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Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/17/2004 6:43:13 AM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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I'm guessing that Texas will be a small favorite in this game, like maybe 2-4 points. Here's what I'm thinking:

Whatever little confidence Texas had gained in their passing game prior to OU, is now gone. Vince Young (& Chance Mock in the 2nd half vs Missouri) have both looked pitiful throwing the ball. After the offense got shutout by OU, they came back yesterday with 58 total yards passing & 2 ints. To steal a line from Dan Marino, "these QB's couldn't hit the ocean if they were standing on the beach."


Texas is really hurting at WR too, where these inexperienced receivers continue to make mistakes & don't go after the ball well at all. And the success they were having of getting the ball to the TE's has disappeared these last two games. The best receiver yesterday was Vince Young, who caught a pass from a backup RB.

Bottom line..Texas has ZERO PASSING GAME right now.

Heading into Lubbock next Saturday, Texas is as one-dimensional as you can get. To make matters worse, Cedric Benson has been coughing up the ball with some regularity lately. In their last three games, he has put it on the turf seven times. Not a good trend when you will be relying so heavily on the running game.

I will give the Texas defense credit for playing much better this year. I think this is mainly due to the addition of co-DC's Robinson & Tomey. The best thing they've done is to turn Derrick Johnson loose & let him "make plays". However, there are still enough holes in the defense that I believe Texas Tech will be able to exploit them.

Synopsis of Texas Tech: Their defense is much improved, their passing game seems to be clicking, they HATE Texas, and they get them at home where the crowd will be in an absolute frenzy about beating Texas. This is a recipe for disaster for the Texas Longhorns. I think this one could get ugly.

I'd be interested to hear what others think about this game.
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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/18/2004 4:25:41 PM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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Texas Tech +2 1/2 (5 units)

IMO, getting ANY points in this game is a gift. I will hold out on adding to this to see if the gift keeps on giving.

(in reply to TheGoldenRhino)
Post #: 2
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/19/2004 6:47:54 PM   
LonghornMM


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IMO this is the best play on this weekend's card. Tech will absolutely roll Texas. Take the points and cash the ticket for a big payday.

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/19/2004 8:12:57 PM   
southern italian pony

 

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longhorn, any truth to the rumor in austin that mack is out no matter what and spurrier is waiting in the wings? spurrier vs stoops, now that would be one hell of a scenario.

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/19/2004 10:22:15 PM   
brj8826

 

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Mack will have some problems with the big $$$ donors this season if he refuses to get rid of his OC Greg Davis.

If Mack loses to A&M this year AT HOME, that becomes a whole other issue.

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 8:20:05 AM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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SI Pony, the Spurrier rumors are nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of Texas fans. It makes me sick (and I could really rant on this) but the AD & big money alumni seem to be perfectly happy with the job Brown is doing. They will point to the recruiting classes, the consecutive 10 win/top 10 seasons, the fact that season ticket sales are at an all time high, the luxury suites..blah, blah, blah, and they're more than happy to get an annual ass kicking in Dallas followed by a trip to the HoliCotton bowl.

It would take a catastrophic meltdown for them to get rid of Mack Brown. As a Texas fan, our only hope is that the continued ineptitude of our offense will get us a new coordinator. Greg Davis is probably the worst OC in all of college football.


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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 8:23:18 AM   
endzoneantics

 

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Rumors in Chapel Hill say Mack may retire as coach of UT to come be the AD at UNC. Just rumors...

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 8:31:51 AM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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LOL Where do I send my referral.."Give this man the job. PLEASE!!"

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 10:12:06 AM   
greek

 

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Longhorns -2.5
Benson rushes for 180+ and UT finally covers after a 4 week ats hiatus.
Big 12 Best Bet : Play on the CU Buffs +20 @ Texas A/M .
greek

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 10:54:11 AM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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To be fair (since I'm obviously really down on my Longhorns), I should mention that Texas is 24-1 SU in their regular season games AFTER they play OU since 2000. The one loss was in 2002 vs Tech in Lubbock, 38-42. I just don't think they'll have the offense to keep up with Tech this year. We'll see. Good luck on that Colorado pick Greek.

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/20/2004 11:46:01 AM   
LonghornMM


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As Rhino said, the heavy hitters around UT are pretty happy with Brown. He was assured that no matter the outcome of the OU game that his job is safe. The problem with Texas is absolutely Greg Davis (OC and QB coach). How many more times does this inept dufuss have to show his poor coaching skills in order to run him off. He should have been canned three years ago.

Unfortunately, the only way I see Davis gone after this year is if Texas gets soundly beaten by Tech, has a slip up to CU, OSU, or KU and/or possibly loses to atm. Other than Major Applewhite, no Texas QB has progressed under his direction. Instead, the QB's have regressed in their skills.

