World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (Full Version)

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taxi driver -> World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/5/2005 9:04:18 PM)

Okay here it is, the World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! I've been using this since 1983 and posting it at the forums since 1998.

The good news is that it hasn't had a loser since 1977 in the Baltimore Colts-Minnesota Vikings game. The flip side is that it does not come up very often. But when it does, take it to the BANK!

It is ATLEAST 12-0 since 1978, and I know it's got more winners out there that I simply cannot remember. If you have a database that goes back farther than 1989 and is capable of running the criteria, by all means please post those missing winners.

I have it at 9-0 since 1989 according to a database and an additional 3-0 by memory. I need the results from the years of 1978-1988 to get a full and accurate record. Here's the criteria followed by the results...


*GO AGAINST ANY NFL TEAM IF THEY SCORED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN EACH OF THEIR LAST TWO GAMES AND ALLOWED 12 OR LESS POINTS IN THOSE SAME TWO GAMES....."IF"....THEY ARE NOW PLAYING A TEAM OUTSIDE OF THEIR DIVISION. THAT'S IT. THE LAST TIME IT CAME UP WAS 2001, SO IT'S DUE!


1992
CHIEFS (+2 ) 24, Eagles 17.....WIN
OILERS (+6') 17, Vikings 13.....WIN

1993
Bengals (+23') 8, 49ERS 21.....WIN

1996
49ers (+6) 20, PACKERS 23.....WIN
COWBOYS (-5') 6, Patriots 0.....WIN

1999
COLTS (-4) 25, Chiefs 17.....WIN
EAGLES (+8) 38, Rams 31.....WIN

2000 Jets (+7) 21, BUCS 17.....WIN

2001 Giants (+10') 14, RAMS 15.....WIN


There's more, but sportsdatabase.com only goes back to 1989. By memory I know the last loser was in 1977. I recall a few winners off the top of my head...

CHARGERS (+4) 35, Steelers 7.....WIN (1979--I think; maybe '78)

I recall an Eagles-Dolphins Matchup in the early 80's...14-point underdog missed an extra point that would've sent the game into overtime and lost by only 1-point for the easy cover.

And because I had a decent sized play--for my standards--on the following Monday Nighter, I distincly remember this one.....

1985: DOLPHINS (+4) 38, Bears 24.....WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!

Remember that one? Bears were undefeated at the time. They were coming off a 44-0 Thanksgiving Day whipping of the Cowboys and a subsequent 36-0 whipping of the Falcons.

Man, if these plays would come up once a month, I'd never work again.....

Good luck and have fun...

dave




cruisin -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/5/2005 9:16:12 PM)

Dave, will you post the play when it comes up?




taxi driver -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/5/2005 11:01:38 PM)




If it comes is probably the more likely scenario...let's hope we get one this season...

yes,
I'll post it...

dave




Bettingfool -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 12:35:50 AM)

"THE LAST TIME IT CAME UP WAS 2001, SO IT'S DUE"
Well, no doubt about that but a question for you.

Does this system apply when the team is starting a left handed qb, in his option year, playing a night game for the 2nd week of last 3, at home, on grass, with a jersey number of 12 or less, whose agent's first name is NOT Drew or Tom, who drives a German luxury car, with a girlfriend that is a natural blonde that has NOT had any enhancement surgery below the neck

OR

is it the other way around?
___________________________

Just kidding, no offense intended. Remember, it's preseason south of Canada.




Thomas -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 1:23:53 AM)

Thanxs Taxi




taxi driver -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 8:37:47 PM)



Betting Fool,

You've got it all wrong man. It's neither. It only applies on Thursdays (evenings) if it's snowing in Detroit.

dave




taxi driver -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 8:46:36 PM)




System rationale:

When I first started capping in 1981, I use to read different systems and stuff printed each year in various handicapping publications. One of the things that caught my attention was the old 30-30 system. The Professor also had an array of various 10-10 theories.

I put the two together and did some research and it made sense to me, so I went with it. If a team performs that well for two back to back games, a letdown makes sense. Especially if they are playing a game of lesser importance.

The fact that it rarely comes up in the NFL is evidence of just how hard it is to "peak out" for 2 back to back games. I admit it is really hard to zig just when you think you ought to be zagging, but I have cashed in on this every single time it came up since 1981.

Hey, I just remembered another one. In 1995 the Detroit Lions ended the regular season with a 44-0 win and 37-10 win. Then the following week they were a 3-point fave at Philly. The game was over at halftime, but the Lions stormed back in the second half to make it a close game...losing 37-58.

Thanks for posting. Good Luck...

dave




Alpine -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 11:29:32 PM)

I too have followed this system since reading it on Sillysports.com.
Here's the difference.

I used it for any team that scored 30 and gave up less than 12.
This had verygood results but not the kind you have.
I'll have to watch for the "outside of their division"

For those of you who don't know here's the reasoning behind this system.

