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2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/14/2003 3:14:41 PM   
Number Freak


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2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT


These are the tentative rules. If anyone has a different suggestion, please let it be heard so everyone is happy with the rules. If you haven't already, please give your opinion on the **feedback** rules. Everyone can reply in this thread or send me a private message.


Who's invited -- all Winpicks users who use the 2003 PFA software

Entry fee -- $200 **Need feedback. I would prefer more if anyone else does too**

Payment Deadline -- money order received by August 30, 2003

Prize money -- 60% for 1st, 30% for 2nd and 10% for third

How to track standings -- using Wagerline's contest generator via password (Winpicks lines locked in at any time)

Method for determining winners -- winning % (min. 60 games, avg of 3 per week)

Contest operation -- submit your picks individually each week prior to kickoff

Contest duration -- Begins Week 1 and ends with Super Bowl
If anyone thinks of anything else, let me know. Entries can be sent to:

Bruce Richardson
P.O. Box 412
Golden, CO 80402


- Please include your screen name and e-mail so I can send you a confirmation that I received your entry. Thanks.


For those of you who are new to the forum and unsure about trusting me, you are welcome to scan through the archive posts. I spent alot of my personal time tracking the Winpicks standings last season solely for the benefit of the board, so hopefully you'll see I am a qualified and responsible candidate to conduct this contest in a legitimate and fair manner.


Thank you and best of luck to everyone who joins in! This should be alot of competitive fun all football season!

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Post #: 1
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/14/2003 3:43:19 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

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From: Dayton
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I am so IN!
:-)

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Post #: 2
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/14/2003 10:46:43 PM   
3dognite

 

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I'm in unless I go broke before then :)!!

BTW, did you get my private message? About getting sports data.

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RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/15/2003 10:55:14 AM   
rprt

 

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"Units won" is exactly the wrong criteria to judge the contest winner. Based on what we discussed in the other thread, "winning Percentage" should determine the contest winner.
The amount played could be whatever the individuals want to play, since that would coincide with their personal money management theory. I personally believe that playing the same amount on each game is the best.
The only thing that we would have to decide is a minimum number of games that have to be played for the entire season.
Setting up a group at Wagerline should work out very well for this contest. We would be using Winpicks line all week long. We can password protect it for selected players. We can have amounts from $100 to $500.

One question I have is; are we all going to be using Winpicks or do you (Number Freak) want to use what you are in the process of developing?

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RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/15/2003 3:10:54 PM   
Number Freak


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3dog, yes, I received your message and sent you one back a few days ago. Let me know if you got it.

rprt, units won is "exactly" wrong??? Wow, surprised I didn't see something so obvious!;) I just figured the winner should earn it and not get lucky in a small # of games. Football is so short as it is and if we can't be men and make some picks, then what's the point? I'm not saying to pick every game, hit 53% and win the contest, that won't happen because football is too short, but you're still going to need to hit high 57% to 63% to have a chance either way. If your formulas are worth their weight, they should have to stand up for themselves and PROVE themselves, not squeak out a lucky year. This is my view on this, let's hear some feedback from everyone else. Are we gonna trust our formulas or hope to get lucky picking only 50 games? If you can't muster at least 80 picks in an entire NFL season, then open those betting windows or create some more formulas!

OR, how about this? Two prizes...one for winning % and one for + units? Good suggestion about using Wagerline's contest section for it (save me a lot of work!). I will be using strictly Winpicks for this contest like everyone else because I still want to see if I found a decent winning method with it (as much as one can). As far as my "real" picks, they will be posted on the NFL board and will surely differ. This will also allow me a peek at comparing my two methods' success rates (or at least get me a small sample size to start with).

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RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/15/2003 4:46:23 PM   
rprt

 

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Geeeez Number Freak, You gotta learn to relax. I said in my post that we have to decide on a minimum number of games to be played for the entire season. There are 17 weeks in the season, consisting of 256 games plus 10 playoff games plus the super bowl, for a grand total of 267 games. an 85 game minimum means you would have to average 5 games per week for the 17 week season. 5 games is one-third of the weekly schedule. Thats more than I would want to play but my systems will probably generate that many picks. how do we verify that we are only entering Winpick system generated plays? Oh yeah, chill man.

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Post #: 6
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/16/2003 12:33:53 AM   
Number Freak


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From: New England (Boston)
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rprt,

Maybe you missed the "wink" part of my text which, at least where I'm from, means it is said light-heartedly and should be taken as joking around, so actually maybe it's you that needs to relax. I realize it is difficult sometimes to understand written text when someone is addressing you because there is no tone of voice to help, that's why I put the "wink" in there (to no avail) but this isn't the first time you've said that either (I'm still relaxed BTW) ;)

I was not addressing the rest of it to you but simply expressing my take on earning the victory, so I apologize if it appeared that way. I just want the winner to not be a fluke, that's all. Don't you? (still relaxing) ;)

What you said made me reply the way I did. "Units won" is exactly the wrong criteria to judge the contest winner".

Since you replied back and we are on the subject of text interpretation, can you explain how going by winning % is obviously correct and going by units is "exactly wrong"? Or did you mean to say that you'd simply prefer it the other way? Sorry, but I take every word someone says to me literally (unless I know they are messing around).

Going by winning % is fine with me. Is 75 games closer to being fair? Actually, your question about verifying that the plays are Winpicks-generated gave me another idea.....What if we each submit our formulas at the beginning of the season and ride them throughout the year without being able to tweek them after the season starts and the person with the best formula or consensus results at the end of the year wins? That way we'll know everyone is using Winpicks. This would also reward people for their sheer ability to tweek solid formulas. I almost like this idea better! Just an idea if anyone cares to comment?

