SB stuff (Full Version)

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Riderx -> SB stuff (1/28/2019 5:08:17 PM)

  It's funny.  Down here in the South everything shuts down before an expected hard freeze snow storm hits.  Better safe than sorry, I guess.  Only expecting 1"-2" of snow tonight...[:D]  I was there in Mass. for the blizzard of '78; now that was a f*ckin' snow storm.

   Anyway, even though I have a lack of interest in this SB, I'm looking at some stuff.  Putting all the storylines and bullsh*t aside, I lead with this:

   During the regular season, the Patriots allowed more than 27ppg vs non-division opponents on the road.

   Even going back to '01, there has been only 1 other SB favorite that allowed more than 25ppg vs non-division opponents on the road:

   The Broncos -2 vs the Seahawks

   They got blasted 43-8 by Seattle

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/29/2019 7:56:49 PM)

  SB favs that scored more than 31pts in each of their last 2 playoff games:

   2-0 s/u
   2-0 ats
   2-0 o/u

   Well, well, well...look who it is.  You Pats fans enjoy that one.  Both 4th-Qtr comebacks.

   Dumb Seattle didn't run the ball...& lost by passing.
   Dumber Atlanta didn't run the ball...& lost by passing.

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/29/2019 8:16:31 PM)

  Not that it matters, but here are opening lines as reported by VI:

   scan down to WestGate & Rams opened at -1 & 58

   within a matter of 5min, it went to pick'em & 59

   4min later it went to NE-1

   5min later it went to NE-1'

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/29/2019 9:10:27 PM)

  I keep dealing with the thought that this game all depends on what the NFL wants.  And I cannot answer that question.

   Maybe they don't want the Rams to win, just for that non-call in the CC game.  Some kinda' justice I guess.  I dunno'.

   I bet BB & TB do target Nickell Robey-Coleman, just to see what happens...[8|]

   Of note:  I keep hearing 'there's going to be tons of scoring in this game'

   the last 2 SB's went Over & 5 of the last 6 went Over

   but I'm not so sure about that...neither of these teams have played on that field yet.

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/30/2019 11:40:28 PM)

  There is only 1 other SB dog besides the Rams that had an avg line of more than -7.5 during the reg season:

   The Seahawks in '13

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 12:16:53 AM)

  I still have a bunch of stuff to post & I will by Sat., just haven't had the time yet.  But I do want to add a few things here.  Including the playoffs, both teams played 18 games this season.

   9 of the Rams 18 games were vs playoff teams

   7 of the Patriots 18 games were vs playoff teams

   The Rams had 3 losses:

   @ the Saints...a playoff team

   @ the Bears...a playoff team

   vs the Eagles...a playoff team...& a team that beat the Bears on the road & almost beat the Saints on the road

   I don't care what team it is...the Rams or can put any of the 32 NFL teams in that spot:

   That's stout.

   On the other hand, the Patriots:

   lost by 11 @ the Jags...forgiveable, as it was early & Jags had 'playoff payback'

   lost by 16 @ the Lions while scoring only 10pts...really?...totally unforgiveable...totally

   lost by 24 @ the Titans while scoring only 10pts...the loss is forgiveable...but to lose by -24:  totally unforgiveable &
 they literally got punked & they didn't even have 1

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 12:42:19 AM)

  just another quick note on the teams' avg line during the reg season.

   All SB teams that had an avg line of more than -7 during the reg season:

   Favs...0-5 s/u

   Dogs...2-0 s/u

   both teams qualify

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 12:59:22 AM)

  SB dogs that won their last game by less than 4pts s/u:

   4-0 s/u & ats
   0-4 o/u

bt_phins -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 12:39:39 PM)

Great stuff, Rider. Thanks for sharing, as always!

Good luck this weekend!

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 3:46:10 PM)


  Thanks.  It's one of my little escapes from the monotony of real life plus it helps keep my mind sharp...kinda'...[:D]  And every now and then, some little off-the-wall tidbit will pop up out of nowhere when you let your mind wander outside the box and look at things at angles never thought of before.
Of course, all this really doesn't matter once the game begins...[8|]  Too many unknown variables that of course...I don't know...[;)]  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Patriots win in a blowout.  One team might start dropping like flies because they're dehydrated & cramping up in that hot dome.  Etc...& so on & so on.
Anyways, best of luck back at'cha this weekend & to everyone.
p.s...I do wanna' hear "Halle Berry"...[8D]

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 3:56:37 PM)

  SB teams that have only 7 or 8 ats wins during the regular-season:

   4-0 s/u
   4-0 ats
   0-4 o/u

   There's a good balance in there.  2 NFC teams, 2 AFC teams, 1 Fav, 3 Dogs.

   4 SB's over a 10-year span...'06 to ' 5 in 13.

   teams allowed 17, 17, 17 & 10 points.

Michelangelo -> RE: SB stuff (1/31/2019 6:09:28 PM)

Win or lose, I always appreciate your work, X.