The offence cannot keep scoring so many points game after game.
On the other side of the ball is even harder. Trying to hold NFL teams to under 13 points 3 weeks in a row is a pretty tall order.

There it is.

Thanks Taxi for reminding me of an old faithful system.




Alpine -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/6/2005 11:33:25 PM)

Almost forgot

Bettingfool...she has to be a Red Head




taxi driver -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/7/2005 8:57:31 AM)



I first published this system in 1989 in a nationwide sports betting magazine. At that time it had never been printed, even though I am sure there were a handful of cappers that kept tabs on it.

In fact, when the magazine hit the racks, I got two phone calls from a couple of other services who basicly "went off" on me for printing it. "The Duke" cussed my out and told me, quote, "That kinda' stuff is for 'us'!" I said, "Who's 'us'?" He hung up.

I began posting it on the web every year since 1998 and now it's reprinted everywhere. Heck, I've found articles of mine reprinted (word for word) years after I originally printed them with someone else's name on it.

My Hot Offense theory was printed in 1986. In 1989 it showed up in a magazine under a different title (Fireworks System) and was written word for word the way I wrote the original article. I called the publisher John and he simply said, "Yeah, Tony's (Salinas) got a bad rep for doing that". Whatever. I just wanted to get it out to the public and use it as a promo.

dave




Alpine -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/7/2005 12:45:11 PM)

taxi what other systems do you have? I'd love to see them.





Number Freak -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/7/2005 5:16:28 PM)

It's not much but I could go back four more years which adds two more wins. One was the Bears game you mentioned in '85, the other from '88.

1988
PHI (+6) 21, Min 23....WIN (9/25); Min had won 36-6 and 31-7

1985 (you mentioned this one)
MIA (+4) 38, Chi 24....WIN (12/2); Chi had won 44-0 and 36-0


So, 11-0 ATS since 1985.

A couple observations about this: I wouldn't include the play against game being a playoff game like the one you mentioned in 1995. You're right, the criteria fits but it should also be a regular season game. I'm assuming the reason to eliminate division games is because teams have more incentive in those games, so a playoff game would give even more incentive.

Another thing, the reason this has so few plays is also because of the 30 and 12-point limitations. Just from browsing through the years 1985-1988, if the points scored parameter was reduced to 28 instead of 30, you would add a few more wins that I saw. It wouldn't be a perfect system anymore probably, but you would produce more plays and still probably at a high win rate.

I had to manually search these criteria and it takes some time, otherwise I'd search the 28 and 12 parameters. Anyone able to do this easier?




taxi driver -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (8/8/2005 7:03:48 PM)



Thanks number freak for researching that. Alpine, I've been posting stuff on the net at talksport and other forums since '98. There is no telling how much stuff is out there. I think some of my old stuff that was posted at ts is lost in archives...y2K???? I don't know...

dt




DJP -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/7/2012 10:07:34 PM)

Bump.




Michelangelo -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 7:03:43 AM)

Dave,

Where are you? We miss ya, bro. Bumping a thread from 2005 is the ultimate tribute.

Hope all is well.




Big Tyme -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 8:23:38 AM)

Looks like the 49ers fall into this as we head into week 6.

Sep 30 @N.Y. Jets Won 34-0
Oct 7 Buffalo Won 45-3
Oct 14 N.Y. Giants 4:25 pm

So it looks like a play ON the GIANTS!




PLAYER -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 8:33:21 AM)

[8D][8D][8D][8D][8D][8D][8D][8D][8D]=THOMAS,,,,,what izzzzzz da TEXT for DAT????

OUT of DIVISION is the hard part for me






Thomas -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 10:31:38 AM)

p:points>=30 and pp:points>=30 and po:points<=10 and ppo:points<=10 and division!=o:division and playoffs=0

http://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?sid=guest&sort=ATS_PL&text=p%3Apoints%3E%3D30+and+pp%3Apoints%3E%3D30+and+po%3Apoints%3C%3D10+and+ppo%3Apoints%3C%3D10+and+division!%3Do%3Adivision+and+playoffs%3D0&submit=query

Or you can use the short cut NDIV for out of division

p:points>=30 and pp:points>=30 and po:points<=10 and ppo:points<=10 and NDIV and playoffs=0






Kenman -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 12:43:44 PM)

Taxi Driver trend is the main course ... and here the desert from the bible  [:D][:D][:D]

Teams that had 220 + yards on the ground more than their opponents, and no more than 27 extra rushing attempts, and kept the ball for at least 31 minutes, are 0-15 ATS the following week.

submit=query

p:rushing yards>po:rushing yards+220 and 1860<=p:time of possession and p:rushes<po:rushes+28

PLAY ON: NYG+6 WK6 (against SF)




odoggx21 -> RE: World's Greatest NFL System...EVER! (10/8/2012 1:27:28 PM)

same here I have followed this system as well. This system alone is what attracted me to this wonderful forum. Thanks for the reminder guys





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