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Want to trade formulas? - 9/27/2002 3:11:29 PM   
2006

 

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Post the ATS or Totals records and units for your formulas and I will trade you one of equal or more value. Individual formulas only, not a consensus. Also only post results for last 17 yrs for PFA and CFA and the last 12 yrs for PBA. Please no formulas or modified formulas that came with the software. I will probaly not be interested in a formula that does not have at least a 55% win rate over 17 yrs or 12 yrs respectively. Any takers?
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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 9/27/2002 7:30:47 PM   
2006

 

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Nobody has any original formulas that hit at least 55% over the last 17yrs that they want to trade?

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 9/28/2002 6:17:14 PM   
hellbringer507

 

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most all the 10 or so that i have posted here go over 55% for 17 years.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 9/29/2002 9:08:21 PM   
Old King

 

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I'LL POST A FORMULA THAT IS 56.2% GOING BACK 791 DATES FOR PRO FB ATS, IF YOU CAN POST 1 BETTER (THAT IS DIFFERENT) IF YOU CAN'T, YOU LEAVE THIS SITE.TIME TO PUT UP OR SHUT UP.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 9/30/2002 2:32:51 AM   
Number Freak


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Do you have a CFB formula around 56.2% +193.6 units for all dates? I'd love to get another one of those.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 9/30/2002 11:03:27 PM   
2006

 

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Here ya go boys. Enjoy! :)

791 Dates: 316-221-16, 58.8%, 72.9 units

YTD: 11-2-1, 84.6%, +8.8 units

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 12:46:55 PM   
2006

 

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NUMBER FREAK I have a good CFA formula for you but for some reason the file won't attatch successfully. I contacted microbro and will post once the problem is corrected. The formula is just over 100 units for 17yrs but hits at a 60% clip and is 6-3 this year. If this problem is not resolved by Thursday I will post a text version. Good Luck.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 4:54:05 PM   
southernfox

 

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Numbers Freak..i know you have shared a lot of your formulas..did you share the college formula that gets 100+ units...i can't believe you guys can come up with something of that magnitude..i am totally exasperated with the college program and my efforts to come up with some formulas...

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 5:00:03 PM   
southernfox

 

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Here are a couple of college formulas that you may can play around with..doing decently now...

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 5:01:10 PM   
southernfox

 

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i don't know what happen just then..that was not the name of the formula i sent...it was formula1.cff! Let me see if it has the right parameters.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 5:02:18 PM   
southernfox

 

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well..it looks like the right one...it just renamed itself for some reason.

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 5:03:16 PM   
southernfox

 

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next

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/1/2002 5:04:08 PM   
southernfox

 

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/2/2002 1:32:46 AM   
Number Freak


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SoFox,

I don't believe I've posted any formulas on this forum yet, however I'll post one now since you asked.

I get a little uncomfortable when someone posts a formula on this site because I don't believe it helps us learn anything. If we all end up using the same formulas, we're all going to have the same picks and what fun would that be? Having different formulas and different approaches to the software is going to help us progress further, quicker. Plus, you just know the people that only take everyone else's formulas probably aren't putting the software to proper use and they are not going to get their money's worth.

I know you are not one of those people. I can see how much work you've put in this and how much knowledge you have of the software. College formulas are tough. I'm going to ask microbros if they can include the Surelock Wizard in each program in the future.

ANYWAY, to stay within what I just said, I'm going to post a formula with a lesson/dilemma attached to it, that way I'm not just giving everyone who reads this the same formula but instead something for everyone to check out....

"2006" attached a kick ass formula here the other day. He has had problems attaching it since, but I was able to retreive it the first time. As he sent it, the 17-year results were 59.9% +104.4 units. Pretty good, huh? I fiddled around with the betting windows for a bit, opening them up and brought the units all the way up to 162.2 just by increasing the number of picks the formula produces. Now, the flip side to this, because the amount of picks (17 yrs) went up from 676 to 3342, is that the ATS drops to 54.7%.

So, the lessons here...Betting Windows are extremely pivotal in a formula, but moreso....Which would you prefer? 59.9% +104.4 or 54.7% +162.2? This goes back to the thread on "Formula Discussions". I'm not sure of the answer yet.

Anyway, here's the formula that 2006 tried to post with my changes to the BW. So, this is the 162-unit version. If you want the other version, the windows should be set at 0.0-1.0.



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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/2/2002 1:43:57 AM   
Number Freak


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Oops, I had it the other way around. The file is the 104-unit version with the 59.9% ATS. If you want the 54.7% +162.2 unit version, change the betting windows to 0-0 and 5.0.

One other thing, Southernfox, those formulas you posted don't look very strong. I would only have mostly single-digit adjustments on the conferences. Any higher than that skew the results IMO.

Hope any of this helps.

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(in reply to 2006)
Post #: 15
RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/2/2002 2:22:57 PM   
southernfox

 

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Now you see why Winpicks for College has been totally useless for me..even when i go back and test the ones that have single digit parameters..i come up with nothing successful. To me, college is a different animal than nflpro..because of what it is using for statistical measure..Am i right when i am assuming it is basing its predictions on Strength of conference? If i'm right i have a couple of other questions for you...

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RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/2/2002 4:06:10 PM   
Rebel8


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Sorry, but I don't know how to make an attachment.

This formula is one I use for Totals only. It holds steady around 57% up to 400 dates, then it drops off. YTD it is 11-3-2 for +7.7 units.

Name: Diamond
Balanced avg. last 30 games

Home field -3.5
Blowout 28.5
Point spread .75
Lower 3.5
upper 7.0
winning 1.0
1a -5.0
Acc 4.5
Big East 3.5
Big Twelve 6.5
Big Ten 7.0
Big west 2.75
Independents 1.0
Mid American -1.5
Pac 7.0
SEC 9.5
Southwestern -3.
WAC 3.5
USA -1.5
MTN WEST -1.0
Sun Belt -2.0

Anyone tweaking this to a better percentage could help us all.

I believe that it is more important to have a higher percentage for the last 5 years than more units for the whole history of football. So many coaching changes, rule changes, talent etc. in nearly two decades has to skew the results of any given formula. Just a humble opinion.
Any comments appreciated.

(in reply to 2006)
Post #: 17
RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/2/2002 7:35:23 PM   
2006

 

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NUMBER FREAK thanks reposting that CFF formula for me. I don't know why I can't attatch files anymore.
OLD KINGS'S Turn!

(in reply to 2006)
Post #: 18
RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/3/2002 2:10:48 AM   
Number Freak


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rebel8,
your last 5 years ATS on your totals formula was 54.6% +9.6
I got it to 60.2% +27.4
Problem is, it's only 9-8-1 this season. Of course, it can be tweaked much further. I didn't have time tonight but maybe one day soon.

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Post #: 19
RE: Want to trade formulas? - 10/3/2002 2:49:09 AM   
Number Freak


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SoFox I agree. It seems a far too basic measurement in college.

What are your other questions?

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