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WinPicks and line movements - 9/10/2002 5:22:35 PM   
Number Freak


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I put this on a new topic from another thread so people can read it.

When I used WinPicks last year for NBA, the biggest problem I ran into was the line movements. Say a line was -3 earlier in the day and your formulas recommend a pick, the line would change right before tipoff to -2.5 which wouldn't be a recommended pick anymore, but maybe you didn't set the line to -2.5 in WinPicks and you end up losing a game you shouldn't have ended up betting. You need to realize where WinPicks is getting their results that you are treating as the letter of the law: they are from Wagerline's closing numbers. Therefore, you have to make sure you update the lines from Wagerline as late as you can before you bet it. Unfortunately, time constraints can be a problem. Some people are at work when the games go off. I had a bookie that needed my plays around 6:45 for the 7:00 games and Wagerline wouldn't update their lines until 7:00, and these were the biggest line movements right before game time! Soooo, you kind of have to do a little fancy footwork if you want things to be a little more accurate.

Another problem was when the line goes from -3 to -2.5 no longer recommending a pick EVEN IF THE PICK WAS THE FAVORITE who is actually getting a better line now. I kept track of these situations in the NBA last year and found that if you still bet these teams you would have had a very favorable record. Another thing I kept track of was line movements due to an injury status of a key player. Obviously there are a lot of "game time decisions" that affect the line in a big way. My experience from this was to throw out any game that had a line affected by an injured player even if WinPicks recommended a pick because it throws off what WinPicks is trying to do. I would love to know what the formula results would be for the entire 12 years (17 for NFL) if you threw out all these affected games.

So, don't be a slave to WinPicks and the lines. You need some human intervention at times to out-think the machine because the machine doesn't know why the lines are where they are. I would suggest to move each line ahead of time a few points either way to see where the picks are going to be and, like I said, still bet a team if it falls off WinPicks' radar but is a more favorable line, unless affected by an injury.

Computer software like this is not perfect and sometimes deceiving. You have to dig in and get your hands dirty to make sure you're getting accurate information. There are other scenarios I noticed last year which, if you want, I'll go over when I have more time.

Good luck!

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RE: WinPicks and line movements - 9/13/2002 5:52:18 PM   
Rebel8


Posts: 450
Joined: 11/25/2001
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Just saw your thread.
Last week ran formulas early and went 10-4 against spread. Ran them Sunday and the same formulas went 8-8. This was all due to line changes from the time I bet them. Your warnings are well stated.

Knowing this how do you best evaluate your formulas. Undertaker states +1200 in 12 years, by my estimate that could go 3 or 4 hundred units either way in lieu of line changes from 1/2 point to 3 or more.

Thanks for your input. Only been using winpicks this fb season.

(in reply to Number Freak)
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RE: WinPicks and line movements - 9/14/2002 1:36:01 AM   
Number Freak


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What I would do is evaluate the formulas as they are (based on Wagerline's closing lines) and continue my picks as close to Wagerline's latest numbers as I can. In other words, wait as long as you can to wager to get the latest lines and base your picks on Wagerline's numbers even if your sportsbook is a little different. I usually download the latest lines right as I'm ready to wager and just go with those picks. I think this is the truest method to attempt to achieve the same results as your formulas keeping in mind the situations I stated on the opening thread. It's not gonna be perfect, but at least close.

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RE: WinPicks and line movements - 9/16/2002 10:52:42 PM   
2006

 

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Good topic. I use a consensus line from the free donbest screen. I normally use Cris, Olympic, WWTS, Cascade, Canbet and Pinnacle to form my consensus. I also try to get a consensus as close to gametime as possible which can be a handful on Saturday. I have debated whether I would do better using wagerline. Does anybody know where wagerline gets it lines from? Stardust?

(in reply to Number Freak)
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RE: WinPicks and line movements - 9/17/2002 5:45:16 PM   
Number Freak


Posts: 3294
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From: New England (Boston)
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Not sure where Wagerline gets their lines. I also tried using a consensus line last NBA season, but I don't think that's the best method anymore.

It's this simple...WinPicks' formula results are based on Wagerline's closing numbers, therefore base YOUR picks this year on Wagerline's closing numbers. In other words, wait 'till the last minute! No way in hell would I make my NFL picks on Monday! The picks are going to change by Sunday. Same with hoops except they change in one afternoon. You are wasting your money on WinPicks if you don't use it appropriately. There is so much to figure out with this software as well as gambling as a whole. If you're like me, you've lost a lot of money learning lessons. I'm still figuring things out but I learned that lesson last year.

So, for everyone popping their cherry on WinPicks with the NFL, this is lesson #1.


Best of luck.

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(in reply to Number Freak)
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