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NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/8/2005 10:38:55 PM   
Number Freak


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Made a few adjustments to the parameters. Since this is a work in progress, I'll need to continuously tweek the value limits for the rest of the year to find the best strength for each category. Not changing anything with the rankings, only adjusting how to decipher the stronger plays. For example, all road favorites so far have gone 11-6-1, but those with a score advantage of 60+ have gone 6-1 ats. That hasn't changed. All 60+ plays overall are now 11-2 ATS (13-0 SU) with an AMOV of 17.5.

Below is every game result with this system, broken down by category. All matchup advantages (the entire schedule) have gone 35-28-3 (56%) ATS and the power plays are 25-16-0 (61%) ATS. Within that 25-16-0 is a 7-13-0 mark for all underdogs which have obviously struggled, but what I hadn't realized until this week was power favorites of any kind have gone 18-3-0 (86%) ATS and 21-0 SU. All five weeks were posted for you to calculate the matchup advantages yourself (just take the difference of the team scores) but here they are. Games with key injuries (QB's) and pick 'em's (no favorite) are not used.


DOGS (1+) 7-13-0 ATS

89 - Seattle (+3) over St Louis (WIN) (AWAY) (w5)
56 - San Diego (+4.5) over Philadelphia (WIN) (AWAY) (w7)
45 - Cleveland (+2) over Houston (LOSS) (AWAY) (w8)
43 - Miami (+3) over Buffalo (LOSS) (AWAY) (w5)
43 - Miami (+2) over New Orleans (WIN) (AWAY) (w8)
42 - Chicago (+3) over Cleveland (LOSS) (AWAY) (w5)
40 - Chicago (+3) over Detroit (WIN) (AWAY) (w8)
39 - Cleveland (+6) over Baltimore (LOSS) (AWAY) (w6)
31 - Miami (+2) over Atlanta (LOSS) (HOME) (w9)
31 - Atlanta (+1.5) over New England (NO PLAY, INJ) (w5)
29 - Washington (+5.5) over Kansas City (LOSS) (AWAY) (w6)
27 - Washington (+2.5) over NY Giants (LOSS) (AWAY) (w8)
23 - Pittsburgh (+1.5) over Cincinnati (WIN) (AWAY) (w7)
20 - Miami (+1) over Kansas City (LOSS) (HOME) (w7)
15 - NY Jets (+3.5) over Buffalo (LOSS) (AWAY) (w6)
12 - Tennessee (+5.5) over Arizona (LOSS) (AWAY) (w7)
11 - Miami (+3) over Tampa Bay (LOSS) (AWAY) (w6)
5 - Detroit (+2.5) over Minnesota (LOSS) (AWAY) (w9)
2 - Denver (+2) over NY Giants (WIN) (AWAY) (w7)
2 - Tennessee (+3) over Houston (WIN) (AWAY) (w5)
1 - Baltimore (+1) over Detroit (LOSS) (AWAY) (w5)

There may be an explanation for this. Underdogs in this year's NFL, normally 51%, are only 52-71-4 (42%). Expect a bit of a bounce. Other than that, underdogs with power advantages should not be losing like this.


HOME FAVS <7 (17+) 10-0 SU, 9-1-0 ATS

60 - Chicago (-3) over Minnesota (WIN) (w6)
44 - San Diego (-6) over Kansas City (WIN) (w8)
40 - Chicago (-2) over Baltimore (WIN) (w7)
37 - Seattle (-4.5) over Dallas (LOSS) (w7)
27 - Washington (-3) over Philadelphia (WIN) (w9)
21 - St Louis (-3) over New Orleans (WIN) (w7)
21 - Denver (-3) over New England (WIN) (w6)
19 - Kansas City (-3) over Oakland (WIN) (w9)
18 - Denver (-3.5) over Philadelphia (WIN) (w8)
17 - Cleveland (-2.5) over Tennessee (WIN) (w9)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
15 - San Diego (-3) over Pittsburgh (LOSS) (w5)
14 - Green Bay (-3) over New Orleans (WIN) (w5)
11 - Dallas (-3) over NY Giants (PUSH) (w6)
5 - Cleveland (-3) over Detroit (LOSS) (w7)
4 - Oakland (-3) over Buffalo (WIN) (w7)
4 - Jacksonville (-3) over Cincinnati (PUSH) (w5)
1 - Pittsburgh (-3) over Jacksonville (LOSS) (w6)

Expanded this category from advantages of 20+ to 17+ for now to add the KC, DEN and CLE wins. Very nice results thus far but all NFL favs have been hot this year.


