purposes as the game looks pretty tight except for the turnover factor. when a team primarily rushes the ball they eat up the clock which gives less time for quick points needed to cover a double digit spread unless they can generate points from turnovers.

by the way how did a 2 win team ever get to be a 6 point favorite over a 4 win team. that was a nice cover by the lions over the packers.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 17
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/12/2005 4:29:20 PM   
TA

 

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From: So. Cal.
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Hopefully, ATL can cash in 7 or more pts on NO's bad turnover margin (-17).

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Post #: 18
RE: PLUS30 THE $$ TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN' majors 23-9-1 - 12/14/2005 12:39:01 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
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From: near Wash State University
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Based in my speads, both games pushed. Still, not a loss.. and the stats remain the same:

YARDS >>> WIN >>>LOSS>>PCT
15/15 ... 35 ... 20 ... 64%
30/30 ... 21 ... 14 ... 60%
45/45 ... 18 ... 06 ... 75%
50/50 ... 15 ... 04 ... 79%

_____________________________


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