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plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/22/2005 3:35:08 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
well majors almost had a great weekend until the redskins gave it up to the raiders with time running out. that left the major plays 1-1 for last week as the steelers were reduced to a minor play. these plays are still awesome as they have posted a 17-9-1 record this season. the minors did not fare as well going 3-4 ats but my personal favorite, the saints, did cover. i expect more dogs to cover as the season winds down to balance out the big favorite run so far. i heard it has been ten years since the favorites covered at winning pace like this year which is unusual. the books must be taking a beating. meanwhile plus30 is more than holding its own whether it picks favorites or dogs although there haven't been that many dog picks this year...strange. all i can say is keep an eye on those big spreads from here on out.

major plays:

the broncos(+49)(-16) over the cowboys
the chiefs(+56)(-30) over the pats
the jags(+47)(-1) over the cards
the saints(+42)(-3) over the jets

minor plays:

the falcons(+83)(+10) over the lions
the dolphins(+33)(+6) over the raiders
the seahawks(+42)(+13) over the giants

my personal favorite is the jags over the cards. the cards are a horrible team and the jags have been very competitive this year. the 3 1/2 points seems like a bargain with a playoff bound team vs a team that is going nowhere. i am kind of leaning toward the broncos over the cowboys. the broncos are looking awesome down the stretch while the cowboys still have weaknesses even though they are playing well. qb bledsoe can get rattled by a tough denver defense which spells doom for the cowboys. this makes the -2 points seem like another bargain.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood
Post #: 1
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/22/2005 3:50:02 PM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
Joined: 1/14/2003
From: So. Cal.
Status: offline
Shoe,
Like DEN -2, I think Denver's running duo, Anderson and Bell, should play well against just about average rushing defense of Dallas. Plummer also plays better ball than Bledsoe (13 TDs 3 INTs vs 14 TDs 7 picks).

Like your Chiefs as well. GL!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 2
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/26/2005 10:51:09 AM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
Joined: 1/14/2003
From: So. Cal.
Status: offline
Shoe,

Seems "sharps" are on NE, took KC already.

I have to scrap the NO over NYJ pick. Few points follwed the scrap: line movement, pts allowed/game, rushing d (yrds/rush and yrds/game) comparison.

Still like JAX -3, only public on it worries me. GL!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 3
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/26/2005 4:00:37 PM   
TA

 

Posts: 399
Joined: 1/14/2003
From: So. Cal.
Status: offline
With you on JAX -3.5 and MIA +7 already. GL!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 4
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/27/2005 8:02:38 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
plus30 get a big turkey for thanksgiving....3-0 on majors with the saints left.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 5
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/28/2005 6:31:39 AM   
Ignatz

 

Posts: 67
Joined: 12/20/2002
From:
Status: offline
cha ching.

the system keeps on winning!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 6
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/28/2005 11:42:25 AM   
Michelangelo

 

Posts: 29329
Joined: 11/20/1999
From: Boston
Status: offline
Diamonds on the soles of those shoes!

Excellent work this year shoe.

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 7
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/28/2005 2:28:55 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
I hope this doesn't come off wrong, but I'm just shocked as @#&&@* at the results of the "POV" (Plain-Old-Vanilla) Plus30 model.

Across 12 weeks (start counting at week #4) this is what I get:


CRITERIA. W ..... L ... PCT
15/15 ... 31 ... 19 ... 62%
30/30 ... 19 ... 14 ... 58%
45/45 ... 16 ... 06 ... 73%
50/50 ... 13 ... 04 ... 76%


Is this freaky or what?


_____________________________


(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 8
RE: plus30 majors 17-9-1 thanksgiving picks - 11/28/2005 2:37:02 PM   
cruisin

 

Posts: 5258
Joined: 1/2/1999
From:
Status: offline
What a week!

_____________________________

Good luck!

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 9
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