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 9:00:48 AM)


   BOL my friend...[;)]  I will be watching the game tonight after all.  Yes...I've caved...[:D]  I found some interest in how this young 33yr old HC from GA with generational ties to the 49'ers dynasty does in this chess game against the master of all time...BB.


bigtiger -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 9:04:36 AM)

Thanks for all your work Rider!

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 9:29:37 AM)

  Well, we don't have the #1-scoring offense; we don't have the #1-scoring defense & we don't have the league's MVP in the SB this year.

   But we do have the Defensive MVP of the year...Aaron Donald.

   So, of course, just out of curiousity I dug to see how SB teams with the D' MVP did in the big game.

   This marks the 14th time this has happened.  And SB teams with the D' MVP are:

   11-2 s/ the previous 13.

   9 of the previous 13 did it only once

   they are 8-1 s/u...the only s/u loss was '90 Buff...missing last second FG wide-right, losing by 1pt...20-19

   1 team did it 4 times...Pitt...they were 3-1 s/u...losing the 4th time vs GB, who took a 14-0 1st-Qtr lead, Pitt came back to within 3...25-28...ultimately losing 31-25 as they went 4 & out on their last poss., with 3 straight incomplete passes.

   The NFC has done it only 5 times of the previous 13.

   They are 5-0 s/u & ats...[8|]

   And the games weren't even close:

   They all scored 27pts or more...4 of the 5 scored 39pts or more...3 of the 5 scored 46pts or more...[>:]

   Winning s/u by:  17, 36, 19, 23 & 27

   All 5 NFC blowouts...[X(]

   The Rams are now only the 6th NFC team with the D' MVP in the SB.

   That little nugget really surprised me.

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 9:40:05 AM)

  That last stat really opened my eyes.  I've learned in the NFL to 'expect the unexpected' & know one I've talked to or seen or heard 'expects' a Rams blowout.

   I gotta' think about this & look at some serious SB props & alternate lines.  Also, if that holds true, my play on the Under is in serious jeopardy.

   The last 4 total points scored were:  56, 59, 75 & 69...[:o]...ouch!

Thomas -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 11:41:09 AM)

So when the team with the defensive player of the year from the NFC was in the SB they scored all those points, not much for D in those matchups John lol. I like the under myself and that worries me a wee bit as well as the Pats last 3 SB appearances all resulted in game overs but last year was the 1st time they scored a point in the 1st qtr, a FG. I think bigtiger is on the right path here, play the under and wait for the 1stq and see what happens and then pound the generous over at that point and go for the middle.
I'd like to bet a 1stq tt on NE but none are offered yet at my 3 books as NE has scored only those 3 points in last years game in 8 tries. I think we may see a chess game of sorts again this year with a 1stq feel out kinda thing but I worry about the 1st drive with someone going 7 plus minutes and scoring a td.

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 12:20:39 PM)


   There is a ton o'stuff I haven't posted...just not enough time.  Something I actually forgot about that I've written down is this:

   The Rams haven't played a non-conf (vs AFC) game since week 11 & they were also 4-0 s/u vs the AFC this season.

   SB dogs that went 4-0 vs non-conf opp. during the reg. season are:

   3-0 s/u & ats
   0-3 o/u

   *****There were points scored in the 1st-Qtr:  10, 9 & 10

   *****Those 3 teams owned the 2nd-half...especially the 4th-Qtr...[8|]

   And something I had forgotten about until now is:  Those 3 teams all played their 4 non-conf games before week 12

   The Rams are the 4th

Riderx -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 1:39:58 PM)

  I know it's a stretch on the D' MVP in the SB but I can't avoid the fact that teams other than Pitt are 8-1 s/u in the SB & that only s/u loss was by 1pt...

   of those previous 5 NFC teams...a defensive player won the SB MVP 3 times...a QB twice.

   of those previous 5 NFC teams, the league's D' MVP was:

   a linebacker 3 times

   a cornerback once

   a defensive tackle once

   Aaron Donald is a DT

   The only DT that won the league's D' MVP for the NFC also won the SB MVP

   all the way back to '77...Harvey Martin won both...(shared the SB MVP with Randy White)

   Aaron Donald +1600 as SB MVP

   those previous 5 NFC teams had:

   4 sacks
   7 sacks
   4 sacks
   2 sacks
   5 sacks

   Rams over 1' sacks...-145

   Those nFC teams had:

   143 rush yards
   167 rush yards
   136 rush yards
   139 rush yards
   150 rush yards

   do whatever you want with the Rams rush yards

   Those NFC teams snagged:

   4 ints
   2 ints
   1 int
   3 ints
   5 ints

   Rams snag over 1' ints

   This is the only kinda' stuff that keeps me interested in this game at all.

bukweat -> RE: SB stuff (2/3/2019 2:10:01 PM)

Great stuff as always Rida. Lot good info Thank you, I personally cannot pull the trigger against the Pats, but I have plenty of props.

Best Of Luck !!!!!!!


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