Anyway, it was very nice to talk to you, rprt, and thank you kindly for your valuable input and contribution! Have a lovely day! Now I am going to pack a bowl so I can really relax now!!! Peace ;);););)

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RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/16/2003 8:30:59 AM   
rprt

 

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Number Freak,

I get the wink. It wasn't the sentence before the wink, it was the sentence after the wink. You made me think that you did not read my post about the need to determine a minimum. You started to get on me about trying to win by luck rather than skill. Although I have a saying that, "if you give me a choice between good luck and skill, I'll take good luck every time.". But, thats another story
I have to admit that we tend to write things in our posts that pull each others chain. If I ever say anything that hurts your feelings, let me know, and I'll let you know if you do it. Otherwise, don't worry about it.

The reason why I like winning percentage best is because thats the criteria I use for real life betting. Here is my equation; "Small number of plays at a high percentage win rate plus a large fixed amount on each play equals maximum profit at reasonable risk.

If I get into a contest that has the winning criteria as something other than winning percentage I will be trying to create formulas that I wouldn't want to use myself.

I like your idea about freezing the formulas at a certain point. I hate to complicate this part but to add some flexibility for anyone who may be hosed early in the contest, maybe we could change and send in formulas every 3 ,4 ,or 5 weeks to correct errors or miscalculations. Also some people said that they have different formulas for the playoffs. Formula changes would only affect future weeks, not past weeks. We would make the timing criteria very strict for this formula change. But I think your idea would work well.

It's a nice slow Sunday. So as Jonathan Edwards said - "We're gonna lay around the shanty momma and put a good buzz on."

(in reply to Number Freak)
Post #: 8
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/16/2003 12:07:29 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

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If Number Freak's premise is correct, then tweaking formulas has no benefit for future picks, just tunes up past picks...what I want to know is, in your formula submitting scenario, will you allow for fade formulas...that's half of my strategy is a few good fade formulas; and will you allow for the submission of say a 4-formula consensus???

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Post #: 9
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/16/2003 1:23:18 PM   
Number Freak


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GF,

The more thought I give it, the more I'd prefer to stay with everyone just submitting their own picks. Like you, I also have different methods of coming up with my formula plays and making a formula submission rule would limit people too much from being creative using consensuses.

As far as what rprt said about verifying people are actually using Winpicks for this tournament, maybe we can think of a "code word" that one would have to answer to enter. Something easy that only Winpicks users would know, like the last word in the help files or something like that?

Incidentally, I modified the opening post of the thread to show the tentative rules. I will modify them there as we go.

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Post #: 10
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/16/2003 7:52:47 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

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Hey NF,

One other thing, what about multiple entries...


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Post #: 11
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 3/17/2003 1:29:39 PM   
Number Freak


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GF,

Good question. I don't see anything wrong with multiple entries. Anybody else have an opinion on this?

I also changed the prize structure to 70-30 for 1st-2nd. I eliminated 3rd place for now unless we get a ton of entries.

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Post #: 12
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 7/31/2003 6:27:37 PM   
Number Freak


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Hi everyone. Good to see some familiar names back around this neck of the woods. Tomorrow is August 1st and it's time to get this ball rolling. All those with the PFA software are eligible to enter. I haven't purchased my copy yet but will do so some time next week (I figure i'll let you guys have a head start on me) ;)

I'm only purchasing Winpicks this year for this contest as I obviously can't use last year's version to execute my formulas. My normal handicapping will be done elsewhere.

We already have the first entry being sent as of this morning and you can consider me entry #2. I'd like to get at least 10 participants in this. I know a few others that undoubtedly will be joining up real soon and I look forward to seeing you all in my rear view mirror by December! LOL!!

Remember, when you send your entry, include your screen name and e-mail so that I know who you are and can e-mail you the pick instructions.

Best of luck!

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RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/16/2003 4:21:27 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

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Number Freak, I sent you my entry fee about two weeks ago, did you ever receive it...if not I will trace the money order...

G Fool

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Post #: 14
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/16/2003 7:49:09 PM   
Number Freak


Posts: 3294
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From: New England (Boston)
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GF,

No, I haven't. Did you get the address right? I don't check the box every day but I checked it on Wednesday and it wasn't there.

Luckily we still have a couple weeks. Still waiting on a couple of you who I thought were talking a good game last year, but so far have been all show and no go yet. 'Ya hiding?

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Post #: 15
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/16/2003 7:52:57 PM   
Number Freak


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GF,

I'm going to check the box on Monday. If it's in there, i'll let you know. I'll send you a private message Monday night.

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Post #: 16
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/20/2003 3:01:02 PM   
Number Freak


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GF,

You might want to trace the MO. No sign of it yet on this end.


PS - You're private messages aren't enabled.

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Post #: 17
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/20/2003 5:58:13 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

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From: Dayton
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NF,
Got the letter back today, sent it to Bruce Richardson, P.O. Box 142, Golden, CO 80402 and it came back, "return to sender, address unknown, no such number, no such phone..."
I will resend to the correct P.O. Box 412 and see if that does the trick...oooopppppssss!!!

Gamblin' "Dyslexic" Fool

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Post #: 18
RE: 2003 NFL WINPICKS TOURNAMENT - 8/24/2003 5:09:21 PM   
Number Freak


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We have four participants so far with a week left. Would really like to push for closer to 10, so quit your hiding and come join us!

Where's all the characters from last year: Hellbringer, Rebel8, rprt, Jefe, etc.?

You guys are all capable of winning this thing easy! Contact me soon.

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Post #: 19
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