DERBY TALK AND PICKS: As May 4 approaches: updates (Full Version)

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sportster1 -> DERBY TALK AND PICKS: As May 4 approaches: updates (4/9/2019 6:00:53 PM)

It's comin up: first Sunday in May. Let's get em good, boys. The Derby is always where the biggest money is. I've got a cpl to watch.

(And pssst: when I was on "the other side" a cpl times in the past 2 months, I had a guy on a white horse
whisper some names into my ear.! I'll be sharing those in a cpl weeks. )


The person on the white horse suggested I not rule out 30/40--1's Haikal and Vekoma, cos they are legitimate longshots this year.
I'm ignoring Tacitus but doi like Game Winner,.
I'm staying away from Omaha Beach (if only 3-1??), by my standards, improbable, max security, and science fiction unless one of em jumps up to double digits.




retired ref -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (4/29/2019 1:17:28 PM)

only 5 days till ! greatest 2 minutes in sports
according to some




Rosie -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (4/30/2019 8:00:01 AM)





Ive changed my mind on my selection 3 or 4 times already but have landed on a horse with nice odds.
I like the field this year as in my opinion there is no real favorite as I truly believe 8-9 of these horses have a legit shot at winning .




djlocks1 -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/1/2019 12:40:38 PM)

$20 13 to place
$20 8 to place
$20 6 to show
$20 7 to show




ayyoCJ -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/2/2019 11:57:31 AM)

Wow! Love these takes..
Times closing in, what do you think now? Especially with Good ol Omaha Beach having a frog in their throat?!




Rosie -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/2/2019 12:43:55 PM)


I wasn't betting Omaha to Win so I have mixed emotions with the scratch.
It will definitely lower the odds on my selection with win money on Omaha out of the pool. 

On the positive side its one less quality horse that I have to beat. 
  I hate the fact BAFFERT has the next three morning line favorites ,tired  of this guy winning all the time.

 So obviously I don't like a Baffert horse [:D]





North Ender -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/3/2019 4:04:09 AM)

Hi Rosie, I know nothing about horse racing so can you tell me who to bet in the Derby. Thank You! Skip




sportster1 -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/3/2019 6:13:47 AM)

Haikal just scratched---one of my long longshots. CRAP
I see half a doz. mudders (cos if it's not pouring, it'll be a wet wet track.)
Game Winner, War of Will, Max. Security, Improbable, by my standards.
I like Win Win Win moreso than Tacitius. (Maybe Restless Rider)

Country House is my obvious closer, in the mud.

Did I miss one somewhere? THX




Rosie -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 8:23:07 AM)

Should be a great Derby guys as it appears more wide open than in the las 4-5 years especially with Omaha scratching.
Not sure how much more I could study this race as i’ve followed the workouts , watched every replay you can watch, read every storie
possible and now after burying my head in a racing form all night ! No more starting to over think it.
i’m playing #8 Tacitus to win wet or dry shouldn’t matter. with so many horses in the race the key is the first 1/8 mile and how they set up going into the first turn. I need my horse to sit anywhere from 5th thru 10, don’t want him up front battling and don’t think he will be and don’t want him in the back half with traffic and to much work to do. I suspect he will sit patiently behind the leaders and then as they come off the far turn start to make his move and pick off horses one at a time. Think he will be 4 or 5 wide off the rail and go by at about the 1/16th pole. I’m going to the track so it’s important to put my derby bets in when i get there and bury them in my pocket before
I bet the 9 live races beforehand! If or as i win thru out the day i’ll make more win tickets and keep burying them and hopefully have more action. It’s a tough race but nothing better than 20 horses slugging it out. good luck to you all.

#8 Tacitus to WIN
#8 -all exacta box wheel
50 cent tri 8/ all /all. ($153)




Michelangelo -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 9:17:15 AM)

Sometimes a race like this can get me to overthink.

I had Serenghetti who won the Oaks yesterday. The filly went to the lead out of the gate and never looked back. Wire to wire. So the track is not gonna hurt speed, might actually help it.

Who's the best speed horse today? Maximum Security. Also romped in his only mud race. Also is 4/4. Never lost. Also has the two best Beyers in the race, both coming in his last two races.

The bonus is that this horse could actually be "speed alone". This is a huge winning angle. Please note that NO other horse in this race has EVER won a race going wire to wire.

Good luck, guys.




tigerman -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 9:59:32 AM)

Joe Sullivan's analysis and picks.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2019/05/01/handicapping-saturday-kentucky-derby/mEEofjNUDHBE9HEssXLc4O/story.html




Sam Ace Rothstein -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 12:02:59 PM)

tacitus




shoeless -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 12:04:26 PM)




don't see any super star in the derby but good race for bettors.

my key horse in by my standards #3
take with #5 #17 and #16
exacta #3 with #5 #16 # 17

odd that the first and second place santa anita derby horses are boxed next to each other.




sportspicks -> RE: As May 4 approaches: updates (5/4/2019 2:32:29 PM)

6 Vekoma $10w $20p $40s

4 horse $2 tri box 6-8-16-20




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