HOME FAVS 7+ (60+) 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS

102 - Washington (-13.5) over San Francisco (WIN) (w7)
101 - Jacksonville (-13) over Houston (LOSS) (w9)
76 - Seattle (-9.5) over Houston (WIN) (w6)
70 - Dallas (-8.5) over Arizona (WIN) (w8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
58 - Pittsburgh (-12.5) over Baltimore (LOSS) (w8)
50 - Indianapolis (-13.5) over St Louis (WIN) (w6)
45 - New England (-10) over Buffalo (LOSS) (w8)
37 - Carolina (-7.5) over Minnesota (WIN) (w8)
30 - Cincinnati (-9) over Green Bay (LOSS) (w8)
14 - Atlanta (-8.5) over NY Jets (WIN) (w7)
11 - Denver (-7) over Washington (LOSS) (w5)

This was previously 50+ but changed it to 60+; same as all road favs.


ROAD FAVS (60+) 7-0 SU, 6-1-0 ATS

99 - Seattle (-4.5) over Arizona (WIN) (w9)
94 - NY Giants (-11) over San Francisco (WIN) (w9)
84 - San Diego (-6) over NY Jets (LOSS) (w9)
81 - Indianapolis (-15.5) over Houston (WIN) (w7)
81 - Tampa Bay (-11.5) over San Francisco (NO PLAY, INJ) (w8)
69 - Indianapolis (-16.5) over San Francisco (WIN) (w5)
63 - Cincinnati (-3) over Tennessee (WIN) (w6)
62 - San Diego (-1.5) over Oakland (WIN) (w6)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
56 - Atlanta (-6) over New Orleans (LOSS) (w6)
54 - Chicago (-3) over New Orleans (PUSH) (w9)
52 - Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas (LOSS) (w5)
50 - Jacksonville (-5.5) over St Louis (LOSS) (w8)
50 - Pittsburgh (-3) over Green Bay (WIN) (w9)
41 - Tampa Bay (-3) over NY Jets (LOSS) (w5)
39 - Carolina (-2.5) over Arizona (WIN) (w5)
32 - Oakland (-1) over Tennessee (WIN) (w8)
27 - Cincinnati (-3) over Baltimore (WIN) (w9)
26 - Indianapolis (-4) over New England (WIN) (w9)
19 - Carolina (-2.5) over Detroit (LOSS) (w6)


A backdoor cover by the Jets prevented this from being perfect. That same game was the only qualifying play that actually would not have qualified with the last 5 games checkpoint I posted last week, which was only a 51 advantage so I'll have to watch that. I may end up not using those questionable games if the rest all look weak.


Regarding those checkpoint rankings of the last 5 games I posted last week, plays favoring a different team L5 from the YTD went 1-2 ATS for the YTD favorite (Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Kansas City). Nothing much to take from that, however the three teams with a stronger L5 advantage over their opponent from YTD (Cleveland 17/20, Washington 27/37 and Indianapolis 26/28) went 3-0 ATS. Something to watch.

I'll have the new rankings and team scores for Week 10 up on Thursday night.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/10/2005 9:01:13 PM   
Number Freak


