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NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/24/2002 10:33:11 PM   
Sooner Fan

 

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Hi. I have been using Winpicks for about a month now and have tweaked a NBA formula that is showing 18-1-1 ATS for a 94.67% record for year to date.
Another NBA one for totals is 31-10-0 for 75.6%. Trying to tweak this one to improve it.

For NFL Football, I have the sides tweaked to 17-1-0 ATS for 94.4% and the best I have on Totals is 12-1-0 for 92.3%. These represent YTD analysis.

I would like to ask the veterans if this is good or how does it compare with formulas that you have developed. I appreciate any input you may have. Thanks and have a nice day.



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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/24/2002 10:37:18 PM   
Sooner Fan

 

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I forgot. For the NBA, I created a formula to fade and check it against my potential winning picks. I have this tweaked to a 17-34-1 for 33.33% YTD. Does anybody else ever use a fade to compare or help support your formulas designed to pick winners?

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 12:17:19 AM   
Number Freak


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Anything less than 100% is unacceptable!

Of course it's good!!! Would you be happy hitting over 90%??? I thought so! Actually, most of us have really good formula results but you must use caution because tweeking formulas on past results is not necessarily an indicator of how they will perform in the present. If it were that easy we'd all be rich.

As far as including fade formulas, it's a good idea but I don't know if it will help since I personally don't use any. I just use THE WORLD CHAMPION instead;)

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 4:20:00 AM   
colagada

 

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The problem with such a small sample is that it's probably inadvertantly backfitted to the results. I've played with the formula over different numbers of dates checked, and I've gotten some very general ones up to as high as 60% (getting a lot of plays) over at least 500 dates. The problem is that when I change anything, the ATS goes down to around 50-51%. For example, if I use Rolling-games=10 and change it to 9 or 11 or 8 or 12, the ATS drops to 50%. Logically, it shouldn't fall that far, but it usually does.

The best way to test your formula is to try it over the past 140 dates. That will take in this year and about half of last year plus the playoffs and give you an idea of recent performance. Your formula's ATS and O/U %'s will probably fall considerably. Then try it for the full 2500+ dates. Don't be surprised if you end up around 50-50.5%, though.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 6:17:50 AM   
EvenYourOdds

 

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18-1-1 WOW!!! would you mind sharing that formula?

I currently have 5 formulas that I use for Sides. 3 are hitting at 70%+ and the other 2 are at 33% and 29% that I use to fade. I usually just do a consensus for the 5 plays and choose from there.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 9:25:13 AM   
Sooner Fan

 

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To Evenyourodds:

Here is the NBA sides formula that I currently have. Hope I attached it correctly.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 10:47:37 AM   
EvenYourOdds

 

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Thanks soonerfan, that is impressive 18-1-1, with the only loss coming yesterday.


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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 12:54:03 PM   
Number Freak


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"...with the only loss coming yesterday."

That would raise a red flag for me. Usually you can backfit formulas to look stellar YTD but when you start wagering on it, it can start losing instantly. We had a backfitted 17-0 NFL formula posted a few weeks back that immediately went 1-2 the first Sunday "for real". There was another NFL formula posted last year that went 21-0 two years ago for the entire year and followed that performance by going something like 6-14 last year. I had an NBA formula backfitted last year that was over 61% for 12 seasons and it went 22-24 last year. Just use caution!

As far as the sample size, hellbringer re-tweeks periodically using only 20 dates or so and has had success in NFL. Who knows???

Rebel8, if you read this, since you would be considered "Mr. Winpicks" so far in all 4 sports, I'd like to know your philosophies. You obviously are doing something right.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 1:44:39 PM   
EvenYourOdds

 

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Well, I wouldn't say that is a red flag. I don't think you will ever find a formulat that is 100% Crazy things happen in the world of sports, that can prevent a win ATS.

But... going to track how this formula does, before actually wagering on it.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 5:40:06 PM   
Rebel8


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Number Freak,

This is my first year using winpicks so in a large part "beginners luck",and lucky to have this forum to draw from.

My routine:
Spend time developing formulas: my own and tweaking those found here.
Each week: I look first ytd for each formula.
Then I look at 6 dates for each formula.
Follow same routine for Group consensus.
(Groups are sets of formulas ramdomly selected and tested
throughout the year).
Use plays from 65% or better.
Result: AS the programs state..(recommended plays)
Next..Look: Winpicks threads for plays. Check latest injury reports.
Eliminate as many picks as possible.
Hopefully, you are left with winners.

IMHO I cannot possibly find out anything that the the oddsmakers do not already know. The answer to the Holy Grail {52.5%}lies in the stats.

Hope this helps.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 7:16:05 PM   
house of sin

 

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sooner fan thanks for the formula
i dont want to sound like an ingrate
but i must be missing something
are you using season to date ore rolling avg or bal avg
tried all but no go on those percentages you posted

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 7:30:11 PM   
house of sin

 

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spoke to soon
got it
if you use the same formula with a rolling avg of 16 games
you get 68% on totals
thx again

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Post #: 12
RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 10:05:20 PM   
Sooner Fan

 

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Hey everybody, thanks for your comments and input. Even if I find the perfect formula, sometimes lack of discipline is my biggest downfall. It seems so easy to take someone else's tip or pick and bet on it sometimes. I have found one of my best systems to be if someone tells me they absolutely love a side and they are willing to be alot of money on it, I will take the other side. Just seems like human nature. It's about as good a system as I have seen. Thanks again.


