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2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/4/2003 2:30:24 PM   
rprt

 

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Joined: 9/8/2000
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Hi Folks,

Winpicks been very very good to me.
80%_PTS..41-18-3...69.5%...+21.2
SL_80%...22-11-0...66.7%...+9.9
SL3_80%..19-09-0...67.9%...+9.1
50%RP2...44-21-2...67.7%...+20.9
50%RPSL2.28-12-3...70.0%...+14.8

I read the thread that Number Freak wrote about abandoning Winpicks and starting his own databases and I have to say that, for the NFL, it is a waste of time. For all the work that is going to be put into that job, the percentages above are going to be hard to beat. Plus the percentages above will make you rich without improvement.

The less games that you have to play, the better off you will be. Action is fun but it is a good winning percentage and how much you bet that makes you money.

Betting the same amount on every game is the best way to let the winning percentage work for you.

How much you bet depends on whether you are gambling for fun or gambling for a living. If your gambling for fun, bet only what you can afford. If your gambling for a living, you have to bet enough to be able to live on your winnings. That means that money management and high percentage winning systems are the only way to go.
Post #: 1
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/6/2003 9:45:24 AM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
Joined: 1/10/1999
From: Dayton
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I was curious as to your overall winning percentage...since I have to assume many of the picks from your formulas were similar or redundant...depending on whether your redundancy rate was higher for your winners or your losers would change your overall winning percentage...

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 2
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/7/2003 4:01:24 PM   
rprt

 

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Joined: 9/8/2000
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Gambling Fool,
I showed the individual results just to show that a good system will give you excellent results. You have to bet a large enough amount based on the expected plays that you are going to have. The less plays your system will generate, the more you have to bet on each game in order to get to your final planned profit total.

The consensus record for the 5 systems was; 83-45-4..64.8%..+33.5

The hardest part of using the systems is the fact that the final lines are based on the lines at Wagerline right after the games start. This requires some tedious monitoring of lines throughout the week if you want to be accurate with your systems picks. I was reasonably close this year but I could have done better. My winning percentage of actual NFL plays was 61.4%. Towards the end of the regular season I was making my plays 5 to 10 minutes before game time. It is one area that I need to improve next year.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 3
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/7/2003 9:46:55 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
Joined: 1/10/1999
From: Dayton
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Thanks for the info...this was my first full year of NFL winpicks and I hit right around 62% with my picks, unfortunately, I didn't always bet all plays the same...next year I will trust Winpicks and bet evenly...looking forward to collaborating with everyone on this forum to whoop the man!

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 4
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/10/2003 7:13:05 PM   
rprt

 

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Joined: 9/8/2000
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Gambling Fool,

I thought about playing more based on how many of my 5 systems picked the same team. As I watched the first few weeks, my multi picks were no better than my single picks. It may be because three of the systems have a lot in common and the other two have a lot in common. Collaborating is a good idea if it is for sharing systems that are working well. But for sharing picks it doesn't work very well. You always find people posting picks, from there systems, that are against your systems plays. You either have to trust your system or theirs for the long haul.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 5
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/11/2003 7:11:38 AM   
house of sin

 

Posts: 18
Joined: 10/27/2002
From: winnipeg
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my two pennys
just wondering why you would use the lines from wager line
and base your picks on that
seeing the lines you get from your book
or offshore are the ones you bet against
my winning record is way higher using the wagerline lines
but 8 out 10 times the line i bet against isnt the one
i get from wager line
i recommend using manual lines you will notice a big difference
on some or your formulas
ps
manual lines will not work on the new feature
it will only use wager lines data base

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 6
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/12/2003 5:21:51 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
Joined: 1/10/1999
From: Dayton
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Thats a good point House, and one that I think people lose sight of...you can't always translate your formula results into real results...that's why I wanted to know how rprt did in REAL wagering to see the correlation. If you noticed this last season, I always posted the lines that I got my bet in at, and sometimes won, even when I lost on the wagerline closing line. Any future contests or W/L tracking needs to take that into account, IMO.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 7
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 2/13/2003 7:16:11 PM   
rprt

 

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house of sin,
I guess I don't understand your question about using the wagerline or books lines. You have to use the book lines to make your play. but the Winpicks systems use an upper betting window limit and a lower betting window limit. Because of these, there is no real play to make with your book until the line falls between those parameters in the Winpicks system. during the week the line will sometimes move enough so that a play on Monday is not a play on Thursday, then is a play Sunday morning, then is finally not a play 5 minutes before the game starts. Or the other way around. In which case, your book has to have the line the same as Winpicks is showing it or it really is not a play.
That is why I finally decided to make my plays 5 minutes before the games started and only made the plays that gave me acceptable lines between the Winpicks downloaded lines and the books lines. That way my real percentage would stay reasonably close to the Winpicks "after the fact" percentages.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 8
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/1/2003 2:33:56 PM   
Number Freak