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WEEK 10

# . Team …..( W - L )….. R-O -- R-D -- P-O -- P-D -- S-O -- S-D ----- Score
1 . San Diego …..( 5 - 4 )….. 7 -- 4 -- 5 -- 9 -- 1 -- 15 ----- 151
2 . Pittsburgh …..( 6 - 2 )….. 19 -- 1 -- 6 -- 7 -- 11 -- 5 ----- 143
3 . Seattle …..( 6 - 2 )….. 3 -- 15 -- 11 -- 8 -- 5 -- 13 ----- 137
4 . Denver …..( 6 - 2 )….. 1 -- 18 -- 19 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 ----- 136
5 . New York (NYG) …..( 6 - 2 )….. 4 -- 13 -- 18 -- 11 -- 2 -- 8 ----- 136
6 . Dallas …..( 5 - 3 )….. 26 -- 14 -- 2 -- 4 -- 16 -- 1 ----- 129
7 . Indianapolis …..( 8 - 0 )….. 18 -- 25 -- 7 -- 13 -- 4 -- 2 ----- 123
8 . Jacksonville …..( 5 - 3 )….. 20 -- 16 -- 14 -- 1 -- 18 -- 3 ----- 120
9 . Chicago …..( 5 - 3 )….. 10 -- 6 -- 29 -- 3 -- 23 -- 4 ----- 117
10 . Washington …..( 5 - 3 )….. 12 -- 17 -- 17 -- 6 -- 19 -- 6 ----- 115
11 . Carolina …..( 6 - 2 )….. 32 -- 3 -- 1 -- 17 -- 3 -- 24 ----- 112
12 . Cincinnati …..( 7 - 2 )….. 17 -- 31 -- 4 -- 10 -- 9 -- 10 ----- 111
13 . Miami …..( 3 - 5 )….. 5 -- 5 -- 25 -- 12 -- 22 -- 14 ----- 109
14 . Kansas City …..( 5 - 3 )….. 8 -- 19 -- 10 -- 24 -- 10 -- 21 ----- 100
15 . Tampa Bay …..( 5 - 3 )….. 15 -- 2 -- 24 -- 21 -- 29 -- 9 ----- 92
16 . Baltimore …..( 2 - 6 )….. 24 -- 9 -- 26 -- 2 -- 30 -- 11 ----- 90
17 . Green Bay …..( 1 - 7 )….. 31 -- 11 -- 9 -- 22 -- 12 -- 18 ----- 89
18 . New England …..( 4 - 4 )….. 27 -- 10 -- 3 -- 30 -- 8 -- 26 ----- 88
19 . Philadelphia …..( 4 - 4 )….. 28 -- 8 -- 12 -- 25 -- 15 -- 17 ----- 87
20 . Oakland …..( 3 - 5 )….. 25 -- 20 -- 16 -- 14 -- 14 -- 19 ----- 84
21 . Atlanta …..( 6 - 2 )….. 2 -- 28 -- 27 -- 23 -- 13 -- 16 ----- 83
22 . St. Louis …..( 4 - 4 )….. 6 -- 29 -- 8 -- 28 -- 7 -- 31 ----- 83
23 . Cleveland …..( 3 - 5 )….. 13 -- 21 -- 13 -- 27 -- 27 -- 12 ----- 79
24 . New York (NYJ) …..( 2 - 6 )….. 29 -- 7 -- 22 -- 15 -- 25 -- 22 ----- 72
25 . New Orleans …..( 2 - 7 )….. 9 -- 23 -- 20 -- 18 -- 28 -- 27 ----- 67
26 . Minnesota …..( 3 - 5 )….. 11 -- 24 -- 15 -- 26 -- 21 -- 29 ----- 66
27 . Detroit …..( 3 - 5 )….. 23 -- 26 -- 28 -- 16 -- 20 -- 20 ----- 59
28 . Arizona …..( 2 - 6 )….. 30 -- 22 -- 21 -- 19 -- 24 -- 25 ----- 51
29 . Tennessee …..( 2 - 7 )….. 21 -- 27 -- 23 -- 29 -- 17 -- 28 ----- 47
30 . Buffalo …..( 3 - 5 )….. 14 -- 32 -- 32 -- 20 -- 32 -- 23 ----- 39
31 . San Francisco …..( 2 - 6 )….. 22 -- 12 -- 31 -- 32 -- 31 -- 32 ----- 32
32 . Houston …..( 1 - 7 )….. 16 -- 30 -- 30 -- 31 -- 26 -- 30 ----- 29


