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NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:10:43 PM   
Arroyo1

 

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What I have been doing in order to win this season is as follows

Look at wagerline.com (link on the side of talksports page)

Take a look at the player consensus page, and see which teams have the most player picks.

Yesterday it was MInnesota and The Eagles and Denver

Used this to my advantage and hit 3 for 3

Its good to get the input of others, and if that many people like a certian game who an I to disagree!

Take the Rams, they are the team who everyone thinks will win tonight!
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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:12:38 PM   
whitestar

 

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Its a very nice system you have there, I wish I know it before.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:15:02 PM   
HardKnocks1

 

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I have looked at this in the past and it will not hold-up. You will be lucky to hit 50% taking the top public plays.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:18:06 PM   
Arroyo1

 

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This Season The top 3 plays have won nearly every week

I have bet all 6 weeks and not lost once using this method!

you should try it!

NFL betting is easier than you think!

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:40:58 PM   
MacG727

 

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You are getting lucky this year. A lot of the popular favorites are coming in. It will all even out sooner or later if you use this system. Be careful.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:54:30 PM   
Sebass


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I myself got sucked into that trap when I first started out a few years ago. Each week is different and so is each year. I never wish bad on anyone so I hope it works for you. If you plan on going into other sports, especially College Basketball, those consensus will bite you in the arse quite a lot.

You must also remember that probably a lot of people on wagerline do it for fun, or when they make their picks they follow the consensus inflating the number.

And finally, you never want to put your money into just one system. You need to diversify. Let's say the next 3 weeks this system goes 0-3. So you try to go out on your own the fourth week and find it is tougher than you thought. You can get buried really quickly. It's much more fun to have the pick nobody thought of. That's how you make the money week in and week out.

If you had taken Pitt in the ML instead of with the points you probably could have made an extra 500-700 bucks on your six way. That's what you need to be looking for. IN a six way the difference between a 1.91 multiplier and ML +130 (or 2.3) is huge. Just a guesstimate on what the ML probly was with a +4 spread.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 12:56:27 PM   
Sebass


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Congrats on your six way BTW, it always feels special when you do something like that.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 1:07:11 PM   
yanqui_gaucho


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There is a basic failure in that logic that I have previously touched upon. This being the very nature of gambling itself, the hardened facts remain that the majority of gambler's lose, sports bettor's included. This being said using the "majority" or "consensus" numbers in making your picks is flawed at best. Also just because one team is carrying a consensus you don't know if they placed that wager with a SU win in mind or an ATS bet. Differentiating these is an important clue and that cannot be surmised by consensus play numbers alone. Keep using that formula singularly and you will indeed finish the season a big loser - guaranteed.

yanqui_

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 1:18:34 PM   
endzoneantics

 

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If you further investigate the Wagerline "consensus" playes, the numbers show they only win 50%, over aperiod of time. This won't work. If this is your best system, quit now and count your luck you are ahead.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 1:29:39 PM   
Horse Player

 

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I believe all systems and trends revert to the mean eventually. So if you are riding high on a wave now, watch out! You are sure to be underwater gasping for air soon IMO.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 1:40:39 PM   
JR91

 

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dont ever go with the public because you will lose in the long run.When I started to read this post i thought it was going to be about going opposite. I have kept track of the WG consensus the past 4 years in the nFL and when 61% or + of the WG public is on a side it loses close to 65% of the time. Granted the past few weeks the public has been correct but I highly doubt it will last.

take this info FWIW....bets of luck!

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 2:42:20 PM   
blockpixit

 

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arroyo,

Much like everyone here I also agree. You will not be a winner if you bet top 3 on wagerline. Think about it, either way you look at it you are taking other peoples opinion, and that opinion is the general public. I will bet against the public everytime, and I will even bet against what the pros pick. Take last weeks Monday night pregame show, Irvin, Jaws and the other guys all picked Green Bay, and GB got there asses kicked. I bet Tennessee. I do my fair shore of losing but I do just as much research as the next guy so why would I base my picks on there judgements. Do your own homework and bet based on that! Or, go ahead and bet with the public cause your too lazy, and you will end up giving all that money back that you SAY you won.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 3:29:24 PM   
BookieNemesis

 

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People, I'm beginning to think that this arroyo guy is one of them bookies. And he's making all this up trying to sway this board the wrong way. Anyone can post winners AFTER the games are over. But this "junior member" hasn't posted anything yet. Let's not believe everything we read up here.


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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 3:34:14 PM   
MacG727

 

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I agree with what everyone is saying 100%. That's great that you are winning right now and might win some more, but like I said before things have a way of evening out and in the world of sportsbetting, if you go with the majority, you will lose and lose BIG in the long run. We're all here to help. We all want to beat the man. But following consensus might be good now, but if you continue to do it, I guarantee that you will crash and burn and get drilled. Once again, be VERY careful in the upcoming weeks. But whatever you decide to do, good luck to you.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 3:41:59 PM   
btrufus

 

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Heres spmething i have never been able to figure out. Why do the majority of gamblers pick more losers then winners? If you think about it, theres only 2 teams playing, you have a 50-50 chance of picking the winner, yet most people always pick the wrong side. Why is that? Seriously think about this for a minute, cause i have and it baffles me. You can go 1-6 way more times then you can go 6-1, so why is that? You would think after say 500 plays a bettor would be 250-250, but its just not so, you will see more bettors with records like
200-300.
Baffling to me. I really believe alot comes down to just pure luck and nothing more. If your a born lucky person you continue to win and if your unlucky one, no matter who you follow or how you pick games, they just lose.
Like to hear others thoughts on this.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 6:37:48 PM   
Number Freak


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Hold on a second guys. First of all, there is a 50% chance to win every game. It's the purest of numbers. The problem is, if you simply guess at every game, you WILL hit around 50% OVER THE LONG HAUL and the juice will absolutely kill you. I'm talking over a lifetime of betting....

Problem is, either most bettors have a hard time staying over the 52.38% needed to overcome -110 juice or, more likely, lose because of poor money management. Either varying the size of their bets or betting too much of their bankroll per game. You'd be amazed how much either of these flaws adds up over hundreds of bets and you'd be surprised how difficult it is to top 52.38% over a lifetime.

Secondly, there actually IS a way to use consensuses to win. I did it a few years ago consistently. Consensuses are only as strong as the people that make it up and there IS strength in numbers, as long as they are "proven" numbers. I only tracked proven winners over hundreds of picks and hit regularly around 56-58% but the amount of time and work it took was enormous. On average, it took me 3 hours each day to do one sport going to about four or five different sites.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 8:29:13 PM   
btrufus

 

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Hey Number Freak,
any thoughts on my post, why people go 1-6 more times then they go 6-1.
it baffles me.

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 9:47:53 PM   
Number Freak


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It's not true

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RE: NFL Trend on Wagerline - 10/18/2004 9:52:37 PM   
dollars

 

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btrufus,

I've wandered that too! Maybe your right about ppl being unlucky. Or maybe the lines makers have it down pat on how to sway your opinion. This is something I've always loved to do but it's just not right!

Take the weeks card and make your picks, now put your hard earned cash on the opposite of what you've picked.

There!!! Now you too can go 6-1!



THOUGHTS????

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