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rprt,

No doubt you had a great NFL season as did a few others here at this forum. I understand you thinking what I'm doing is a waste of time due to your results in the 2002 season being hard to improve on, but please consider a few things:

- How much effort did you put into your formulas and consensuses this year? Yes, my endeavor is very time consuming but once it is done, the maintenance is relatively light while Winpicks users will still be tweeking away week after week.

- My project will allow me much more flexibility to find winning formulas because I'm not limited to the general parameters offered in the Winpicks formulas.

- Look at my tracking standings throughout last season. The overall group record was very mediocre, which tells me either you have to really put in a lot of time and testing to reach the "profit" levels of 55-60% or maybe it is all just random results. TWC put in as much time as anybody did on his formulas and had a rough go of it. Maybe you have a better concept of the software, maybe you just had a good year. Keep in mind, one season can be a fluke. What I'm doing is something that i've heard many long-term successful cappers say they do, so I feel more secure in this system than an unproven backfitted software formula. Test your formulas or consensuses season by season and see if every year was as successful as 2002. Throw in the fact that an unusually high amount of dogs covered last year and what side does Winpicks seem to reccommend the most? Dogs. Look at what happened in 1998 (I think), almost every formula lost that year because an unusually high amount of favorites covered.

rprt, I wish you and everyone else continued success. I'm just (as I've always tried to do here at this forum) trying to instill caution to everyone because gambling is a vicious beast that thrives off of the bettor making mistakes. Mediocrity will succumb to the odds every time.

As i've said before, you can make money with Winpicks. I think i've figured out how to do it but I just feel it would be more of a struggle year after year than what I'm doing now. BTW, my 14 manual formulas for the NFL playoffs combine to a 536-128 ATS record (80.7%) over 18 playoff seasons, and 62-6 in the Super Bowl alone, so I don't see any way on earth Winpicks can improve on that, even though it is also backfitted. This is not a consensus either, simply all 14 formulas combined.

For those interested, I will post my NFL plays next year on the football forum because if I'm not using Winpicks then I shouldn't post here. After next year, I probably will not post on Talksport altogether because it is becoming a waste of time, IMO.


Best of luck to all my brothers and sisters here at the most efficient forum on TS.

_____________________________

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(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 9
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/1/2003 9:20:43 PM   
Number Freak


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From: New England (Boston)
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One other thing I noticed, a lot of people miss the point of a consensus. A consensus should never be weaker than all the parts that make it up. You need to remember the true definition of a consensus! Get out the dictionary! If your five formulas are between 66.7% and 70.0%, then a consensus of those 5 formulas should be naturally stronger, like, 75% and if you're betting one unit per play on all unanimous consensus picks, you're ripping yourself off. You would obviously benefit from a majority consensus betting one unit per formula that picks each play. For example, if two formulas out of the five pick the same play, then you would bet 2 units on that play and if a consensus is 4-1, you would wager 3 units, otherwise you're ripping yourself off. A majority consensus trims off the even picks only, right? Even will only be 50% and will always lose you juice in straight bets, so a majority consensus will always be stronger than it's parts.

rprt's 5 formulas were between 66%-70% and his consensus was 64% which means it is a unanimous consensus and the 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 and 4-1 picks that are getting left out are hitting over 70%!!! IMO, a 3-1 selection beats a 1-0 selection hands down. I would pass on the 3-2 selections, though.

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(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 10
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/2/2003 7:56:49 AM   
rprt

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 9/8/2000
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Number Freak,
Welcome back. It's nice to hear from you again. Although based on your first reply, you seem to have gotten out of the wrong side of bed. I did not mean to insult you when I made the statement that your idea was a waste of time (For the NFL only). It's just that the NFL has two things that make it unique from all the other sports. First, the games are played weekly so there is plenty of time to analyze matchups. Second, the teams really do not change very much year to year.
What your doing has been done by everyone that has wagered on NFL football at one time or another. The people that set the lines have the most extensive information system of anyone. Because of the internet, all the information anyone needs to handicap a game is now available. All anyone has to do is put the time in to handicap the games. There is one thing that is very important in the NFL. That is rule changes from year to year.
I am not going to spend any time defending my Winpicks systems. I did all of the tesing that you mentioned. The results speak for themselves.
There is one odd thing I noticed during the season though. I would get the same picks, week after week, whether I used consensus or unanimous. I'm not sure Winpicks knows the difference.
Stop by and post once in awhile. I don't post very often myself, because I don't have that much useful information to share.
Anyway, I wish you good luck in your endeavor. If you go pay on us, I'll know your hitting 75% winners.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 11
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/2/2003 2:09:03 PM   
Number Freak