LAST 5 GAMES

# . Team …..( W - L )….. R-O -- R-D -- P-O -- P-D -- S-O -- S-D ----- Score
1 . New York (NYG) …..( 4 - 1 )….. 4 -- 1 -- 16 -- 6 -- 5 -- 2 ----- 158
2 . Seattle …..( 4 - 1 )….. 3 -- 18 -- 12 -- 4 -- 8 -- 5 ----- 142
3 . Dallas …..( 3 - 2 )….. 26 -- 4 -- 7 -- 1 -- 16 -- 1 ----- 137
4 . Denver …..( 4 - 1 )….. 1 -- 21 -- 15 -- 12 -- 4 -- 3 ----- 136
5 . Pittsburgh …..( 4 - 1 )….. 21 -- 2 -- 20 -- 2 -- 11 -- 7 ----- 129
6 . Indianapolis …..( 5 - 0 )….. 17 -- 24 -- 9 -- 10 -- 3 -- 8 ----- 121
7 . San Diego …..( 3 - 2 )….. 24 -- 7 -- 5 -- 14 -- 12 -- 10 ----- 120
8 . Chicago …..( 4 - 1 )….. 6 -- 3 -- 31 -- 7 -- 24 -- 6 ----- 115
9 . Oakland …..( 3 - 2 )….. 16 -- 28 -- 10 -- 3 -- 7 -- 14 ----- 114
10 . Carolina …..( 5 - 0 )….. 31 -- 5 -- 1 -- 23 -- 1 -- 18 ----- 113
11 . Green Bay …..( 1 - 4 )….. 30 -- 12 -- 6 -- 13 -- 10 -- 13 ----- 108
12 . Baltimore …..( 1 - 4 )….. 11 -- 13 -- 19 -- 8 -- 23 -- 12 ----- 106
13 . Jacksonville …..( 3 - 2 )….. 20 -- 14 -- 14 -- 11 -- 25 -- 4 ----- 104
14 . Cincinnati …..( 3 - 2 )….. 14 -- 32 -- 4 -- 15 -- 13 -- 11 ----- 103
15 . Kansas City …..( 3 - 2 )….. 15 -- 19 -- 8 -- 17 -- 6 -- 26 ----- 101
16 . Washington …..( 2 - 3 )….. 12 -- 22 -- 17 -- 5 -- 20 -- 16 ----- 100
17 . St. Louis …..( 2 - 3 )….. 5 -- 27 -- 2 -- 25 -- 2 -- 31 ----- 100
18 . New England …..( 2 - 3 )….. 19 -- 9 -- 3 -- 32 -- 9 -- 25 ----- 95
19 . Cleveland …..( 2 - 3 )….. 10 -- 17 -- 18 -- 24 -- 29 -- 9 ----- 85
20 . Miami …..( 1 - 4 )….. 8 -- 11 -- 25 -- 19 -- 30 -- 15 ----- 84
21 . Minnesota …..( 2 - 3 )….. 7 -- 20 -- 22 -- 20 -- 22 -- 22 ----- 79
22 . Arizona …..( 2 - 3 )….. 29 -- 25 -- 13 -- 16 -- 17 -- 19 ----- 73
23 . New Orleans …..( 0 - 5 )….. 9 -- 15 -- 27 -- 9 -- 28 -- 32 ----- 72
24 . Atlanta …..( 4 - 1 )….. 2 -- 26 -- 29 -- 29 -- 14 -- 23 ----- 69
25 . Tampa Bay …..( 2 - 3 )….. 23 -- 8 -- 24 -- 26 -- 27 -- 17 ----- 67
26 . Detroit …..( 2 - 3 )….. 25 -- 23 -- 23 -- 22 -- 15 -- 20 ----- 64
27 . New York (NYJ) …..( 1 - 4 )….. 28 -- 10 -- 28 -- 18 -- 26 -- 21 ----- 61
28 . Philadelphia …..( 2 - 3 )….. 32 -- 16 -- 11 -- 27 -- 19 -- 28 ----- 59
29 . San Francisco …..( 1 - 4 )….. 13 -- 6 -- 32 -- 31 -- 32 -- 27 ----- 51
30 . Tennessee …..( 1 - 4 )….. 27 -- 30 -- 21 -- 21 -- 18 -- 29 ----- 46
31 . Houston …..( 1 - 4 )….. 22 -- 29 -- 26 -- 30 -- 21 -- 30 ----- 34
32 . Buffalo …..( 2 - 3 )….. 18 -- 31 -- 30 -- 28 -- 31 -- 24 ----- 30


_____________________________

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(in reply to Number Freak)
Post #: 2
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/11/2005 10:39:22 PM   
Number Freak


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Week 10 schedule and lines followed by score advantage (YTD/L5)


Kan +2.5 at Buf KC = 61/71
Love KC getting points as a 60+ power play, a higher L5 and a Gold Rush play

Was -1.0 at TB WAS = 23/33
Liked WAS in this one but Tampa is a Gold Rush play. Check mate.

NE -2.5 at Mia MIA = 21/-11
MIA does not qualify as a dog play due to the -11 margin L5; also a Gold Rush though

SF +13.0 at Chi CHI = 85/64
CHI qualifies as a power play although San Fran is tempting

Min +9.0 at NYG NYG = 70/79
NYG are a power play

Ari +3.5 at Det DET = 8/-9
No thanks.

Balt +6.5 at Jck JAC = 30/-2
JAC would be a power play if not for their -2 L5; BAL may surprise here?

Hou +17.5 at Ind IND = 94/87
IND easily a power play but I think this is a bad sandwich spot for them

NYJ +9.0 at Car CAR = 40/52
CAR is strong here but too many points to lay

Den -3.0 at Oak DEN = 52/22
DEN is 4th and final Gold Rush play and very strong but road favs vs div rival? Pass.

StL +6.5 at Sea SEA = 54/42
Decent play on SEA unless line rises to 7+, then pass

GB +9.0 at Atl GB = 6/39
Hello!!! 1-7 team with better YTD ranking and stronger L5!

