Sports Forum   |   Scoreboard   |   Contact Us   |   WinPicks Software   |   Talkstock   |   Advertise   |   Follow Us on Twitter   |   Register  |   Login 
Register to post in the sports forumDownload the ScoresLine App for Android 

 
 
Forums   Register   Profile   Inbox   Address Book   Subscribe   My Forums   Search   FAQ   Login   Log Out

Number Freak Question - Spread data   Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [Pro Sports] >> NFL and CFL >> Number Freak Question - Spread data Page: [1]
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
Number Freak Question - Spread data - 11/27/2005 3:08:39 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
Freak,

How often does the spread come into play?

You know the old saying, "The spread only comes into play 20% of the time, usually the winner of the game covers their side." So, if the Favorite wins, they usually cover. When the Underdog wins, they cover by default.

So my question is: "What are the percentages by Spread?"

Spread PK-2.5 points
Spreak 3.0-6.5 points
Spread 7.0-9.5 points
Spread 10.0-12.5 points
Spread 12.5-Above


My initial thought is that the closer to (0) the spread is the more likely the winner just decides the Cover or not... with larger spreads then the spread is much more in question.

Can you run this through a database?

_____________________________

Post #: 1
RE: Number Freak Question - Spread data - 11/27/2005 3:43:31 PM   
Number Freak


Posts: 3294
Joined: 8/28/2002
From: New England (Boston)
Status: offline
Spread PK-2.5 points = 3.7%
Spreak 3.0-6.5 points = 16.6%
Spread 7.0-9.5 points = 29.1%
Spread 10.0-13.5 points = 32.5%
Spread 13.5-Above = 46.4%

_____________________________

http://rack.2.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDE1LzAxLzE5L2QyL2RlZmxhdGVnYXRlLjdmYzM1LmpwZwpwCXRodW1iCTEyMDB4OTYwMD4/697ad4e4/3cc/deflategate.jpg

(in reply to rms)
Post #: 2
RE: Number Freak Question - Spread data - 11/28/2005 1:55:24 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
Freak,

Doesn't that sort of beg the question... if the spread is only called into question roughy 4% for spreads under 3 points and 17% for spreads under 7 points... then why would we ever handicap games above 7 points? The error rate increased dramatically and nobody is actually forcing us to make predictions. Shouldn't we stick to the more confident lower spreads (and emphasize picking winners)?

_____________________________


(in reply to rms)
Post #: 3
Page:   [1]
All Forums >> [Pro Sports] >> NFL and CFL >> Number Freak Question - Spread data Page: [1]
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 Unicode

0.023