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From: New England (Boston)
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On the contrary, my friend. If you can maintain 65-70% in NFL you will have the most useful information to share with anybody here! You will be sought after day by day!

First of all, my bed is fine. What others think of what I'm doing concerns me as much as the weather in Spain. Problem is, I respect the people in this forum and want to help them if I see something I think they're missing. Also, I am VERY serious about winning and sometimes I can come across as irritated in text when I'm actually just trying to "teach". I am a "Number Freak" obviously and also I am extremely sharp when it comes to details so I feel I have learned a lot just from observing. I was merely trying to catch you and others from going down the wrong path of thinking one good Winpicks season is going to happen year after year. There is more than one way to succeed at this business and we may each have found one. I just feel much better about what I'm doing now as opposed to last year because it makes all the sense in the world. The nuts and bolts make much more sense to me! Why base your formulas on a few stats (some that don't actually have anything to do with the outcome of a game), home field advantage, point spread multipliers, betting windows, etc. This is too limited and doesn't make much sense. I might as well keep stats like "When my neighbor's dog barks before 9am on the third Thursday of the month, on the day after it rains, home dogs are 23-9! Maybe i'm getting carried away a bit, but hopefully it makes my point. Everything's backfitted but if the nuts and bolts make sense, your chances of success are much greater. Assigning a point value to different game stats that must equal 100% is not exactly a sound science, IMO.

"What your doing has been done by everyone that has wagered on NFL football at one time or another".

Has it? You may be trivializing it just a bit.


"The people that set the lines have the most extensive information system of anyone. Because of the internet, all the information anyone needs to handicap a game is now available. All anyone has to do is put the time in to handicap the games".

Come on man, do you think if it were that easy, sportsbooks would still be in business? If one spends 40 hours a week hating their job, wouldn't they just quit and spend 15 hours a week doing the research and making more money? There's no manual for success, well, actually there is, but it isn't right in front of our eyes on a web page ready to be taken by everybody. What i'm talking about is thinking outside the lines. What i'm looking to dig up are customized situations manually extracted from unusual sources that are unique and most likely not known about by Vegas (at least not in the exact form i'm coming up with) You certainly won't find this stuff on the internet like you're ordering a book. Yes, there is tons of information on the internet, but, truth be told, I see it all as useless information. Vegas are probably the ones publishing these stats. I see so many people on these forums spouting stats and trends that are 90% useless and misleading. People want to win sooooo badly that they'll take anything that remotely looks good and throw their money away and get frustrated. Well, been there, done that! I've given the man enough money to put a down payment on a house in my years of trial and error! I'm ready to start taking some back!

"There is one odd thing I noticed during the season though. I would get the same picks, week after week, whether I used consensus or unanimous. I'm not sure Winpicks knows the difference".

It's because you only have 5 formulas in the consensus. With more, you'll start getting majority plays. And maybe your formulas are similar in makeup. Also, this is to everyone, if your weakest formula hits at 67%, your consensus shouldn't hit at 64%! You need to understand the mechanics of a consensus before continuing!


So, rprt, i'll be around checking the Winpicks forum and seeing how you all are doing. If nothing else, I love talking shop with you guys. The challenge of unlocking that elusive code for success to win consistently fascinates me. When we finally get there, then it will not be as fun and we'll take up the stock market or something and sports betting will become just a job, albeit a good one!


Peace!