Cle +7.5 at Pit PIT = 64/44
Would have qualified but Roethlisberger is out

Dal +3.0 at Phi DAL = 42/78
Huge advantage for a dog and Philly is falling apart L5; can Eagles rally around controversy?


Home favs <7 (17+) = 9-1-0 ats* (10-0 SU)....SEA
Home favs 7+ (60+) = 3-1-0 ats* (4-0 SU)....CHI, NYG, IND
All Away favs (60+) = 6-1-0 ats* (7-0 SU)....
All Underdogs (1+) = 7-13-0 ats*....KC, GB, DAL
Gold Rush plays = 6-2-0 ats....KC, MIA, TB, DEN

TOTAL = 31-18-0 ATS (63%)


L5 comparisons to watch...

Play qualifies YTD but not quite L5 = 0-1-0 ATS (*incl. in record above)
Play qualifies YTD but negative L5 = 1-0-0 ATS JAC, MIA
Play qualifies both YTD and L5 but lesser L5 = 2-3-0 ATS (*incl. above) IND, CHI, SEA
Play qualifies both YTD and L5 and higher L5 = 2-0-0 ATS (*incl. above) KC, NYG, GB, DAL
Doesn't qualify but positive YTD & higher L5 = 1-0-0 ATS WAS, CAR
Doesn't qualify w/positive YTD but lower L5 = 1-0-1 ATS DEN
Doesn't qualify w/positive YTD but negative L5 = 1-1-0 ATS DET

Common sense would say that plays qualifying both YTD and L5 with a higher L5 would be the strongest plays.

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(in reply to Number Freak)
Post #: 3
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/12/2005 2:06:09 AM   
btrufus

 

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Number Freak, thats some awesome numbers. very nice work.
Its a little scary to jump in on those power favs now, with such a good record they have. Might have to wait until next year and start from the get go.
good luck
Bt

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RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/13/2005 7:49:49 AM   
Winning Wand

 

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Great stuff. I wish we could factor injuries and emotion's of players.

_____________________________

Be at Peace,
<BR>
<BR>WW

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RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/13/2005 10:02:46 AM   
Big D Mac

 

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Number freak, great stuff here. My question is what is a gold rush play??? Are they stronger than your 60+ plays. Thanks for the help.

Big D

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RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/13/2005 10:44:48 AM   
Number Freak


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Thanks guys.

Big D, no. The Gold Rush plays are teams with strong rushing advantages on both sides of the ball. These plays aren't derived from the rankings like the others and the name is just a nickname for them. The "Gold" part of the name has nothing to do with superiority over the other plays.

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Post #: 7
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/13/2005 10:51:00 AM   
Number Freak


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Site is slow today, so just going to quickly say what I like:

KC +3
SF +13
GB +9
DAL +3

Edit: Initially added Washington as an underdog thinking they were a dog but they closed at -1, so WAS was no play.

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RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/13/2005 4:39:44 PM   
rms

 

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Freak,

How do you come up with the ratings? Based on rushing yards and other factors?

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Post #: 9
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/14/2005 1:13:15 PM   
Number Freak


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RMS,

The basics of it are based on rushing, passing and scoring.

There's so many different things I can do with this and, as I mentioned before, I will have the offseason to find many profitable angles within these rankings. All I have to work with now are the ranking scores themselves and I found a nice healthy pocket or two of strength from all the plays in the initial post which I'll post in Week 11's thread.


Tonight:



The only reason to play Philly is based off history. With McNabb hurting and the TO distractions, Philly should not be favored against a hungrier Dallas team.

_____________________________

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Post #: 10
RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/15/2005 1:05:43 AM   
52/48

 

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Looks like the ATS fell off on those higher numbers this week. I would guess that will be the case until the fav cannot cover these higher lines. I remember thinking a few weeks ago that the lines seem to be relatively short. I suspect the strong favs determined by your numbers will cover early in the season until the lines adjust up to meet them and then like this week the favs are not going to make these higher numbers. Not sure what happened to Kc... Glad I checked your selections posted Saturday. I went with Kc, Sea, Chic, NE, and Indi on a 5 team 10 point super teaser (still not sure why I didn't go with the Giants except that I was worried Johnson may get Minn going). First time I remember winning on a team that only scored 3 points.

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RE: NFL Exposed - W10....(Top Favorites 21-0 SU) - 11/15/2005 7:41:37 AM   
Number Freak


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52/48, you're right. I knew those big favs would falter eventually. Hence, in Week 11, I'm going to eliminate all favs of 10+ even though I'm eliminating a winning section so far. It's only right in the long run.

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