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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 4:35:10 AM   
rufusss


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I think Texas wins this game,they will be fine on defense and should benefit from some turnovers and have some short field opportunities on Saturday.They will be able to run the ball sucessfully against this weak run defense of Texas Tech which as of last week was 61st,and 9th against the pass.While Texas as of last week was 69th in run defense and 8th against the pass. Adrian Peterson had a field day running back he is a great back.I think Texas tech needs to be worried about turnovers since as of last week they were listed at 53rd in turnover margin while texas is listed as 14th in the ncaa.I will take my chances with Texas this week even though their passing game has not been successful this year,they with probally let Vince start this game just get the running game going and some quarterback draws and keep mistakes to a minimum...

Should be a good one!!!!
GoodLuck this week...

_____________________________

Time to make some Dough---Nuts

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Post #: 12
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 7:44:41 AM   
brj8826

 

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90% of the people I talk to/read are hot on Tech yet the line went from Texas -1 to Texas -3 at my book. Hmmmmm

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Post #: 13
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 9:05:06 AM   
greek

 

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brj8826,

If the line has moved this much during the week the game is probably a trap. Tend to think Rufuss statement of take-away's/Turnovers will be the difference.The Longhorns will run in a few scores from the defensive side of the ball.

Colorado will have an opportunity to win versus Texas A/M.

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Post #: 14
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 10:01:51 AM   
brj8826

 

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rufuss, I completely agree on Texas. I think they win with a solid game from Benson and a revised gameplan to take advantage of the best athlete (not QB) on the field in Young.

While any team can win on any day, I don't think Colorado is going to have much of a chance this weekend. The only thing in their favor is the weather and A&M's possible let down.

Fran teams don't usually suffer from letdowns though, especially at home. This team was humbled with a 4-8 season last year, including 4 losses at Kyle Field. They started the season by getting whipped at Utah and have had a special resolve since then. They played 18 true freshman or redshirts in that game and will only get better.

I like Colorado to keep it inside the 20 they are spotted because of the weather, but I wouldn't be suprised to see A&M blow them out.

I know the transitive property doesn't work for college football, but look at these numbers

Okl State 42 Colorado 17 AT BOULDER
A&M 36 Okla State 20 AT STILLWATER (was much worse than this, 36-6 to start the 4th)

Colorado 19 Iowa State 14 AT BOULDER
A&M 34 Iowa State 3 AT AMES (not that Ames is really a home field advtg)

Fran has made it one of his key goals this year to protect home field. He talked about it on a number of occasions in the pre season and has mentioned it this week in the pregame interviews. They will be ready for CU and I don't think CU has the horses to stop McNeal and Co.

If it stays dry in College Station I think A&M wins big.


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RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 10:07:51 AM   
DaKid

 

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First post here after lurking for a while, really enjoy the good info and thoughts over the past few months. No one has talked about the O?U line but I have been following a simulator that is 19-3 YTD on the year picking strictly unders in NCAAF and this game came up on the radar as a play. I'm showing an average total of 52', significantly below the current line of 61. I wouldn't pass the info on if I didn't feel confident enought to make a sizable investment myself.

_____________________________

RD

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Post #: 16
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 10:15:00 AM   
rufusss


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br and Greek i think we are getting good value because of Texas performance last week......
Anything can happen but i like this side this week.

Wish everyone good luck this week!!!



_____________________________

Time to make some Dough---Nuts

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Post #: 17
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 11:24:50 AM   
kempersbank

 

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Turnover this, turnover that. Technical has put up 70 points in both their home games. Technical hates Texas. Technical plays great at home at night. Technical plays Texas, a team they hate, at night at home.

The Texas offense will get stopped a few times and stop itself a few times. They won't run over Technical's like they might have in the past because their defense is getting better. Vince Young is aweful throwing the ball. Benson fumbled 4 times in the last 2 weeks. ITT Tech has had 2 weeks to prepare.

Strange things happen in Lubbock.



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'the sun is shining somewhere in texas'

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Post #: 18
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 3:36:29 PM   
greek

 

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Your on the right side Rufuss.
Games a trap UT covers under the fg number atleast.

Colorado will control the line of scrimmage with Purify breaking off
big runs. Play the overflated line as the Buffs will keep this game under double-digits.

The upset will be no surprise to me.

_____________________________

commishonergordon


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Post #: 19
RE: Early thoughts on Texas @ Tx Tech - 10/21/2004 3:42:24 PM   
TheGoldenRhino

 

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I just have a couple of points to make:

1st to BRJ..I'm not sure where your book is, but every line I've seen is going the opposite of what you have. The line opened at 3, & has been dropping steadily (according to wagerline) & is now either Texas minus 1 or pickem.

Also, knowing that a lot of gamblers have a tendency to take favorites, I think they've been begging you to take Texas. At my book they opened at Texas -2 1/2 & are now at -1..."Gee, they just have to win by a FG. They're obviously the best team cause their the favorite. I'll take Texas." They count on people to think that way.

Thanks for the input.

(in reply to TheGoldenRhino)
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