_____________________________

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(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 12
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/3/2003 4:36:27 PM   
rprt

 

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Number Freak,

You said that "There is more than one way to succeed at this business and we may each have found one.". Well I sure hope you are right.
Don't hesitate to come back and talk shop with us anytime. If you run into any problems with your work, start a thread about it and we will try to help. Best of luck.

the stock market, hmmmmm.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 13
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/5/2003 7:49:24 AM   
house of sin

 

Posts: 18
Joined: 10/27/2002
From: winnipeg
Status: offline
i have been pissin around with winpicks off and on now
for 3 or 4 years
many countless hours trying to find an edge
were i can spend less time capping and more time for what ever
what i found is this the bbl is a wast of time trust me
pfb has some merit
but for some one who wants to make money at this gambling thing
winpicks isnt the answer
great for a usefull tool for stats and thats it
take it for what its worth
ive been gambling a long time
lost a shit load of money and what i found is this
1 there isnt a magic gennie
2 all the time you spend on winpicks try spending it on capping
3 if your lazy you will lose
4 if your a new gambler learn all you can about gambling
before you start

5 patience let the games come to you do you know how many games there are you can bet on in a year a fuck of alot
6 money managment (self explanitory )
7 see 6
8 see 6
this is the biggest problem ive hade to deal with and still do
food for thought
in a coarse of a year do you ever come across a game that you know
this is the big one
its a feeling you know but the problem is you probably bet 3 other games that day and split or make a small prophit
well ive come to realize what if i just bet those 10 or 20 games
a year when the time is right and bet for example 1000.00 on each
and win 14 of 20 thats 7400 prophit
for the smaller gamblers that bet 100 or 200 on games
you end up betting 1000 or more on a whack of games in a month anyway
and be honest some days your hot and alot of days your not
result i doubt you made any money
in closing when i learn 5 6 7 8 i think this is the ticket
the phrase practice what you preach stands out
one day
i hope lossing sucks
and when all else fails
BECOME A BOOKIE thats were the money is

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 14
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/5/2003 3:14:48 PM   
Number Freak


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From: New England (Boston)
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House,

Good points. When I started using Winpicks and I heard people say to use it only as a tool and not as a primary weapon, I didn't want to hear that because I didn't know a better way offhand to win at this and I just bought this software and thought just because I spent the $100 my days of losing were over and the software was going to instantly provide success. Then I realized how much effort was involved. Being extremely motivated, I spent literally hundreds of hours tweeking formulas and spending so much time on the software that it was basically sink or swim for me. For those of you who i've heard over time say you spend "a few hours" tweeking formulas each week, well, I was more thorough. I spent 7 or 8 hours a day. I once spent 4 hours tweeking ONE parameter of ONE formula alone! Many of you don't realize the formula results you can come up with if you really try. All my formulas showed incredible results. I had a college football consensus of I think only 4 formulas that had a 17-year unit profit of almost 500 units!

Since I went the extra mile on my formulas I thought that would give me the edge over everyone that didn't and when people would compare the results they got, mine were superior in any sample size. Did it help me? I started the football season white hot for a month and a half! I was at 62% in college in mid-October and up over 60 units in both college and pro. I was thinking I had found the formula for success because I put so much time into it. I more than tripled my offshore bankroll in less than half a season. A guy I work with was a bookie and I decided since I was doing so great I'd also bet with him to make some extra pocket money. Well, I don't know if it was just coincidence or what, but as soon as I started betting with him AND my offshore, Winpicks turned on me. I proceeded to lose the next 5 weeks in a row, lost alot to the bookie AND everything I won at my sportsbook.

That was when I lost faith in Winpicks as a primary tool. I know hot and cold streaks happen, but I went from 62% in the first 6 weeks to literally 35% in the next 5 and I wasn't doing anything different. Cold streaks are one thing, but a complete 180 of my winning percentage? 35% for 5 weeks of bets is devastating and completely unacceptable!

This led me to believe that Winpicks results are really just random and there is not enough scientific basis to expect it to produce winners. If someone logical and unbiased asked you, "How does the software pick winners?" You would say,

"You tweek formulas that show good results in past contests to predict future success."

"Oh, then it's backfitted?"

"Yeah, but the results are really strong!"

"Cool, so how do the formulas recommend a play?"

"The formulas create a predicted margin of victory for each game and if it varies from the actual point spread to fit your set betting windows, the software will recommend a play."

"Wow, cool, so how do you create the formulas?"

"You assign point values for home field advantage, point spread multiplier, blowout limiters and game stats that must total 100%. Pro basketball has number of games at home or on the road and both college packages have strength of conferences"

"Huh? How are those categories relative to picking point spread winners?"

"Um, I don't know but look at these winning percentages!"


So, I explored the rest of the software. See, when someone buys the software they go right to the formulas as if that's all there is, but situation analysis helped me more as did power ratings and RPI indexes, etc. so I finished the year using formulas, trends, power ratings, etc. altogether, but I merely stopped the bleeding and basically broke even the rest of the way.

