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PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/8/2005 10:46:24 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
plus 30 has been on fire lately with majors going 11-4-1 ats in the last 4 weeks and minors standing at 11-5 the last 5 weeks giving an overall 23-11-1 ats. last week i made one goof. the seahawks should have been a major play with an OR of +81 and a DR of -16. i counted the chiefs as a push because i was getting them at -4 in vegas although some might have been giving -4 1/2. with the sehawks as a major play the majors went 2-1-1 last week unless you bet the steelers with their starting qb out and the minors went 3-0. in a topsy turvy year plus30 still shines. this week's plays are:

majors:

the dolphins(+38)(-10) over the pats
the giants(+30)(-29) over the vikings
the broncos(+82)(-27) over the raiders
the seahawks(+56)(-21) over the rams
the steelers(+32)(-44) over the browns
the cowboys(+64)(-29) over the eagles

minors:

the bears(+37)(-20) over the 49ers double digit spread
the falcons(+113)(+10) over the packers

it might pay to tease the giants, the seahawks, and the steelers to bring their spreads down to more reasonable levels. my personal favorite is the broncos over the raiders. the broncos seem to be on a real mission now clicking on all cylinders and will be up for this big division game vs a hated rival.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood
Post #: 1
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/8/2005 11:02:15 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
in a way, plus30 has marked the recent demise of the pats as spread darlings going against them the last 2 weeks. it is not, as most think, because of their depleted secondary but their terrible rushing stats.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 2
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/10/2005 12:21:05 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
i've noticed this year, taking rushing efficiency ratings from 2minute.com, that teams that have a high plus rushing yardage both offensively and defensively have faired much better vs the spread than teams that live and die passing the ball with a weak rushing game. the bucs seem to be the only team that goes against this trend.

bears(+13) 5-2-1
broncos(+18) 5-2-1
colts(+11) 6-2
chiefs(+20) 4-3-1
giants(+20) 6-2
seahawks(+44) 5-3
redskins(+16) 5-3
chargers(+9) 5-3-1
panthers(+13) 5-3
bucs(+13) 3-5

cards(-33) 2-6
bills(-23) 4-4
texans(-18) 3-5
49ers(-28) 3-5
eagles(-13) 2-6
vikings(-13) 3-5
lions(-19) 4-4
rams(-2) 3-5
titans(-2) 3-6
jags(-11) 5-3
cowboys(-12) 4-4
bengals(-10) 5-4
ravens(-5) 3-5
pats(+5) 3-5
saints(+1) 3-5-1
browns(+8) 4-4
dolphins(+6) 3-5
jets(-20) 3-5
raiders(+1) 4-3-1
steelers(+3) 5-3
falcons(-5) 5-3


_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 3
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/13/2005 12:42:15 AM   
Winning Wand

 

Posts: 604
Joined: 9/9/2002
From: The Woodlands
Status: offline
That is good stuff!!!!

_____________________________

Be at Peace,
<BR>
<BR>WW

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 4
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/13/2005 9:37:40 AM   
pbo1

 

Posts: 81
Joined: 8/27/2002
From: Biloxi
Status: offline
I don't post much, I wait for your information every week and follow follow it.

I want you to know how much I appreciate you taking the time to post.

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 5
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/13/2005 3:12:43 PM   
shoeless


Posts: 8991
Joined: 10/6/1998
From: las vegas via boston
Status: offline
looks like a dog day....not good for plus30.

_____________________________

"the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing" james coburn in hardtimes

"you can fail on your own terms" clint eastwood

(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 6
RE: PLUS30 week10 picks majors 12-6-1 minors 11-5 - 11/14/2005 11:40:51 PM   
rms

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 10/7/1998
From: near Wash State University
Status: offline
I'm still using the Plus30 "POV" (Plain-Old-Vanilla) with the following results:

SCREEN ... W ... L ... % ... UNITS ... ROI
15/15 ... 36 ... 25 ... 59% ... 8.5 ... 13%
30/30 ... 23 ... 18 ... 56% ... 3.2 ... 7%
45/45 ... 19 ... 11 ... 63% ... 6.9 ... 22%
50/50 ... 18 ... 08 ... 69% ... 9.2 ... 34%

now that's evil...

_____________________________


(in reply to shoeless)
Post #: 7
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