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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/25/2002 10:24:07 PM   
Sooner Fan

 

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Here is an updated totals formula for YTD NBA. It is 29-2 for 93.5% YTD. I tested it back as far as 220 dates and it still reflected positive units at 52.7%. Let me know if anybody can improve it. I am open for suggestions. Thanks again.

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Post #: 14
RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/26/2002 2:07:57 PM   
Number Freak


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A couple things:

"Even Your Odds", the red flag I was referring to was if that first loss coming yesterday was the first day of action for that formula. In other words, if the formula was backfitted to 18-0 and the first day of "real" action it goes 0-1, that's a red flag. A formula is only as good as the results from the present and future, that's why I brought up the backfitted 21-0 formula in NFL that went 6-14 the following year. If this 18-1 formula was crafted before the season started, you'd have something to get really excited about. I hope it happens for anyone here! You're doing the right thing by tracking it first before wagering on it and I just hope everyone does that otherwise they could lose money. I don't believe anything until I see it actually work!

"House Of Sin", the formula you had trouble finding the database for was a sides formula but you changed the database and got 68% on totals! That's pretty funny! Now you have two formulas! The data method numbers I believe are "2" for STD, "3" for rolling avg and "4" is balanced avg and the value is the number of games, so the original formula was a balanced avg of 2 games to get the 18-1-1 record for sides and if everyone modifies it to a rolling 16 games and saves it as a different formula, you'll get a 68% totals formula. Pretty crazy!

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/26/2002 5:28:12 PM   
Sooner Fan

 

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Number Freak. Regarding your comments on backfitting a formula for YTD, isn't the idea to tweak a formula on an ongoing basis to try and improve it then keep backtesting it? It seems like to me it is like buying stocks, what may work in a bull market won't be as successful in a bear market. As the season changes, do you change your formulas? If you have a formula that is 18-0 ytd and then goes
0-5 the next five games, that is bad. But what if after those five games you change a few of the parameters and it is now 23-0. Do you have confidence in that enough to bet it or would you just watch it to see how it goes from there?

I appreciated your comments on how you go through and come up with your picks and that makes sense. Thank you.


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If you wish success in life, make perseverance your bosom friend, experience your wise counselor, caution your elder brother and hope your guardian genius.
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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/26/2002 9:47:26 PM   
THE WORLD CHAMPION

 

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Sooner Fan, very good question, I'll run some preliminary tests, and let you know as a soon as I have an answer. I've been very busy lately, but will try and have an answer by the end of the week. ;)


The NBA season does take some pretty amazing twists and turns as the season progresses. so far this season, I haven't done well at all, but that's fine because its still the first 30 days in the season. BUT I'LL FIGURE IT OUT IN ORDER TO GET BACK ON THE WINNING SIDE. I do currently have a system play that's 59-2 going back the last 40 dates.


The problem is , it's not a consensus formula. It's a manual formula I created myself taking several different factors into consideration, that the regular formulas overlook . So I need to just keep going backwards over the next 100 dates and eventually over the next 500 dates and see what happens. Since it's done manually, I have to go through each game individually and test it which is very time consuming.


It takes about 6 minutes to test 1 date. So that's about 18 hours to test an entire season. and about 220 hours to test the last 12 years. So this'll take a few months to test which I should have completed by the start of the 2003-04 NBA season.


But it does look very promising, and is already 44-0, this season alone. On tuesday night 11/26, the system plays were Indiana which already won and Utah, which is still in progress, which wins, will raise the record to 46-0 this season. ;)

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/27/2002 1:43:12 AM   
Number Freak


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TWC, care to explain what you're doing? Sounds very promising, maybe we can help you complete it faster.


Sooner, there's many ways to go about tweeking formulas. In the past, I have tweeked for the last 5 rolling years and as the season progresses you're getting the newest stats combined with 5 years of proven success. Others here go for strictly recent stats and have been very successful so you may do well with the method you're using. If you look at my very mediocre record in football and basketball so far, it would be hard to sell you on my method even though I feel I understand the software pretty well. Through trial and error, we will figure out what works best for all of us and I think we will win more than we lose!

To answer your other question, I wouldn't trust a backfitted 100-0 formula! The word "backfitted" says it all. A formula's only as good as it's present and future results. What good are those 100 wins if you didn't get any of them? If only we could "front"fit a formula, huh?

Good luck.

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RE: NBA Formula Comments/questions - 11/29/2002 2:26:23 PM   
Number Freak


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Case in point to wait and watch first before you wager with these backfitted formulas:

The 18-1-1 NBA sides formula that was posted has gone 0-2 since.

The 29-2 NBA totals formula that was posted has gone 3-4 since.

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