I didn't give up on Winpicks because I didn't know how to use it, but whenever I lose my ass, I re-evaluate my system. I took off the blinders that wanted me desperately to have found a winning method and questioned the whole process like I just did above. Folks, if something doesn't make sense, then it is likely going to fail in the long run. Just make sure you question the root of your system. The Winpicks process of formulas and consensuses makes total sense but the categories used to determine point spread winners doesn't to me. Do they really make sense to anyone? If so, i'd like to hear your explanation. Even the trends Winpicks provides make sense but the results they offer won't really help you either.

The software has served as a nice springboard for me personally to understand mechanics and how to assemble relative information to beat the point spread. The problem is, as it stands, the software is not set up in the proper way to efficiently succeed year after year.

I don't mean to be a nay-sayer, because I really do like the software and I will probably purchase it again next year to assist me with certain areas, but those of you getting excited after one good season of football must come to the sobering realization that football is the shortest length sport of all and i'll use "rprt's" 5 formula results as an example. The largest sample size was 67 games (44-21-2). Are you folks really going to form an opinion that the software is going to make you rich off of a 67-game track record? I don't remember rprt's actual final record but I know it wasn't as high as those formula results show. Win/loss records don't even begin to be proven until they reach at least 500 decisions, which in NFL will take you 5-10 years. 1000 decisions is actually closer to being legit. If you reach 1000 decisions with any method, you can pretty much trust that your results are not just chance anymore but actual expectancy. Basketball will take you a few years.

As I said in a topic going on in the football forum, most gamblers are so desperate to win they blindly just look for small pockets of success and run with it, not stopping to think "Why is it successful?" If after you dig as deep as you can asking why, and you drive off the road of logic, you're probably on the wrong road.

_____________________________

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(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 15
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/5/2003 5:54:51 PM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
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From: Dayton
Status: offline
Number Freak and Rprt, we have a lot in common, in that I carry a healthy skepticism about gambling on sports in general. I agree that Winpicks is a fairly amateurish attempt at looking at the factors involved in sports betting...also there is no attempt to determine relationships between the factors...in horseracing, for example, I know a fellow who has looked at 186,000 races, all classes, all distances and concluded that all of the minor factors that horseplayers had been touting for years like equipment, i.e, lasix, blinders, and post position had no bearing over the long run in the final product, but lifetime earnings was the most consistent positive predictive factor, had a large bearing...Winpicks does a good job at picking the SU winners, but struggles ATS, why is that, because Microbrothers doesn't incorporate ATS records as part of the handicapping formula...if you could penalize those teams that have poor ATS records, you would improve your winning by % points...think about it, there is a human bias built into lines that must be recognized and overcome to be successful! The UNDERDOG had it right, take the points, find a team that can win outright, and should win outright and take the points...this significantly limits your plays, but increases your take, and that's the bottom line...do you want action or do you want profit? Can't have both...anyway RPRT or NUMBER FREAK, I would love to correspond with either of you on this subject or gambling in general, perhaps via email so we don't bore with no interest in the purist view of gambling...thanks again for the very introspective thread...

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 16
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/5/2003 8:28:47 PM   
house of sin

 

Posts: 18
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From: winnipeg
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number freak
i dont know you from a hole in the ground
but i got to tell you from reading alot of your posts on how you do your shit we were pretty close on what were trying to achieve
thats the part of trying to be a sucsessful gambler
but in my opinion thers only one way
no machines hardwork selfcontrol and a brain and some balls
and with that and little luck
one day the sacrafice will pay off
good luck

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 17
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/6/2003 12:53:42 AM   
Number Freak


Posts: 3294
Joined: 8/28/2002
From: New England (Boston)
Status: offline
Gambling Fool, anytime.

house of sin, all those elements are the key but I must admit machines can certainly make some things easier!

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(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 18
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/6/2003 9:42:37 AM   
Gambling Fool

 

Posts: 304
Joined: 1/10/1999
From: Dayton
Status: offline
Number Freak,

email me at Gdavid850@aol.com so that we may continue this dialog....thanks!

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 19
RE: 2002 Winpicks NFL Recap. (Or What I Learned This Year) - 3/6/2003 1:53:55 PM   
rprt

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 9/8/2000
From:
Status: offline

Gambling Fool,

Why don't you start a thread in the General Discussion Forum. That way anyone that feels that they have something constructive to add can do it. Also anyone interested in reading it may pick up some helpful hints for handicapping. If it doesn't look like it is working, we can go the email route. Think it over.

(in reply to rprt)
Post #: 20
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